Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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688 FXUS64 KAMA 050905 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 405 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Showers and storms have been ongoing overnight in relation to a weak shortwave moving through the region, the stationary boundary lingering in the vicinity, the lift from the right entrance region of a 100kt 300mb jet. This all has been enough to bring mainly showers to the Oklahoma Panhandle, but thunderstorms really blossomed after 1am across the central and eastern Panhandles. Expect that this activity should continue into the morning hours. Rainfall amounts have been picking up this morning with the winner so far being the Lake McClellan mesonet at nearly 2 inches of rain. As storms that may be slow moving or train over the same locations, they could bring some locally heavy rainfall and lead to flash flooding concerns. This activity should shift south and east through the morning but the area remains under the trough axis through Saturday. Thanks to the increase in rain and cloud cover, conditions look to be rather cool and below normal. Highs are forecast to range from the mid 70s in the west to the lower 80s in the east. While there looks to be a lull in precipitation activity during the afternoon today, another wave this evening may bring additional showers and storms to the western Panhandle. These storms should diminish during the late night hours and not linger much overnight. For Saturday, the upper trough still will be lingering in the area, just to our east. Thanks to the surface high also to our east, moisture will continue to increase across the region. A surface low will be developing to our north across KS/CO/NE. This will help to generate storms to our north, but outflow from this activity could generate showers and storms across the forecast area during the afternoon. The main concerns would be damaging wind gusts and some isolated hail as mid level lapse rates should be steep (around or exceeding 7 C/km) and wind shear around 30-40kts. Much of the forecast area has been outlooked for a marginal risk to account for this activity. Culin && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 On Sunday, with the upper trough still sitting to our east, a perturbation within that mid level flow will traverse out of Colorado and into the Oklahoma. Another surface low looks to develop just to our north and west and a front is forecast to come south into and through the forecast area. The best combination of moisture, instability may reside across the eastern Panhandles and into Oklahoma, and this is where strong to severe storms may be possible during the late afternoon and evening hours. MUCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg, 40-45kts of deep layer shear and steep midlevel lapse rates nearing or exceeding 8C/km should yield some threat for large hail and damaging winds. Through the week, the 500mb through will be lingering in the area, resulting on general northwest flow aloft. This will continue to bring potential for rain and storms to the region through the week, mostly diurnal but some potential remains for storms to linger overnight. By Tuesday into Wednesday, the upper trough looks to begin to absorb the landing tropical cyclone Beryl and finally exit to the east. As this occurs, the upper ridge to our west looks like it wants to move to the east, but may be delayed in doing so until the pesky trough finally moves later in the week. The resulting pattern will be moderating high temperatures back closer to normal and some small, at this time, potential for showers and storms. Culin && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR conditions are currently in place at all TAF sites this morning, but expect this to change over the next few hours. MVFR ceilings should move into KAMA and KDHT by 08Z. The question also becomes do overnight showers and storms affect TAF sites and which ones. At this time, the current model guidance suggests that KGUY and KDHT have the better potential to see showers and storms by around 09-15Z and have included VCSH in the forecast for now. This will need to be monitored as the night goes on, but it is possible KAMA will be on the fringe of activity. Winds will be out of the northeast overnight, switching out of the east by morning and then out of the southeast through the day. Speeds will be around 10-15kts. Culin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 79 61 87 66 / 60 20 20 30 Beaver OK 83 61 89 64 / 30 0 10 40 Boise City OK 79 57 87 60 / 30 20 20 20 Borger TX 85 64 92 68 / 60 20 20 30 Boys Ranch TX 81 61 90 66 / 50 30 20 30 Canyon TX 77 61 87 65 / 50 30 20 30 Clarendon TX 79 63 86 67 / 60 20 20 30 Dalhart TX 79 58 88 61 / 40 30 20 20 Guymon OK 82 59 88 63 / 30 10 20 40 Hereford TX 79 61 89 66 / 50 40 20 20 Lipscomb TX 84 61 89 67 / 50 0 10 40 Pampa TX 80 61 86 66 / 50 10 20 30 Shamrock TX 83 63 88 67 / 60 10 10 30 Wellington TX 83 63 89 68 / 60 10 10 30 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM....28 AVIATION...28