Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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296 FXUS64 KAMA 052358 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 658 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The upper level pattern remains mostly unchanged from the setup we have experienced in the previous few days. The 500 mb trough slowly advances towards the southeast, but our northwest flow regime should continue through the short term period. New disturbances from the southern Rockies will provide more support for thunderstorm activity today and tomorrow. A few mesoscale parameters will alter the impacts of timing and strength each day, resulting in dissimilar scenarios on where PoP coverage will reside. Today, temperatures are slowly rising across the CWA. Upper 70`s to mid 80`s are the forecasted highs today, as a BKN cloud deck overspreads the western Panhandles while some clearing finally unfolds in the east. Thunderstorm chances have been reduced for the afternoon and evening timeframe. Instead overnight convection looks to be the main concern leading into Saturday. The trough that is setup east of the New Mexico mountain range shows a much slower progression with storms, so activity should not begin for Texas until after midnight. Elevated storms are expected early Saturday morning with enough effective CAPE and limited CIN for them to continue into sunrise. General thunder is expected with the bands of storms tonight, with severe probs being quite limited. Tomorrow, warmer surface temperatures are like area wide. Upper 80`s and lower 90`s are predicted for high temperatures. A new shortwave trough should move in from the northwest and generate a line of storms ahead of it, with the highest confidence for PoPs and severe probabilities favoring the northern Panhandles. Storms are progged to exit the region before 7AM Sunday. Rangel && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Starting the coming weekend into early next week, our rain chances continue. Latest 05/12Z model and numerical guidance shows a H500 high build across the Sierra Nevada range with H500 NNW flow into the Panhandles. This will result in daily diurnal convection moving SSE from the CO/NM high terrain into portions of the Panhandles each day. Some storms could be strong to severe with strong wind gusts and locally heavy rain being the main threats. Especially on Sunday night into Monday in particular, a cold front moving south could be the focus for strong to severe storms as it move south. Towards the end of the forecast period, the aforementioned H500 high pressure will shift towards the northern Rockies. With resultant anemic easterly and northeasterly H500 flow into the Panhandles, the axis of better moisture transport and overall lift should stay north of the Panhandles, bringing dry conditions back to the Panhandles. Temperatures will be below average on Monday behind the passing front. Otherwise, temperatures will be near average for the remainder of the forecast period. Meccariello && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 649 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 For the 00Z TAFs, some potential exists for another round of showers and thunderstorms to move into the western sections later this evening and tonight from eastern New Mexico. However, coverage is expected to be much less and more isolated so have opted not to mention any precipitation at the terminal sites tonight. The next round of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to impact the area just beyond this forecast cycle. 02 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 61 89 66 95 / 20 20 20 20 Beaver OK 60 92 63 87 / 0 10 30 50 Boise City OK 58 90 61 85 / 10 20 20 20 Borger TX 63 95 69 98 / 10 10 20 30 Boys Ranch TX 61 93 65 96 / 20 20 20 10 Canyon TX 60 88 64 95 / 20 10 20 20 Clarendon TX 62 88 67 94 / 10 10 20 30 Dalhart TX 58 90 61 90 / 20 10 10 10 Guymon OK 58 91 62 87 / 10 10 30 30 Hereford TX 61 90 65 96 / 30 20 20 10 Lipscomb TX 61 92 66 90 / 0 0 30 50 Pampa TX 60 89 66 92 / 10 10 20 40 Shamrock TX 61 90 68 94 / 10 10 20 40 Wellington TX 63 91 68 96 / 10 10 10 30 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...02