756
FXUS61 KALY 070030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
830 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will end this
evening, followed by dry conditions tonight into Sunday.
Humidity levels will be slightly lower on Sunday, but very warm
temperatures will persist. Above normal temperatures will
continue through early next week, with humid conditions
returning. The next chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives
Tuesday, as a frontal system approaches form the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
.UPDATE...As of 830 PM EDT, heat advisory has been allowed to
expire, as heat indices have generally dropped into the mid 80s
to lower 90s and will keep falling this evening.

Weak cold front was now settling south and east of Albany,
extending into the northeast Catskills and into SW VT. Latest
SPC Mesoanalysis indicates decreasing ML CAPES, generally under
500 J/kg for areas west of the Hudson River, and 500-1500 J/kg
to the east, highest across NW CT.

Will have to watch for any additional convection as the front
continues sagging southeast into the Taconics, Berkshires, and
especially Litchfield County where greatest reservoir of
instability remains, despite some earlier convection. However,
with sunset occurring, overall instability should decrease over
the next 1-2 hours.

Based on mesoanalysis, will keep PoPs for areas remaining
southeast of the front, but only in the slight chance to low
chance range due to expected limited coverage. Will also keep
mention of gusty winds with thunderstorms for another couple of
hours. Elsewhere, chances of additional showers/thunderstorms
has ended.

Otherwise, gradual decrease in humidity levels is expected from
NW to SE this evening, most noticeable for areas along and north
of I-90, and west of I-87.

PREVIOUS [315 PM EDT]...A weak cool front will continue to
slowly move eastward across the area into this evening, with an
upper level short wave tracking east across the lower Great
Lakes. This will continue to result in just enough forcing for
widely scattered showers/T-storms into early evening.
Environment continues to support an threat of isolated severe
storms producing damaging wind gusts. SPC Mesoanalysis
indicating 1000-1500 J/Kg MLCAPE and 50-60 kt of effective
shear. The Storm Prediction has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
of severe storms. Poor mid level lapse rates and moist
environment with high freezing levels mitigate hail threat, but
locally heavy rainfall will occur with isolated flash flooding
possible where any persistent or repeated downpours occur. The
heat risk lowers after sunset, with humidity levels dropping
slightly in wake of the front. Low temperatures should range
from the upper 50s in the Adirondacks to upper 60s in the mid
Hudson Valley. Patchy fog will may occur, especially for
locations that receive rainfall today.

Sunday looks to be a quiet day with a broad SW flow aloft and
surface high pressure building in from the west. Subsidence
should halt any convective development, with just some fair
weather cumulus clouds around. A warm air mass will be in place
with 850 mb temperature anomalies around +1 STDEV, so with
sufficient sunshine highs should reach the mid to upper 80s in
lower elevations, with cooler upper 70s to lower 80s in the
higher terrain. Humidity levels will be lower than recent days,
with dewpoints mainly in the lower to mid 60s.

Surface high pressure will be positioned over the region Sun
night, with flat ridging aloft. It should be mostly clear with
lows ranging from mid 50s in the Adirondacks to mid 60s in the
Hudson Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday should be another rain-free day with surface high
pressure in place and flat ridging aloft. Tempertures will be
slightly warmer as 850 mb temperature anomalies rise to a solid
+1 to +2 STDEV. Humidity levels will also be creeping up into
the upper 60s to near 70, so max heat indices may reach or
slightly exceed 95F in the mid Hudson Valley. A Heat Advisory
may eventually be needed. Actual highs look to be in the lower
90s in the lower elevations. Dry, but warm/humid conditions
expected Mon night with lows in the 60s to around 70.

The next chance of showers/T-storms arrives Tue as a frontal
system and upper level trough approach from the Great Lakes.
There are timing differences in the guidance, so it is unclear
when convection will initiate yet. Some guidance has the upper
trough lagging farther back to the west which delays showers and
storms until later in the day into evening, which is more in
line with NBM favoring likely PoPs during this time. Depending
on timing and eventual instability/shear parameters, there could
be some stronger storms. Also locally heavy rainfall may occur
due to anomalously high PWATs (increasing to +1 to +2 STDEV).
Prior to convection developing, the combination of temperatures
in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the lower 70s could yield max
heat indices the mid/upper 90s in valley locations.

Scattered to numerous showers and T-storms expected to persist
into Tue night depending on the timing of the upper level trough
moving in. It will remain warm and humid with lows in the 60s
to around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Latest guidance indicating the aforementioned front may stall
somewhere across the southern part of the area on Wed, so will
need to maintain a chance of showers and T-storms. Temperatures
will be somewhat cooler, especially north of the front, but
still slightly above normal with mid to upper 80s in lower
elevations.

Forecast confidence then decreases considerably in the Thu to
Sat timeframe. The main question is where the remnant
circulation of post-tropical cyclone Beryl ends up going, as it
potentially interacts with the front in the Northeast. Some
guidance has it tracking NE across the Tenn/Ohio Valley regions
into Thu, then into the lower Great Lakes Thu night into Fri.
Depending on the track, this could bring widespread and
potentially heavy rainfall given its tropical origin. Will
continue to monitor trends and mention mainly chance PoPs for
now until forecast confidence increases.

Slightly above normal temperatures and relatively humid
conditions should persist through the long term period, with
above normal temperatures continuing to be favored further out
in the 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR flying conditions expected this afternoon but given
how humid it is, isolated showers and thunderstorms have develop
this afternoon mainly away from the terminals. However, with
aggregated cumulus in place and a weak boundary approaching,
the atmosphere is primed for scattered showers and storms to
form this afternoon. Included TEMPO groups at all the terminals
for brief IFR visibilities and MVFR ceilings to occur during any
thunderstorm. For ALB, POU, and GFL, we have the TEMPO group
from 18 UTC to 00 UTC during any storm with PSF delayed a bit
until 20 UTC to 01 UTC. A few storms may linger until 01 - 03
UTC but given low confidence, we ended the TEMPO group at 00 to
01 UTC for all the sites.

Showers and storms end before Midnight with clearing skies
thereafter. Any terminal that experiences rain this afternoon
will likely see fog develop as the low-levels remain moist.
We show MVFR visibilities at ALB and POU from 06 - 12 UTC with
IFR visibilities at GFL and PSF. Any fog lifts by 12-13 UTC at
the latest with VFR conditions the remainder of the TAF period.

Southerly winds ranging 5-9kts this afternoon become light and
variable after 00 UTC. Then, winds shift out of the west to
northwest by 15-16 UTC becoming sustained 5-8kts.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL/Speciale