578
FXUS61 KALY 052008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
408 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A nearby frontal boundary will drift northward as a warm
front overnight, bringing some showers and thunderstorms. A
weakening cold front will bring additional showers and
thunderstorms Saturday, especially during the morning. The front
will move east of the region by Sunday, with fair weather
returning. Despite the frontal passage, very warm temperatures
will continue into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 405 PM EDT, clusters of showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms continue to track east northeast across the
Capital Region/eastern Catskills into the Berkshires and
southern VT. Greatest coverage remains near and just south of
I-90. Locally heavy downpours could produce rainfall rates of up
to 1 inch/hour.

Some gusty winds could accompany any isolated stronger storms,
which would be most likely across portions of Ulster, Dutchess
and Litchfield Counties where ML CAPES are 1000+ J/kg (pockets
of SB CAPES of bear 3000 J/kg across Litchfield County). Warm
temperatures aloft/weak mid level lapse have tempered storm
depth thus far, but can not rule out a couple of stronger storms
in these areas through sunset.

There may be a brief lull in showers/thunderstorms later this
evening, however showers/thunderstorms should redevelop closer
to daybreak across western areas, as a possible MCV-like feature
approaches from the southwest.

Otherwise, warm and humid tonight with lows in the lower/mid 70s
in valley areas, and 65-70 across the southern Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Heat Advisory for mid Hudson Valley region 1 PM to 8 PM EDT
Saturday...

Aforementioned disturbance should track across the region
during Saturday morning. Latest CAMs suggest area of heaviest
rain and embedded convection may track from Schoharie
County/Mohawk Valley region into Saratoga/Glens Falls and and
southern VT during the morning. HREFs suggest 50-70% probability
for rainfall amounts of >1 inch/3 hours in this region, along
with ~10% for 3 inches/3 hours. SB CAPES should remain under
1000 J/kg, however can not rule out some stronger wind gusts
reaching the surface, especially closer to or just south of
I-90.

The core of this feature should shift northeast of the region
during the afternoon. However, the tail end of this disturbance
may trigger additional showers/thunderstorms for areas mainly
south and east of Albany during the afternoon. HREF mean MU
CAPES exceed 2000 J/kg across the mid Hudson Valley into NW CT
with 25-30+ KT of 0-6 km shear. Will have to watch for
strong/isolated severe thunderstorms within these areas.

Additional isolated/scattered showers/thunderstorms could
redevelop across the Mohawk Valley and SW Adirondacks toward
sunset, closer to actual surface cold front approaching.
However, significant mid level dry air may limit coverage.

High temperatures should reach 85-90 in valley areas and mid 70s
to lower/mid 80s in higher terrain areas. Heat Indices may reach
the mid to upper 90s across portions of the mid Hudson Valley
during the afternoon hours, especially as dewpoints reach the
mid 70s. Dewpoints may drop off across the Capital Region and
Mohawk Valley during the afternoon hours in the wake of morning
disturbance, which may keep heat indices slightly lower.

Some evening showers/storms may linger across SE areas Saturday
evening, followed by some clearing skies. Patchy fog could form
in some areas which receive prior rainfall. Lows in the mid 60s
to around 70, except for some 50s across the SW Adirondacks.

Mostly sunny skies expected for Sunday, with slightly less humid
conditions in the wake of weak cold front. It will remain very
warm, however, with max temps still reaching 85-90 in most
valley areas and upper 70s to lower 80s across higher
elevations. Mostly clear Sunday night, with lows mainly in the
60s for valleys and 50s across higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Fair and very warm for Monday, with high temps reaching the mid
80s to lower 90s. Heat indices could approach the mid 90s across
portions of the mid Hudson Valley.

Humidity levels increase Monday night into Tuesday ahead of next
incoming cold front for midweek. Showers and thunderstorms will
increase in coverage, with best chances during the
afternoon/evening hours Tuesday into Wednesday. There is
increasing uncertainty regarding whether the front slows down
and/or dissipates near the region later next week. Should this
occur, chances for showers/thunderstorms will persist into
Thursday and Friday, along with above normal temperatures and
fairly high humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak cold front supporting some scattered showers later this
afternoon, mainly at KALB, where TEMPO included for MVFR
visibilities through about 21Z. Just VCSH at KGFL, KPSF and
KPOU.

There should be a break in the rain this evening but more showers
and thunderstorms develop and increase in coverage between about
midnight and 10Z Saturday at all TAF sites. The best chances for
showers and thunderstorms is between about 09Z-15Z Saturday, where
MVFR visibilities and MVFR ceilings are indicated. Some IFR ceilings
and visibilities possible at KPSF. After about 13Z-15Z Saturday,
most of the showers will exit but there could still a few scattered
showers around, so including VCSH through 18Z Saturday.

Winds will be variable e but mainly south to southwest at less than
10 Kt this afternoon, diminishing to less than 6 Kt tonight and
continuing at less than 6 Kt Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As a disturbance tracks across the region late tonight into
Saturday morning, unusually high moisture content (PWAT`s
approaching/exceeding 2 inches) will allow for locally heavy
downpours to occur. Should multiple rounds of heavy downpours
occur in any given location, ponding of water in urban/poor
drainage and low lying areas would be possible, along with
possible isolated flash flooding.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ059-060-
     064-065.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL