043
FXUS61 KALY 060112
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
912 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A nearby frontal boundary will drift northward as a warm
front overnight, bringing some showers and thunderstorms. A
weakening cold front will bring additional showers and
thunderstorms Saturday, especially during the morning. The front
will move east of the region by Sunday, with fair weather
returning. Despite the frontal passage, very warm temperatures
will continue into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 830 PM EDT, areas of slow moving thunderstorms producing
impressive heavy rainfall amounts have impacted Litchfield
County this evening. MRMS, dual-pol and ground truth stations
show a large swatch of 1 to 3 inches of rain over much of the
county with a bulls-eye of 3 to 3.50 inches between Warren and
Litchfield. Even more impressive, much of this rain within a few
short hours. Despite the heavy rain amount, flooding impacts
have been rather minimal based on social media reports and 911
dispatch centers. This is likely due to the recent dry stretch
in NW CT and the area being heavily forested. We have issued a
few flood advisory to message poor drainage flooding but have
held off on any Flash Flood Warning given lack of impacts.

Luckily, this cluster of storms and heavy rain is finally
exiting to the east and should be out of the region by 10pm.

In its wake, we should have dry break through about Midnight but
additional clusters of storms from Central NY are tracking
northeastward and high res guidance suggests storms could clip
the western Mohawk Valley and the western Adirondacks by 04 -
07 UTC so continue to show high chance and low end likely POPs
here. Otherwise, mostly cloudy and very humid overnight. Areas
where rain fell overnight could easily see fog and low stratus
develop especially as breaks in the clouds develop. Overnight
lows will only drop into the upper 60s to low 70s.

Otherwise, still watching for a more widespread period of rain
and embedded storms early tomorrow morning reaching the eastern
Catskills and mid-Hudson Valley by 10 - 12 UTC.

Previous discussion...There may be a brief lull in showers/thunderstorms
later this evening, however showers/thunderstorms should
redevelop closer to daybreak across western areas, as a possible
MCV-like feature approaches from the southwest.

Otherwise, warm and humid tonight with lows in the lower/mid 70s
in valley areas, and 65-70 across the southern Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Heat Advisory for mid Hudson Valley region 1 PM to 8 PM EDT
Saturday...

Aforementioned disturbance should track across the region
during Saturday morning. Latest CAMs suggest area of heaviest
rain and embedded convection may track from Schoharie
County/Mohawk Valley region into Saratoga/Glens Falls and and
southern VT during the morning. HREFs suggest 50-70% probability
for rainfall amounts of >1 inch/3 hours in this region, along
with ~10% for 3 inches/3 hours. SB CAPES should remain under
1000 J/kg, however can not rule out some stronger wind gusts
reaching the surface, especially closer to or just south of
I-90.

The core of this feature should shift northeast of the region
during the afternoon. However, the tail end of this disturbance
may trigger additional showers/thunderstorms for areas mainly
south and east of Albany during the afternoon. HREF mean MU
CAPES exceed 2000 J/kg across the mid Hudson Valley into NW CT
with 25-30+ KT of 0-6 km shear. Will have to watch for
strong/isolated severe thunderstorms within these areas.

Additional isolated/scattered showers/thunderstorms could
redevelop across the Mohawk Valley and SW Adirondacks toward
sunset, closer to actual surface cold front approaching.
However, significant mid level dry air may limit coverage.

High temperatures should reach 85-90 in valley areas and mid 70s
to lower/mid 80s in higher terrain areas. Heat Indices may reach
the mid to upper 90s across portions of the mid Hudson Valley
during the afternoon hours, especially as dewpoints reach the
mid 70s. Dewpoints may drop off across the Capital Region and
Mohawk Valley during the afternoon hours in the wake of morning
disturbance, which may keep heat indices slightly lower.

Some evening showers/storms may linger across SE areas Saturday
evening, followed by some clearing skies. Patchy fog could form
in some areas which receive prior rainfall. Lows in the mid 60s
to around 70, except for some 50s across the SW Adirondacks.

Mostly sunny skies expected for Sunday, with slightly less humid
conditions in the wake of weak cold front. It will remain very
warm, however, with max temps still reaching 85-90 in most
valley areas and upper 70s to lower 80s across higher
elevations. Mostly clear Sunday night, with lows mainly in the
60s for valleys and 50s across higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Fair and very warm for Monday, with high temps reaching the mid
80s to lower 90s. Heat indices could approach the mid 90s across
portions of the mid Hudson Valley.

Humidity levels increase Monday night into Tuesday ahead of next
incoming cold front for midweek. Showers and thunderstorms will
increase in coverage, with best chances during the
afternoon/evening hours Tuesday into Wednesday. There is
increasing uncertainty regarding whether the front slows down
and/or dissipates near the region later next week. Should this
occur, chances for showers/thunderstorms will persist into
Thursday and Friday, along with above normal temperatures and
fairly high humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR conditions this evening likely deteriorate towards 03 - 06
UTC at all TAF sites as low stratus and/or patchy fog develops
resulting in MVFR conditions. Best chances for fog at POU and
PSF which experienced rain this evening and at GFL which is near
a swamp. There is potential for IFR ceilings to develop at these
sites but given low confidence only show SCT with IFR ceiling
level instead of BKN or OVC.

An area of more widespread showers and thunderstorms arrives
closer to 09 - 12 UTC with POU experiencing rain and possible
storms first before reaching ALB and PSF closer to 11 - 12 UTC
and GFL by 12-13 UTC. The best chances for a longer period of
rain and thunderstorms is between about 10Z-15Z Saturday, where
MVFR visibilities and MVFR ceilings are likely. Some IFR
ceilings and visibilities possible at KPSF. After about 13Z-15Z
Saturday, most of the showers will exit from southwest to
northeast but as a cold front approaches, a few scattered
showers and potential thunderstorms likely redevelop in the
afternoon, so we maintained VCSH through the end of the TAF
period.

Light and variable winds through about 15 UTC/Saturday. Then, in
the wake of the morning rain and convection, winds becoming
southerly and become a bit breezy sustained 7-12kts. Then, a
wind shift to the west or northwest looks likely at the very end
of the TAF period or even shortly after the TAF period ends at
GFL and ALB.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As a disturbance tracks across the region late tonight into
Saturday morning, unusually high moisture content (PWAT`s
approaching/exceeding 2 inches) will allow for locally heavy
downpours to occur. Should multiple rounds of heavy downpours
occur in any given location, ponding of water in urban/poor
drainage and low lying areas would be possible, along with
possible isolated flash flooding.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ059-060-
     064-065.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/Speciale
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS/Speciale
HYDROLOGY...KL