144
FXUS61 KALY 060252
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1052 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A nearby frontal boundary will drift northward as a warm
front overnight, bringing some showers and thunderstorms. A
weakening cold front will bring additional showers and
thunderstorms Saturday, especially during the morning. The front
will move east of the region by Sunday, with fair weather
returning. Despite the frontal passage, very warm temperatures
will continue into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 1030 PM EDT, yet another warm and very muggy night
continues across eastern NY and western New England. The heavy
rain over Litchfield County has finally exited and all flood
advisories have been canceled. With additional rain and storms
expected early Saturday morning, renewed flooding from lower
rainfall amounts is possible in NW CT as this region is now
saturated. Otherwise, widespread broken to overcast clouds and
continued southerly flow aloft will keep temperatures steady in
the 70s overnight with dew points in the low to mid 70s.

We will continue to monitor a small area of convection that is
now pushing east of I-81 and could reach our eastern Catskill
zones by Midnight or so. Not expecting severe weather but
thunderstorms can produce heavy downpours given the very moist
environment (00 UTC ALY sounding shows our freezing level over
15kft!). Continue to show chance POPs for areas east of the
Hudson through 06 UTC to account for these showers/storms.
Until these showers/storms arrive, we will continue to have a
dry break.

Previous discussion...In its wake, we should have dry break
through about Midnight but additional clusters of storms from
Central NY are tracking northeastward and high res guidance
suggests storms could clip the western Mohawk Valley and the
western Adirondacks by 04 - 07 UTC so continue to show high
chance and low end likely POPs here. Otherwise, mostly cloudy
and very humid overnight. Areas where rain fell overnight could
easily see fog and low stratus develop especially as breaks in
the clouds develop. Overnight lows will only drop into the upper
60s to low 70s.

Otherwise, still watching for a more widespread period of rain
and embedded storms early tomorrow morning reaching the eastern
Catskills and mid-Hudson Valley by 10 - 12 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Heat Advisory for mid Hudson Valley region 1 PM to 8 PM EDT
Saturday...

Aforementioned disturbance should track across the region
during Saturday morning. Latest CAMs suggest area of heaviest
rain and embedded convection may track from Schoharie
County/Mohawk Valley region into Saratoga/Glens Falls and and
southern VT during the morning. HREFs suggest 50-70% probability
for rainfall amounts of >1 inch/3 hours in this region, along
with ~10% for 3 inches/3 hours. SB CAPES should remain under
1000 J/kg, however can not rule out some stronger wind gusts
reaching the surface, especially closer to or just south of
I-90.

The core of this feature should shift northeast of the region
during the afternoon. However, the tail end of this disturbance
may trigger additional showers/thunderstorms for areas mainly
south and east of Albany during the afternoon. HREF mean MU
CAPES exceed 2000 J/kg across the mid Hudson Valley into NW CT
with 25-30+ KT of 0-6 km shear. Will have to watch for
strong/isolated severe thunderstorms within these areas.

Additional isolated/scattered showers/thunderstorms could
redevelop across the Mohawk Valley and SW Adirondacks toward
sunset, closer to actual surface cold front approaching.
However, significant mid level dry air may limit coverage.

High temperatures should reach 85-90 in valley areas and mid 70s
to lower/mid 80s in higher terrain areas. Heat Indices may reach
the mid to upper 90s across portions of the mid Hudson Valley
during the afternoon hours, especially as dewpoints reach the
mid 70s. Dewpoints may drop off across the Capital Region and
Mohawk Valley during the afternoon hours in the wake of morning
disturbance, which may keep heat indices slightly lower.

Some evening showers/storms may linger across SE areas Saturday
evening, followed by some clearing skies. Patchy fog could form
in some areas which receive prior rainfall. Lows in the mid 60s
to around 70, except for some 50s across the SW Adirondacks.

Mostly sunny skies expected for Sunday, with slightly less humid
conditions in the wake of weak cold front. It will remain very
warm, however, with max temps still reaching 85-90 in most
valley areas and upper 70s to lower 80s across higher
elevations. Mostly clear Sunday night, with lows mainly in the
60s for valleys and 50s across higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Fair and very warm for Monday, with high temps reaching the mid
80s to lower 90s. Heat indices could approach the mid 90s across
portions of the mid Hudson Valley.

Humidity levels increase Monday night into Tuesday ahead of next
incoming cold front for midweek. Showers and thunderstorms will
increase in coverage, with best chances during the
afternoon/evening hours Tuesday into Wednesday. There is
increasing uncertainty regarding whether the front slows down
and/or dissipates near the region later next week. Should this
occur, chances for showers/thunderstorms will persist into
Thursday and Friday, along with above normal temperatures and
fairly high humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions this evening likely deteriorate towards 03 - 06
UTC at all TAF sites as low stratus and/or patchy fog develops
resulting in MVFR conditions. Best chances for fog at POU and
PSF which experienced rain this evening and at GFL which is near
a swamp. There is potential for IFR ceilings to develop at these
sites but given low confidence only show SCT with IFR ceiling
level instead of BKN or OVC.

An area of more widespread showers and thunderstorms arrives
closer to 09 - 12 UTC with POU experiencing rain and possible
storms first before reaching ALB and PSF closer to 11 - 12 UTC
and GFL by 12-13 UTC. The best chances for a longer period of
rain and thunderstorms is between about 10Z-15Z Saturday, where
MVFR visibilities and MVFR ceilings are likely. Some IFR
ceilings and visibilities possible at KPSF. After about 13Z-15Z
Saturday, most of the showers will exit from southwest to
northeast but as a cold front approaches, a few scattered
showers and potential thunderstorms likely redevelop in the
afternoon, so we maintained VCSH through the end of the TAF
period.

Light and variable winds through about 15 UTC/Saturday. Then, in
the wake of the morning rain and convection, winds becoming
southerly and become a bit breezy sustained 7-12kts. Then, a
wind shift to the west or northwest looks likely at the very end
of the TAF period or even shortly after the TAF period ends at
GFL and ALB.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As a disturbance tracks across the region late tonight into
Saturday morning, unusually high moisture content (PWAT`s
approaching/exceeding 2 inches) will allow for locally heavy
downpours to occur. Should multiple rounds of heavy downpours
occur in any given location, ponding of water in urban/poor
drainage and low lying areas would be possible, along with
possible isolated flash flooding.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ059-060-
     064-065.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/Speciale
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS/Speciale
HYDROLOGY...KL