434
FXUS61 KALY 070548
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
148 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will end this
evening, followed by dry conditions tonight into Sunday.
Humidity levels will be slightly lower on Sunday, but very warm
temperatures will persist. Above normal temperatures will
continue through early next week, with humid conditions
returning. The next chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives
Tuesday, as a frontal system approaches form the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
.UPDATE...As of 147 AM EDT...This past evening`s thunderstorms
have dissipated as the weak cold front has now reached the very
southeast portion of the region stretched across southern
Dutchess and into Litchfield County. Behind it, dewpoints have
dropped into the upper 50s to mid/upper 60s. While this is
certainly an improvement from previous nights, it`s still a
rather humid night with temperatures currently sitting primarily
within the low 60s to low 70s.

Dry conditions will persist throughout the overnight period as
high pressure builds in from the west. With mainly clear skies,
sufficient radiational cooling will lead to some patchy fog
development especially for areas that received rain yesterday.
Minor adjustments were made to the temperature and sky forecast
with this update, but otherwise all else remains status quo. See
the previous discussion below for additional details on today`s
forecast.

PREVIOUS [315 PM EDT]...

Sunday looks to be a quiet day with a broad SW flow aloft and
surface high pressure building in from the west. Subsidence
should halt any convective development, with just some fair
weather cumulus clouds around. A warm air mass will be in place
with 850 mb temperature anomalies around +1 STDEV, so with
sufficient sunshine highs should reach the mid to upper 80s in
lower elevations, with cooler upper 70s to lower 80s in the
higher terrain. Humidity levels will be lower than recent days,
with dewpoints mainly in the lower to mid 60s.

Surface high pressure will be positioned over the region Sun
night, with flat ridging aloft. It should be mostly clear with
lows ranging from mid 50s in the Adirondacks to mid 60s in the
Hudson Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday should be another rain-free day with surface high
pressure in place and flat ridging aloft. Tempertures will be
slightly warmer as 850 mb temperature anomalies rise to a solid
+1 to +2 STDEV. Humidity levels will also be creeping up into
the upper 60s to near 70, so max heat indices may reach or
slightly exceed 95F in the mid Hudson Valley. A Heat Advisory
may eventually be needed. Actual highs look to be in the lower
90s in the lower elevations. Dry, but warm/humid conditions
expected Mon night with lows in the 60s to around 70.

The next chance of showers/T-storms arrives Tue as a frontal
system and upper level trough approach from the Great Lakes.
There are timing differences in the guidance, so it is unclear
when convection will initiate yet. Some guidance has the upper
trough lagging farther back to the west which delays showers and
storms until later in the day into evening, which is more in
line with NBM favoring likely PoPs during this time. Depending
on timing and eventual instability/shear parameters, there could
be some stronger storms. Also locally heavy rainfall may occur
due to anomalously high PWATs (increasing to +1 to +2 STDEV).
Prior to convection developing, the combination of temperatures
in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the lower 70s could yield max
heat indices the mid/upper 90s in valley locations.

Scattered to numerous showers and T-storms expected to persist
into Tue night depending on the timing of the upper level trough
moving in. It will remain warm and humid with lows in the 60s
to around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Latest guidance indicating the aforementioned front may stall
somewhere across the southern part of the area on Wed, so will
need to maintain a chance of showers and T-storms. Temperatures
will be somewhat cooler, especially north of the front, but
still slightly above normal with mid to upper 80s in lower
elevations.

Forecast confidence then decreases considerably in the Thu to
Sat timeframe. The main question is where the remnant
circulation of post-tropical cyclone Beryl ends up going, as it
potentially interacts with the front in the Northeast. Some
guidance has it tracking NE across the Tenn/Ohio Valley regions
into Thu, then into the lower Great Lakes Thu night into Fri.
Depending on the track, this could bring widespread and
potentially heavy rainfall given its tropical origin. Will
continue to monitor trends and mention mainly chance PoPs for
now until forecast confidence increases.

Slightly above normal temperatures and relatively humid
conditions should persist through the long term period, with
above normal temperatures continuing to be favored further out
in the 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak cold front continues to move slowly eastward across New
England this morning. High pressure is building in from the Great
Lakes Region.  Some patchy MVFR/IFR mist and fog is forming across
western New England and southern NY. MVFR conditions have developed
at KPOU with 3-4SM with mist and LIFR/IFR levels at KPSF.  The winds
have gone light to calm and a moist sfc and boundary layer with
recently wet ground persists.  We are also seeing some decoupling at
KGFL. We have added 3 to 4 hr TEMPO groups to account for IFR and
brief LIFR vsbys and possibly cigs between 06Z-10Z/SUN at
KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. We have VFR conditions with a light breeze and just
some sct cirrus at KALB.  KPSF has the highest chance for LIFR
cigs/vsbys.

Weak cold/dry advection continues and we should see an improvement
to VFR conditions at all the sites between 10Z-12Z/SUN.  Expect VFR
conditions the rest of the TAF cycle with few-sct
cumulus/stratocumulus and sct-bkn cirrus. Some clearing is expected
prior to 00Z/MON with the sfc anticyclone building in over NY and
New England.

The winds will vary in direction and be light to calm at less the 5
KT prior to 12Z/SUN. Winds will increase at 5-10 KT from the
west/northwest by the late morning through the afternoon and will
become light to calm by about 00Z/MON.


Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...Gant/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Wasula