Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
354 FXUS61 KALY 050549 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 149 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry tonight outside of a few isolated showers but a weak boundary lifting north tomorrow will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms to redevelop, especially in the afternoon, with continued warm and muggy conditions. Hot and humid conditions are expected on Saturday with more thunderstorms around once again. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 123 AM EDT...Surface boundary remains stalled over the region early this morning. Areas south of the front are seeing a light southerly flow, while northern areas are fairly calm. Aloft, the flow is out of the west-southwest, with an upper level disturbance well upstream of the area over the Midwest. The weak surface front will stay in place overnight. IR satellite imagery shows fairly widespread clouds in place, mostly mid level clouds. MRMS shows some spotty showers are ongoing, especially for the mid Hudson Valley, Taconics, and into western New England. Through the rest of the overnight hours, some brief showers will be possible, mainly for southern and eastern areas. Instability is limited, so won`t go with any thunder through daybreak. Otherwise, it will remain fairly cloudy, muggy and mild with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Dewpoints will stay high, so it will feel sticky and humid through the late night hours. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Some lingering isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible in the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT Friday morning, and a mix of clouds and sun is expected outside of any morning showers and storms, to help temperatures and the humidity to rise through the day. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon with the instability and diffuse boundary still in our region as a low level focus. Highs Friday well in the 80s to near 90, with around 80 to lower 80s higher terrain. The increase in low level humidity will cause heat indices to rise to the mid 90s in the mid Hudson Valley to perhaps the Capital Region but very brief and some uncertainty about heat indices reaching 95 or higher for two hours or more, so no Heat Advisories. Weak upper impulse tracks north of our region Friday night, supporting a little bit of an expansion of the showers and thunderstorms over our region. Instability will be marginal and shear will increase but still, the low level forcing will be weak, and not enough of a severe weather or flood threat to highlight. So, showers likely with scattered thunderstorms Friday night, that are timed to exit around or after daybreak Saturday. Some intervals of clouds and sun later Saturday morning and early afternoon before additional more isolated to scattered showers and storms develop along the leading edge of weak low level colder and drier air. The intervals of sun and clouds will help temperatures to get well into the 80s, with around 80 higher terrain. Any lingering scattered showers and storms exit western New England Saturday evening and cloud cover should decrease through the night. Sunday is expected to be dry and partly to mostly sunny with the weak cold front just to the south. Highs well into the 780s to near 90 with upper 70s to lower 80s higher terrain, and slightly less humid. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry weather will continue Monday with highs in the mid 80s to around 90 and around 80 to lower 80s higher terrain. The weak low level boundary to our south will begin to return north Tuesday as upper energy in the Great Lakes approaches. Increasing clouds and showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday with highs in the lower to mid 80s and upper 70s to around 80 higher terrain. The low level, nearly stationary boundary over our region will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday as weak upper energy tracks along the U.S./Canada border. Highs Wednesday and Thursday in the lower to mid 80s with 70s higher terrain. The weak upper dynamics and shear suggest limited potential for severe thunderstorms or a flood threat but the nearly stationary nature of the low level boundary and prolonged chances for showers and thunderstorms suggests at least keeping an eye on heavy rain potential. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06z Saturday...VFR conditions prevail at all terminals this morning with the exception of KPSF where visibililty falls within the MVFR category and the ceiling has been bouncing between VFR and MVFR. These conditions are not anticipated to persist, but are likely in association with some vicinity showers that could be causing some nearby mist/light fog. The KENX radar shows widely scattered, very light showers throughout the area this morning but no real impacts have been noted at any of the terminals outside of a mention of -RA at KALB which will likely not make it to the next ob. Throughout the 06z TAF period, mainly VFR conditions are anticipated across the terminals until later this afternoon when a weak boundary looks to bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Based on the latest guidance, KPOU/KPSF/KALB look to be the terminals with the greatest probability to be impacted so PROB30 groups were included here between 18-01z. At least MVFR conditions are likely to accompany these storms, with IFR conditions also possible. However, confidence is not high enough at this lead time to include IFR conditions within the TAFs. Will make adjustments with future iterations where necessary. Upon the conclusion of convective activity, VFR conditions should return and prevail for the remainder of the 06z TAF period. Winds throughout the 06z cycle will begin calm to light and variable before increasing to sustained speeds of 3-6 kt out of the south to southwest. Outlook... Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS/Speciale NEAR TERM...Frugis SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...NAS AVIATION...Gant