Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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976 FXUS61 KALY 072324 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 724 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mostly sunny and increasingly humid weather is expected Monday. More humid weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms. Shower and thunderstorm potential then continues through much of the week as a frontal system over our region potentially interacts with the remnants of Beryl. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... .UPDATE...As of 720 PM EDT, mostly clear (sunny) skies across the region outside of some mid level cloud patches across the southern Adirondacks and areas immediately south/east of the Capital Region. Temps remain quite warm; generally in the 80s for most valleys, and 70s across higher terrain. Forecast on track, however did add mention of patchy fog to valley areas for later tonight as temps cool off below crossover temps in some areas. Upper Hudson Valley and portions of Housatonic and CT River Valleys appear to have best chance for a period of fog later tonight. [PREVIOUS 412 PM EDT]...High pressure in control of the weather tonight with a clear sky and light to calm winds. Good radiational cooling conditions will help temperatures fall to around 60 to mid 60s and mid to upper 50s northern areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... **Heat Advisory for the mid Hudson Valley and Litchfield County noon through 8 PM Monday** Low level ridging in the OH Valley and Southern Appalachians weakens as low level ridging off the east coast builds west toward our region. The low level frontal boundary to our south will drift north as a weak and diffuse warm front Monday through Tuesday. Then, a weak northern stream upper impulse will track through the Great Lakes and along or just north of the U.S./Canada border, providing a bit of enhanced low level forcing as the leading edge of weak cold advection and some increase in boundary layer wind energy increases chances for showers and storms by Tuesday afternoon. The low level boundary, which will be the focus for the showers and storms will likely become nearly stationary over our region, perhaps over southern areas, as the remnants of Beryl potentially approach our region from the west Wednesday and beyond. Increased deep moisture and increasing low level jet energy would result in more coverage of showers and thunderstorms with very heavy rain. The timing and track of any remnants of Beryl are uncertain but if the remnants track through our region, there could be a flood threat Wednesday, depending on dryness or wetness of soil based on the coverage of storms Tuesday. The sky should be mostly sunny Monday, perhaps trending to partly sunny in the afternoon with some isolated thunderstorms from the eastern Catskills through mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and the southern Berkshires late in the afternoon and an isolated shower north of the Capital Region Monday evening as the diffuse low level boundary drifts north. Highs well into the 80s to lower 90s and a Heat Advisory has been issued for the mid Hudson Valley and Litchfield County for heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. Outside of any scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday, there should be some intervals of sun, which, along with the high humidity, will result in temperatures in the 80s to around 90 and heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. Heat Advisories may be needed in some areas Tuesday and Wednesday. So, heat and potential excessive rainfall in some areas mainly Tuesday and Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Depending on the timing and track of any remnants of Beryl, there could be more heat and humidity, along with the chance for more heavy rain Thursday. Once any remnants of Beryl exit, a lingering low level boundary south of the region could drift back north, providing focus for more scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday into the weekend as upper heights rise slowly and flat upper ridging builds into our region. So, keeping chances for showers and thunderstorms through next weekend, but coverage should be more scattered and any heavy rain threat would be much more localized. Highs Thursday through Saturday in the mid to upper 80s with upper 70s to lower 80s higher terrain. Sunday could be a bit drier and warmer with highs well into the 80s to near 90. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions early this evening, and again most of Monday. However, patchy fog is expected to develop later this evening and continue through around daybreak Monday. Best chances for at least intermittent IFR Vsbys/Cigs will be KGFL/KPSF based on climatology and expectation to drop below respective crossover temps by several degrees. Any fog/low clouds should lift between 10Z-12Z/Monday. Isolated showers may develop near KPOU after 22Z/Mon. Overall chances remain low, however trends will need to be watched for possible mention in subsequent TAF issuances. Light/variable to calm winds tonight will become west to southwest at 5-10 KT by late Monday morning and continuing through Monday afternoon. Outlook... Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .HYDROLOGY... The remnants of Beryl may affect our region later Tuesday through the rest of the week with potential areas of heavy rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted much of our region in a threat for excessive rainfall but confidence in the timing and coverage of any potential heavy rainfall is still low. If confidence increases, a flash flood watch may eventually may be needed in some areas later in the week. Some river flooding may be possible as well. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for CTZ001-013. NY...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for NYZ064>066. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...KL/NAS SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...NAS AVIATION...KL/Speciale HYDROLOGY...NAS