Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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923 FXUS61 KALY 060917 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 517 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region today, though coverage will be greatest this morning. The aforementioned boundary will track east through the region throughout the day, exiting by tomorrow morning to force the return to tranquil weather through the beginning of the work week. Despite the cold frontal passage, hot, humid weather is anticipated through the weekend and into the beginning of the week. An upper-level disturbance and frontal system will then approach the region Tuesday, increasing the chance for additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... *A Heat Advisory remains in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM this evening for Eastern Greene, Eastern Ulster, Western Columbia, and Western Dutchess Counties. *A Heat Advisory has now been issued for Eastern Albany, Eastern Columbia, Eastern Dutchess, and Western Rensselaer Counties to go into effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM this evening. Showers and thunderstorms are under way early this morning with a weak cold front, associated with a primary surface low located almost directly overhead, displaced just to the northwest of the region and a secondary surface low in east- central PA. Ahead of the surface boundary, a line of light to moderate showers (accumulating anywhere from 0.25" to nearly 1" in the last 3 hours with greatest totals just to the north of our portion of the Southwest Adirondacks according to NY Mesonet) and embedded rumbles of thunder have tracked east through the Southwest Adirondacks over the last couple of hours. In association with the secondary surface low, a cluster of thunderstorms has developed and can now be seen on the KENX radar as moving north and east into the Eastern Catskills. The main threat with these thunderstorms is locally heavy downpours with perhaps a locally strong wind gust or two courtesy of rapid evaporative cooling and/or precipitation loading. This initial round of convection is anticipated to carry through much of the morning with latest CAMs indicating additional development to the north and west of Albany as the front continues to drift farther south and east. High PWATs between 1.5" to over 2" and high freezing levels courtesy of the warm antecedent environment continue to hint that heavy downpours will continue to be the main threat with morning convection. However, as previously stated, locally strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out. The most widespread showers and thunderstorms should escape to the east by late morning/early afternoon, with just some additional, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms remaining possible this afternoon with the continued progression of the front. Outside of convective activity, today will be another warm, muggy day. High temperatures look to reach the upper 70s to low 80s at higher elevations with mid/upper 80s in large valley areas. Additionally, dewpoints will remain in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s especially within the Capital District and Mid- Hudson Valley. As such, maximum apparent temperatures will reach 95-100 degrees in these areas and the previous Heat Advisory was therefore expanded. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The aforementioned cold front looks to continue its eastward track through the region throughout the evening and into tonight with shower and thunderstorm activity tapering off swiftly upon the loss of daytime heating. Low temperatures overnight will fall to the upper 50s to low 60s in higher terrain regions to the mid/upper 60s elsewhere. Unfortunately, there will not be a break in muggy conditions overnight with dewpoints remaining in the upper 50s to 60s across the area. The rest of the weekend into the beginning of next work week will see the return to more tranquil conditions as surface high pressure and ridging aloft slide in from the west. However, hot, humid conditions will continue. While Sunday will feel "cooler" than today and Monday in most places, high temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s at higher elevations and mid/upper 80s in large valley areas paired with dewpoints in the low to upper 60s will make for maximum apparent temperatures in the mid/upper 80s to low 90s. Monday will then see an increase in anticipated highs with low 80s to low 90s expected across the area. Dewpoints in the 60s to possibly the low 70s will make for apparent temperatures in the upper 80s to low and possibly mid 90s. Should confidence increase in the coverage and duration of near or advisory criteria being met in the next day or so, Heat Advisories may be necessary. Low temperatures Sunday night will be similar to tonight with upper 50s to 60s while Monday night`s lows will range from the 60s to near 70. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The extended forecast period begins unsettled with a positively- tilted mid and upper level trough approaching from the Great Lakes Region, southeast Canada and the Midwest. A cold front and a pre- frontal disturbance will likely increase showers and thunderstorms during the day based the ensemble and deterministic guidance. It will be hot and humid ahead of the cold front with sfc dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s and temps in the upper 80s to around 90F in the valleys and upper 70s to mid 80s over the hills and mtns. Heat indices may reach in the mid/upper 90s from the Capital District south down the mid Hudson River Valley. Some heat headline may be needed. Some locally heavy downpours will also be possible with any thunderstorms with above normal PWATs in place. The initial cold front reaches New England by Wednesday morning with showers and isolated thunderstorms with lows in the 60s with some upper 50s over the southern Dacks. A secondary cold front moves across the region mid week with isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Temps will be more seasonable for July. Max temps will be in the upper 60s to mid/upper 70s over the mtns...and upper 70s to lower 80s with a few mid 80s over the mid Hudson Valley for highs. Humidity levels may briefly lower late Wed/Wed night with lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s and decreasing showers. Thu-Fri...the forecast is uncertain with low confidence based on the placement of the cold front and some ridging that may build in from the north and west briefly, as well as the location of the remnant circulation and moisture associated with TC Beryl. We stuck with the NBM with low chances of showers and possibly isolated thunderstorm Thu. Humidity levels creep up Thu. A frontal boundary may be close enough to Long Island/southern New England for isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to persist Thu night into Fri. Temps continue to run or slightly above normal as we head towards mid July. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A mixture of VFR/MVFR conditions continue this morning at KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF with some occasional IFR cigs at KPSF. Expect some deterioration to IFR cigs/vsbys at KGFL/KPSF ahead of a prefrontal disturbance this morning which will bring some showers and thunderstorms to all the TAF sites between 10Z-15Z/SAT. MVFR conditions at KALB/KPOU will lower to low MVFR/brief IFR in the showers and thunderstorms. Expect IFR/low MVFR conditions to continue at KGFL/KPSF. In the wake of the disturbance, expect MVFR/low VFR conditions to return in the late morning into the early to mid afternoon. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible with the cold front in the mid pm into the early evening. PROB30 groups were used to time the thunderstorms with MVFR cigs/vsbys in the 20Z-24Z time frame for KGFL/KPOU...and 21Z to 01Z/Sun for KALB/KPSF. Later TAF issuance can further refine the window. Expect a return to high MVFR or VFR cigs in the wake of the front after 00Z/SUN. The winds will be light and variable at 5 KT or less to calm this morning. The winds will be southerly at 5-10 KT in the late morning into the afternoon. The winds will shift to west to southwest in shortly before or just after 00Z/SUN. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .HYDROLOGY... Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated, especially this morning, throughout eastern New York and western New England. High PWATs in exceedance of 2" in many places and high freezing levels will lead to the potential for locally heavy downpours with convective activity. Local poor drainage/urban flooding is possible as a result, especially in areas that have training storms. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ058-053-061-066. Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ059-060-064-065. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gant NEAR TERM...Gant SHORT TERM...Gant LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...Wasula HYDROLOGY...KL/Gant