264
FXUS61 KAKQ 061748
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
148 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Very hot and humid again today with scattered afternoon and
evening thunderstorms across southeastern portions of the area.
Somewhat cooler but humid conditions continue through next week
with daily chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1050 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Very hot and humid conditions continue with heat indices up to around
  112F possible across the eastern half of the area and 103-
  108F farther west. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories
  are in effect for the entire area.

- Scattered storms are possible this afternoon into tonight
  across mainly southeast portions of the area with heavy rain
  possible.

High pressure continues to sit off the SE CONUS coast late this
morning while a weak cold front is still to the NW of the FA.
Aloft, a ridge is in place from the Gulf coast to the S Mid-
Atlantic with a trough over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A
moist airmass remains in place with the latest mesoanalysis
showing PWATs of 2.0-2.2" across the SE half of the area, with
1.5-2.0" values along and west of I-95.

Very hot and humid conditions continue today under partly cloudy
skies. Heat indices are already near 100F across SE VA, NE NC,
and the Lower Eastern Shore (as of 10 AM). Dew points are a bit
lower farther inland than they were yesterday at this time
(although it`s still humid with low 70s Td values). The
Excessive Heat Warning/Heat Advisory remain as is and am still
expecting heat indices near the bay/coast to top out around
110F. Not as confident that heat indices will reach warning
criteria near I-95 (given that dew pts are a few degrees lower
than they were yesterday), but won`t make any changes to
headlines. Areas outside of the warning and in the advisory should
see widespread 105F heat indices. Otherwise, highs today in the
mid-upper 90s are expected

A cold front approaches from the W today, stalling over
central/s-central VA tonight. Tstms are progged to develop along
a pre-frontal trough that will be centered from central NC to
SE VA/NE NC this aftn. Timing for convective initiation looks to
be after 2 PM (but the highest coverage of tstms will likely be
between 5-10 PM). Model guidance remains in decent agreement
regarding convection (which should largely be confined to SE
VA/NE NC) where PoPs increase to 60% by 21z/5 PM. PoPs linger
across SE portions of the FA through tonight but gradually
diminish with time. Given very high PWATs and weak shear, heavy
rain will be possible with any storms, especially if storms
train with >1" of rain possible in a very short time. WPC has SE
portions of the FA under a slight risk for excessive rainfall
with marginal for the remainder of the FA. Additionally, a few
strong to potentially severe storms are also possible (mainly
across SE VA/NE NC) due to wet microbursts. Lows tonight fall
into the lower 70s W with mid-upper 70s E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 405 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms are possible Sunday and Monday.

- Remaining humid with heat indices of 98-105F each day.

The cold front lingers as a stationary front across the area
early next week with daily chances for showers and storms
continuing. The best chance Sun is across SE VA/NE NC (40-60%
PoPs) with the best chance Mon across the Piedmont (40-50%
PoPs). Given the very high PWATs, locally heavy rain will be
possible both days. Temps will remain in the upper 80s to low-
mid 90s each day. However, with dew points remaining in the
mid-upper 70s SE on Sun and mid 70s everywhere on Mon, heat
indices of 98-105F are possible both days. Lows in the low-mid
70s are expected both nights as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Near normal temperatures and very humid conditions continue
  through next week.

- Remaining unsettled with daily chances for mainly afternoon
  and evening showers and storms.

Highs Tue and Wed mainly in the lower 90s with highs the rest
of the week in the mid-upper 80s. However, humidity sticks
around with dew points in the 70s continuing through the week.
Additionally, with lee troughs and/or weak frontal boundaries in
the vicinity of the region, expect chances for mainly afternoon
and evening showers/storms each day (40-55% PoPs each day). Tue
and Wed are the hottest of the week with heat indices of
95-103F (locally 105F possible Tue). Heat indices return to the
low-mid 90s for Thu and Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday...

Mainly VFR for the next 24 hours. While it is dry at this hour,
scattered tstms will develop later this aftn/this evening INVOF
PHF/ORF/ECG, and are most likely between 20-00z. RIC/SBY will
very likely remain dry. Brief IFR/LIFR VSBYs and gusty winds of
30-40 kt are possible in the stronger storms. Mainly dry
overnight with isolated-scattered showers (and perhaps a few
tstms) across E/SE VA and NE NC. In addition, a period of MVFR
CIGs is possible late tonight-Sun AM at SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG. It
should quickly become VFR by the middle of Sunday morning.
Scattered showers/tstms are possible INVOF PHF/ORF/ECG Sunday
aftn/evening (along a stalled frontal boundary), with PoPs no
higher than 20% at RIC/SBY. Unsettled weather continues through
the week with daily chances for showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Key messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the coastal waters
north of Cape Charles for seas up to 5 feet and southerly wind gusts
up to 25 knots.

- There is a moderate rip risk for all area beaches today.

Early this morning, a weak cold front is located west of the local
area with winds out of the S to SSW ranging from 10 to 15 knots with
gusts around 20 knots. Seas are running around 4 to 5 feet north of
Cape Charles and 3 to 4 feet south. Waves in the Bay are generally
running around 2 feet.

Similar to yesterday, winds will increase during the
afternoon/evening hours with the highest winds over the coastal
waters/out 20 nm (occasional gusts to ~25 knots). Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will also fire up later this afternoon into the
first part of the night, a few of which may require Special Marine
Warnings due to strong wind gusts. The cold front will slowly
approach tonight, before stalling/dissipating over or near the local
waters on Sunday. Predominately sub-SCA winds are then expected
Sunday through early next week, generally running around 10 to 15
knots out of the S or SE. The next potential for marginal SCAs will
be Wednesday into Thursday as another cold front approaches from the
west. In typical summer-time fashion, the front will likely
dissipate over the local waters.

There is a moderate rip current risk at all area beaches today.
There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches
tomorrow, with a low risk south.

&&

.CLIMATE...
No record highs set yesterday (7/5). See below for actual high
temps:

- RIC  99 (Record 102/2012)
- ORF  97 (Record 98/2012)
- SBY  94 (Record 102/2012)
- ECG  94 (Record 100/2012)


Record High Temperatures for today (July 6):

- RIC  105/1977
- ORF  102/1881
- SBY  102/2010
- ECG  99/2012


Record High Minimum Temperatures for today (July 6)

           7/6
- RIC    80/2012
- ORF    80/1999
- SBY    77/2012
- ECG    78/1999

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     MDZ021>024.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ025.
NC...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ012>017-030>032.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102.
VA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     VAZ075>090-092-093-095>100-512>525.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062-
     064>069-509>511.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...ERI/RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...AJB
CLIMATE...AKQ