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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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838 FXUS61 KAKQ 080757 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 357 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather continues through the week with daily chances for scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday through Friday. Very warm and humid conditions continue through much of the week as well. The highest heat indices are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 345 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Areas of marine fog linger across eastern portions of the Eastern Shore early this morning. The weak cold front continues to wash out today. Temps as of 330 AM ranged from the low-mid 70s for most of the area with upper 70s along the coast under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Fog over the ocean N of Parramore Island continues to spread inland into adjacent portions of the eastern shore early this morning before lifting shortly after sunrise. Apart from the marine layer fog, additional patchy ground fog is possible overnight across S central VA and NE NC. Some model guidance suggests that isolated to scattered showers (and perhaps an isolated storm) may develop around sunrise (similar to what happened yesterday). As such, have PoPs increasing to 25-30% later this morning. Aloft, an upper level ridge lingers over the Southeast with an upper level low underneath. At the same time, an upper level trough lingers across the N central CONUS. At the surface, Hurricane Beryl continues to move towards the TX coastline. Humidity increases today with dew points rising into the mid 70s across much of the area. This combined with temps rising into the low-mid 90s (most in the lower 90s) will allow for heat indices rising to 98-103F. While a few localized areas may reach heat indices around 105F this afternoon, 105F heat indices don`t look to be widespread enough to warrant a Heat Advisory. Scattered showers/storms increase in coverage this afternoon across central portions of the FA (40-50% PoPs). Given the very humid (PWATs ~2.00") airmass in place and slow storm motions, locally heavy rainfall is possible. Showers/storms taper off this evening with lows tonight in the mid 70s for most. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Hot and humid Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread heat indices of 105-109F. - Scattered showers and storms continue Tuesday and Wednesday. Heat and humidity lingers Tue and Wed with highs in the mid-upper 90s Tue and low-mid 90s Wed. Given dew points in the mid-upper 70s both days, heat indices rise to 105-109F Tue and 103-108F Wed. Heat Advisories are likely across much of the area both days. Tue looks to be the hotter day with some potential for heat indices approaching 110F in spots. The remnants of Hurricane Beryl get lifted up by an upper level trough over the upper Midwest Tue-Wed. While the remnants of Beryl remain NW of the local area, the trailing cold front from the system moves towards the local area Wed, stalling E of the Appalachians on Wed night. A few isolated to scattered showers/storms are possible across central portions of the FA on Tue (25-30% PoPs) with higher PoPs across the W Piedmont on Wed (35-50% PoPs). Convection may linger into central portions of the FA Wed night as the cold front stalls. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 320 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Near normal temperatures and very humid conditions continue through next week. - Remaining unsettled with daily chances for showers and storms. - The highest precipitation chances will be from late Thursday through Friday evening. While the threat for severe weather looks to be limited, locally heavy rainfall is possible late this week. Unsettled wx is expected late this week into the weekend weak S-SW flow aloft continues across the area in between broader troughing to the NW and ridging offshore. The remnants of Beryl lift NE into srn Quebec by Friday with direct rainfall from the system remaining to the NW of the local area. PWs likely remain at or above 2.0" through the week, allowing for very humid conditions. Meanwhile, a shortwave may track along the southwestern periphery of the offshore ridge before turning to the N and tracking across the local area late Thursday through Friday evening. As a result, scattered to numerous showers/tstms are expected Thu aftn and evening, with showers and a few tstms likely continuing Thu night and through much of Fri/Fri evening before potentially tapering off by late Friday night as the shortwave exits the area. More typical diurnally driven tstms are expected next weekend. While there likely won`t be as much of a severe threat, locally heavy rainfall is possible through the week, especially Thursday through Friday evening. Have likely PoPs for Thu/Fri with slight chance to chance PoPs next weekend. Highs Thu in the upper 80s-lower 90s, dropping to the 85-90F range for Fri-Sat. Lows mainly between 70-75F through the period. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Monday... Cloud cover increases overnight with mainly VFR CIGs apart from MVFR/IFR CIGs across S central VA. These lower CIGs may reach ORF. Marine layer fog has already moved onshore the Eastern Shore with MVFR VIS expected to drop to IFR later tonight at SBY. Additional patchy ground fog is possible across S central VA and NE NC overnight. Fog lifts shortly after sunrise with VIS improving to VFR. Similar to yesterday, isolated to scattered showers (and potentially storms) are possible around sunrise with greater coverage of scattered showers and storms in the afternoon. IFR VIS is possible with any showers/storms. Showers/storms taper off by the evening with a return of VFR conditions under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Unsettled weather continues through the week with daily chances for showers/storms (mainly during the afternoon/evening timeframe). && .MARINE... As of 315 AM EDT Monday... Key messages: - Marine Dense Fog Advisory in effect through 7 AM this morning for ocean zones from Fenwick to Parramore Island for VSBYs less than 1 NM. - Generally benign, sub-SCA conditions are expected through Tuesday. - SCA conditions are possible Wednesday afternoon through Thursday due to increasing southerly winds. Early this morning, a weak front is located over the local waters with winds out of the SW ranging from 5 to 10 knots. Seas are running around 2 feet and waves in the Chesapeake Bay are running around 1 foot. A weak front will remain near the waters through tomorrow as it gradually dissipates over the area. Winds will generally remain out of the S to SSE and continue to run around 10 knots. Brief increases in wind speeds to around 10 to 15 knots will be possible both this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon due to afternoon sea breezes. Seas will average 2 to 3 feet and waves in the bay 1 to 2 feet through this timeframe. Southerly winds increase Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening ahead of another approaching cold front from the northwest. Local wind probs are maximized Wednesday evening through Wednesday night, showing a decent potential for gusts of 20 to 25 knots over the ocean and Chesapeake Bay. In addition, seas will increase to 4 to 5 feet and waves in the bay increase to 2 to 3 feet Wednesday night. SCAs will likely be needed for at least the ocean and bay starting Wednesday afternoon. Southerly winds continue to gust around 20 to 25 knots through the day Thursday, before gradually diminishing Thursday night. Sub-SCA conditions then likely return late this week into this weekend. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ERI NEAR TERM...RMM SHORT TERM...RMM LONG TERM...ERI/RMM AVIATION...RMM MARINE...AJB