Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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264 FXUS61 KAKQ 061748 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 148 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Very hot and humid again today with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms across southeastern portions of the area. Somewhat cooler but humid conditions continue through next week with daily chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1050 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Very hot and humid conditions continue with heat indices up to around 112F possible across the eastern half of the area and 103- 108F farther west. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect for the entire area. - Scattered storms are possible this afternoon into tonight across mainly southeast portions of the area with heavy rain possible. High pressure continues to sit off the SE CONUS coast late this morning while a weak cold front is still to the NW of the FA. Aloft, a ridge is in place from the Gulf coast to the S Mid- Atlantic with a trough over the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A moist airmass remains in place with the latest mesoanalysis showing PWATs of 2.0-2.2" across the SE half of the area, with 1.5-2.0" values along and west of I-95. Very hot and humid conditions continue today under partly cloudy skies. Heat indices are already near 100F across SE VA, NE NC, and the Lower Eastern Shore (as of 10 AM). Dew points are a bit lower farther inland than they were yesterday at this time (although it`s still humid with low 70s Td values). The Excessive Heat Warning/Heat Advisory remain as is and am still expecting heat indices near the bay/coast to top out around 110F. Not as confident that heat indices will reach warning criteria near I-95 (given that dew pts are a few degrees lower than they were yesterday), but won`t make any changes to headlines. Areas outside of the warning and in the advisory should see widespread 105F heat indices. Otherwise, highs today in the mid-upper 90s are expected A cold front approaches from the W today, stalling over central/s-central VA tonight. Tstms are progged to develop along a pre-frontal trough that will be centered from central NC to SE VA/NE NC this aftn. Timing for convective initiation looks to be after 2 PM (but the highest coverage of tstms will likely be between 5-10 PM). Model guidance remains in decent agreement regarding convection (which should largely be confined to SE VA/NE NC) where PoPs increase to 60% by 21z/5 PM. PoPs linger across SE portions of the FA through tonight but gradually diminish with time. Given very high PWATs and weak shear, heavy rain will be possible with any storms, especially if storms train with >1" of rain possible in a very short time. WPC has SE portions of the FA under a slight risk for excessive rainfall with marginal for the remainder of the FA. Additionally, a few strong to potentially severe storms are also possible (mainly across SE VA/NE NC) due to wet microbursts. Lows tonight fall into the lower 70s W with mid-upper 70s E. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 405 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Scattered showers and storms are possible Sunday and Monday. - Remaining humid with heat indices of 98-105F each day. The cold front lingers as a stationary front across the area early next week with daily chances for showers and storms continuing. The best chance Sun is across SE VA/NE NC (40-60% PoPs) with the best chance Mon across the Piedmont (40-50% PoPs). Given the very high PWATs, locally heavy rain will be possible both days. Temps will remain in the upper 80s to low- mid 90s each day. However, with dew points remaining in the mid-upper 70s SE on Sun and mid 70s everywhere on Mon, heat indices of 98-105F are possible both days. Lows in the low-mid 70s are expected both nights as well. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 410 AM EDT Saturday... Key Message: - Near normal temperatures and very humid conditions continue through next week. - Remaining unsettled with daily chances for mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms. Highs Tue and Wed mainly in the lower 90s with highs the rest of the week in the mid-upper 80s. However, humidity sticks around with dew points in the 70s continuing through the week. Additionally, with lee troughs and/or weak frontal boundaries in the vicinity of the region, expect chances for mainly afternoon and evening showers/storms each day (40-55% PoPs each day). Tue and Wed are the hottest of the week with heat indices of 95-103F (locally 105F possible Tue). Heat indices return to the low-mid 90s for Thu and Fri. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Saturday... Mainly VFR for the next 24 hours. While it is dry at this hour, scattered tstms will develop later this aftn/this evening INVOF PHF/ORF/ECG, and are most likely between 20-00z. RIC/SBY will very likely remain dry. Brief IFR/LIFR VSBYs and gusty winds of 30-40 kt are possible in the stronger storms. Mainly dry overnight with isolated-scattered showers (and perhaps a few tstms) across E/SE VA and NE NC. In addition, a period of MVFR CIGs is possible late tonight-Sun AM at SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG. It should quickly become VFR by the middle of Sunday morning. Scattered showers/tstms are possible INVOF PHF/ORF/ECG Sunday aftn/evening (along a stalled frontal boundary), with PoPs no higher than 20% at RIC/SBY. Unsettled weather continues through the week with daily chances for showers/storms. && .MARINE... As of 300 AM EDT Saturday... Key messages: - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the coastal waters north of Cape Charles for seas up to 5 feet and southerly wind gusts up to 25 knots. - There is a moderate rip risk for all area beaches today. Early this morning, a weak cold front is located west of the local area with winds out of the S to SSW ranging from 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. Seas are running around 4 to 5 feet north of Cape Charles and 3 to 4 feet south. Waves in the Bay are generally running around 2 feet. Similar to yesterday, winds will increase during the afternoon/evening hours with the highest winds over the coastal waters/out 20 nm (occasional gusts to ~25 knots). Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also fire up later this afternoon into the first part of the night, a few of which may require Special Marine Warnings due to strong wind gusts. The cold front will slowly approach tonight, before stalling/dissipating over or near the local waters on Sunday. Predominately sub-SCA winds are then expected Sunday through early next week, generally running around 10 to 15 knots out of the S or SE. The next potential for marginal SCAs will be Wednesday into Thursday as another cold front approaches from the west. In typical summer-time fashion, the front will likely dissipate over the local waters. There is a moderate rip current risk at all area beaches today. There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches tomorrow, with a low risk south. && .CLIMATE... No record highs set yesterday (7/5). See below for actual high temps: - RIC 99 (Record 102/2012) - ORF 97 (Record 98/2012) - SBY 94 (Record 102/2012) - ECG 94 (Record 100/2012) Record High Temperatures for today (July 6): - RIC 105/1977 - ORF 102/1881 - SBY 102/2010 - ECG 99/2012 Record High Minimum Temperatures for today (July 6) 7/6 - RIC 80/2012 - ORF 80/1999 - SBY 77/2012 - ECG 78/1999 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>024. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ025. NC...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102. VA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ075>090-092-093-095>100-512>525. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062- 064>069-509>511. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RMM NEAR TERM...ERI/RMM SHORT TERM...RMM LONG TERM...RMM AVIATION...ERI MARINE...AJB CLIMATE...AKQ