030
FXUS61 KAKQ 201703
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
103 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front over NC will lift is lifting north early this
morning, bringing unsettled conditions back to most of the area
with locally heavy rainfall possible. Somewhat unsettled
conditions are expected through much of next week with scattered
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each
day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 940 AM EDT Saturday...

Key messages:

- Weak frontal boundary lifts northward this morning with low
  pressure translating along the front this afternoon. Areas
  near and north of the boundary will see periods of moderate to
  locally heavy rainfall.

- A flood watch has been issued for portions of southern Virginia.

- A few strong storms are possible along and south of the front this
  afternoon and evening.

Late morning analysis shows high pressure well off the SE CONUS
with a weak front slowly making northward progress across NC
and into VA. Aloft, a broad positively-tilted trough is noted
over the Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes, resulting in
SW flow over the region. Satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy
skies across the region. Latest radar also showing scattered
showers over the area, with one particular stationary shower
over Gloucester County producing very heavy rainfall over the
past couple hours.

Expect the front to continue to lift north this morning with an
increasing chance for showers and a few storms. Skies will be
mostly cloudy today with widespread showers and storms possible
this afternoon into the evening. Temperatures will be held down
by cloud cover and showers with highs ranging from the upper 70s
NW to the mid 80s SE. A shortwave trough in the flow aloft will
result in weak low pressure forming along the frontal boundary
which will serve to enhance lift and low level convergence along
and north of the front this afternoon. HREF guidance shows the
greatest precip coverage and probabilities of 3"/3 hours
generally along the US 460 corridor today, though the latest
CAMs have shifted the axis slightly S to near or just N of the
NC/VA border. WPC has included a small Slight Risk
area from the VA/NC border northward into the I-64 corridor
today. At this time, the greatest threat for heavy rainfall and
flooding appears to be in the vicinity of the Williamsburg area
and WPC shows some concern for locally significant flooding
here. Given the efficient rainfall rates this morning and the
continued potential for slow-moving showers/storms this
afternoon (with some building instability), have decided to
raise a flood watch that roughly aligns with WPC`s slight ERO.
This is for areas N of the NC/VA border, approximately to the
Richmond Metro and points NE on the Middle Peninsula and nrn
Neck. Left out the eastern shore as they have seen less rain
recently and are usually less flood-prone. As low pressure
translates east along the front late this afternoon and evening,
PoPs will be focused across the SE third of the area and near
the coast/offshore after midnight. Enhanced flow aloft will
result in 25-30 kt of shear this afternoon and evening along and
south of the frontal boundary. Strong straight line winds
locally heavy rainfall are the main threats from convection this
afternoon and evening. SPC has areas near and south of the
VA/NC border in a Marginal Risk. Lows tonight range from the
mid/upper 60s N and NW to the low 70s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 430 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages...

- Lower coverage of showers and storms on Sunday as the front
  meanders from central NC into VA in the afternoon.

The front gets pushed into NC in the wake of weak low pressure.
Shower and storm chances will be focused over the southern third of
the area on Sunday. Fewer clouds and showers across the northern
half of the area will result in slightly higher temps Sunday
afternoon with highs ranging from the upper 80s N and NW with mid
80s to the S. Some break in the humid conditions is expected for the
northern half of the area with dew points in the upper 60s to low
70s while areas south of the I-64 corridor will maintain dew points
in the mid 70s and PWAT values greater than 2". Overnight lows fall
into the upper 60s to low 70s.

Not much change in the overall synoptic pattern on Monday with
continued SW flow aloft and deep moisture over the region. The front
is forecast to lift north of the area on Monday so there will be
less forcing in the low levels to focus shower and storm chances.
That said, diurnally driven convection is likely across the area
with locally heavy rainfall possible just about anywhere in region.
Highs Monday stay in the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows again
in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Continued unsettled this coming week with deep moisture in
  place and daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The remainder of next week will see little change in the
overall pattern across the region with continued SW flow aloft.
Bermuda high offshore will maintain a feed of deep moisture into
the region with PWAT values generally aoa 2". Showers and
storms will generally follow a diurnal cycle, generally forming
over inland areas in the afternoon and spreading toward the
coast in the evening. Have maintained likely PoPs each afternoon
through Friday with somewhat lower chances on Saturday. There
are indications that this stagnant/wet pattern may take a break
by next weekend as sfc high pressure builds to our north and
pushes a cold front south of the area. Highs will be in the
mid-upr 80s to around 90 degrees Wednesday, then a few degrees
cooler for the latter half of the week with highs in the mid
80s. Overnight lows continue in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Saturday...

Mix of flying conditions in place early this morning with MVFR/IFR
CIGs noted across the western half of the area while VFR
prevails near the coast. Included a short TEMPO at RIC to cover
brief departures to IFR over the next hour or two. Expect CIGs
to be predominantly MVFR by 14-15z except for SBY where VFR
prevails today. Showers and a few storms are possible this
morning with local flight restrictions expected in and around
any convection. A front lifts northward this morning and an area
of low pressure is expected to develop along the front this
afternoon, resulting in greater coverage of showers and storms
along and just north of where the boundary sets up. Relative
greater chances for thunder will exist along and to the south of
this boundary this afternoon and evening. Low confidence in
specific timing of storms this afternoon so will show VCTS at
ORF, PHF, and ECG. Light winds this morning become SE 5-10 kt
this afternoon.

MVFR/IFR cigs are possible in vicinity of the boundary tonight.
Unsettled conditions continue Sunday through Wednesday with daily
chances of mainly aftn/evening showers/tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A warm front lifts north through the area today, bringing light
and variable winds.

- Prevailing sub-advisory conditions are expected to continue
through at least early next week, although afternoon/evening
thunderstorms are possible each day.

A warm front is slowly moving north across nrn NC early this
morning, with E-SE winds of 5-10 kt over the waters and 2-3 ft
seas/1-2 ft waves. The front is progged to continue to lift north
across part of the area today before stalling as weak sfc low
pressure tracks along it. The weak low moves offshore tonight. Winds
will generally be E-SE at ~10 kt today, with S-SE winds south of the
front (over the far SE VA/NE NC coastal waters). Winds become
variable this evening as the low tracks over the waters before
turning to the W-NW tonight (and remaining well below SCA
thresholds). Despite the prevailing sub-SCA conditions, scattered to
numerous tstms could produce locally higher gusts (especially from
midday through this evening). Light and variable winds are expected
Sunday with continuing shower/storm chances. S/SW winds become more
established Monday and especially the middle of next week as the
pressure gradient tightens between Bermuda high pressure offshore
and weak low pressure well to our NW. It still looks to remain
predominantly sub-SCA through the period, outside of brief higher
wind gusts from convection. Waves in the bay average 1-2 ft while
seas average 2-3 ft. Seas increase to 3-4 ft across the northern
waters mid-late this week as SSW winds become a bit more elevated
(but still below SCA thresholds).

Will continue with a moderate rip current risk across the northern
beaches this weekend, with a low rip risk for VA Beach/Eastern
Currituck.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ065>068-
     078>090-092-093-095>098-512>516-518-520-523>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR/SW
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...JDM/RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...ERI/SW