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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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465 FXUS61 KAKQ 151935 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 335 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Another hot stretch of weather prevails through most of Wednesday. An unsettled period returns late Wednesday through Thursday, as a cold front pushes through the area and stalls across the Carolinas. Shower chances focus mainly over southern Virginia and North Carolina Friday, then return to all zones by Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Hot and humid east, hot and slightly less humid west. - Excessive Heat Warning in effect SE zones. - Heat Advisory in effect for most of the remainder of the area except the piedmont and MD beaches. GOES water vapor channels depict westerly flow aloft across the Mid-Atlantic on the northern periphery of a broad ridge that extends from the Southeast CONUS into the subtropical western Atlantic. The initial surface trough over the region has pushed offshore with another lee-side trough developing this afternoon. Dewpoints actually mixed down into the mid/upper 60s from central VA into SE VA in the wake of that feature, but are slowly beginning to recover. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 90s for much of the area. Heat Indices are generally 100-105F, slightly lower than originally forecast due to the lower dewpoints pushing farther east. However, there are still a few more hours of peak heating and dewpoints are nudging up, so there will be no changes to the heat headlines, which continue through 8 PM. Given the drier airmass, there is less coverage of CU this afternoon, tstms are expected to be very limited in coverage with PoPs only ~20% for the far NW Piedmont and NE NC near the Albemarle Sound. Otherwise, warm and humid tonight with lows in the lower 70s W, to mid/upper 70s E. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... Key messages: - Excessive Heat Warning Tuesday for Southeast Virginia and much of Northeast North Carolina - Heat Advisory for the remainder of the area with the exception of the MD beaches. - Remaining hot Wednesday and humid area-wide but with a higher coverage of storms by afternoon (heat headlines are likely for some of the area but details are more uncertain). The combination of heat and humidity peaks Tuesday, as the core of the upper ridge becomes centered well off the SE coast. The consensus is for 850mb temperatures similar to today (21-22C), with slightly higher humidity given the favorable location of the upper ridge off the SE coast to Bermuda. However, the 15/12z guidance has nudge dewpoints down slightly, with inland areas in the upper 60s/around 70F during peak heating, and 72-75F closer to and along the coast. Therefore, with highs again into the mid/upper 90s to around 100F, peak heat indices of 105-109F are expected for much of the area and 110F+ are expected to prevail over SE VA and NE NC. An Excessive Heat Warning has been issued for SE VA and much of NE NC (Heat Advisory for Northampton, NC and Outer Banks Currituck), with a Heat Advisory for the remainder of the area with the exception of no heat headline for the MD beaches. Limited rain chances again, with the CAMs a bit split on where the highest chances will be. Overall, there is a bit higher chc over the southern piedmont, but generally PoPs are 15-20%, with less the 15% along the Atlantic Coast of the Eastern Shore. Warm and humid again Tuesday night (probably the warmest night with lows 75-80F). The models remain in decent agreement that Wednesday will be the last day of hot conditions as the upper ridge eventually breaks down, as a strong upper trough translates SE from north central US to the Great Lakes. Dew pts will be more uniform area-wide (in the mid 70s inland with upper 70s SE), due to moisture pooling along a pre- frontal trough. Highs will be a few degrees less Wednesday (mid- upper 90s) but the higher dew pts may lead to similar heat indices with 110F+ possible in the E and SE. 15/12z guidance is a little more aggressive with showers/tstms later Wednesday aftn into Wednesday evening, especially across the N. A few stronger tstms are possible initially given a well mixed BL and a high pw airmass. Continued warm and humid Wednesday night with lows in the lower to mid 70s and the potential for showers and embedded tstms lingering overnight as a cold front approaches from the NW. Models remain in fairly good agreement that the upper level trough pushes from the upper Great Lakes to New England Thursday, but flattens out to the south as it approaches the strong/persistent upper level ridge anchored well offshore of the SE US coast. The highest chances for showers/storms Thursday (~70%) will be for southern VA/NE NC, with 50-60% N). Locally heavy rainfall will certainly be possible during this timeframe. Highs Thursday will be highly dependent upon the timing of the front, for now expecting mid 80s to near 90F. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Heaviest rain pushes south Thursday night as cold front stalls just south of the area on Friday. - Daily scattered rain chances persist as the front lifts back north into the area. Upper trough will move from the Great Lakes into New England Thursday night into early Friday. A shortwave will also slide by during the same timeframe, helping push the cold front just south of our CWA. This will make the highest rain chances move further southeast late Thursday evening. Slightly drier air will attempt to push into the northern tier of the area on Friday as high pressure drops into the Great Lakes/western New England region. Dewpoints across the north look to fall into the low to mid 60s on Friday, and with high temperatures in the mid 80s, it will be a fairly pleasant day. On the other hand, southern/southeastern locations will keep the humidity in place allowing rain and storm chances to continue on Friday. Models then indicate that the area of high pressure offshore will retrograde back to the west closer to the Southeast coast by the weekend. The stalled front will then lift back north into the local area keeping daily scattered rain chances in place. Dewpoints in the 70s will creep back northward, but thankfully temperatures will remain in the upper 80s for the weekend keeping the excessive heat/humidity somewhat at bay. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 155 PM EDT Monday... VFR conditions prevail as of 18z under a mostly sunny sky with a light generally S to SW wind. Primarily VFR this aftn through tonight and into Tuesday, with only a slight chc of tstms this aftn and Tuesday aftn. The wind should generally be SSW 5-10kt tonight, then SW 10-15kt late Tuesday morning into the aftn. A cold front approaches from the NW Wednesday aftn with an increasing chc of showers/tstms later Wednesday aftn into Wednesday night. This front will push through the area Thursday with a continued chc of showers/tstms. Periodic flight restrictions are expected later Wednesday into Thursday. The front will push farther S on Friday as drier air attempts to push in from the NW, and then the boundary lifts back N Saturday. The chc for showers/tstms is less Friday (except over far SE VA/NE NC) and then increases again Saturday. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Monday... Key messages: - Benign marine conditions for the rest of today and tomorrow. Low rip risk expected at area beaches. - Southwesterly winds may increase ahead of a cold frontal passage late Wednesday into early Thursday. Seas will briefly build to 4- 5ft as well. Surface high pressure is located offshore of the Southeast coastline this afternoon with a bit of lee troughing over our local area. Mostly clear skies and warm temperatures are making for a quiet day on the waters, with west/southwesterly winds around 8-12kt. Seas are 2-3ft with 1ft waves in the Bay. Expect this pattern to persist on Tuesday, with clouds beginning to increase later in the day. Rip current risk will stay low at area beaches. There may be a brief uptick in southwesterly winds tonight in the lower Bay as the pressure gradient tightens slightly, but speeds should remain below just below SCA thresholds. A cold front will approach the CWA late Wednesday with the pressure gradient tightening ahead of it. South/southwesterly winds are forecast to become elevated by mid-day Wednesday. There is a bit of disagreement between guidances as to just how much winds increase. As of now, the trends still keep speeds in the Bay just below Small Craft Advisory thresholds, or perhaps right at their lower end around 16-18kt and gusts to 20-25kt. Seas will increase to 4-5ft and Bay waves will reach 2-3ft. There will also be a chance for rain and thunderstorms, with some being heavy at times. The rip current risk may increase Wednesday and Thursday, at least across the northern beaches, as those winds and seas rise and a swell starts to push in. Any elevated marine conditions should subside by late Thursday into Friday, and winds will become northeasterly. Aside from thunderstorm chances, water conditions will remain pleasant through the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Record Highs and record high mins may be challenged Mon-Wed. - Record Highs: - Site: Mon 7/15 Tue 7/16 Wed 7/17 - RIC: 100 (1995) 101 (1980) 100 (1980) - ORF: 101 (1995) 102 (1879) 100 (1887) - SBY: 100 (1995) 99 (1915) 99 (2012) - ECG: 97 (1997) 98 (1995) 99 (1942) - Record High Mins: - Site: Mon 7/15 Tue 7/16 Wed 7/17 - RIC: 77 (1993) 77 (1983) 76 (2005) - ORF: 82 (1992) 80 (1995) 80 (2021) - SBY: 79 (1995) 78 (2013) 80 (1983) - ECG: 78 (1993) 79 (2012) 80 (2019) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>024. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for MDZ021>024. NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012-102. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ012-102. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ013>017-030>032. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ013>017-030>032. VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ064-065- 075>090-092-093-099-100-511>525. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075>090-092-099-100-509>523. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095>098. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ093-095>098-524-525. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB LONG TERM...JKP AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...JKP CLIMATE...AKQ