808
FXUS61 KAKQ 170757
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
357 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions prevail through this afternoon ahead of
a cold front. An unsettled period begins late this afternoon
through Thursday, as a cold front pushes through the area and
stalls across the Carolinas. Shower chances focus mainly over
southern Virginia and North Carolina Friday, then return to all
zones by Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 335 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Heat Advisories are in effect for the entire area today (other
  than the MD beaches).

- Showers/storms become fairly widespread late this aftn/evening
  tonight.

- There is a Slight Risk for severe weather across the northern
  half of the forecast area with a Marginal Risk for most of the
  remainder of the CWA.

The latest wx analysis indicates high pressure at the sfc and
aloft centered well off the SE coast to Bermuda. There is a
weak sfc lee trough in place, with SSW low level flow and very
warm and humid conditions in place, temperatures in the upper
70s to near 80F across rural areas, with 80-85F in the urban
locations. Lows through sunrise will likely be at or above daily
record high mins at main CLI sites, but this may not stand
given showers/tstms expected this evening (see CLI section for
explanation).

There may be a few isolated showers later this morning over NC,
but overall it should be mainly dry until mid aftn over the
region, allowing for one final hot and humid day. A Heat
Advisory is in effect for all but the MD beaches for heat
indices averaging in the 105-109F range late this morning into
the aftn. It may be a bit marginal W of I-95 where storms arrive
earlier and dew pts are slightly lower, and a few of typical hot
spots in the E may briefly reach 110F, but have decided to keep
the headline unchanged. Also, expect most of the Advisory will
be able to be cancelled prior to the 8 PM end time given more
clouds and at least scattered showers/storms dropping temps
towards the late aftn/early evening. Actual high temperatures
will be mostly in the mid 90s. The sfc cold front will remain
to the NW of the FA into tonight, with storms developing more on
the lee trough with strong low level destabilization in the
aftn (ML CAPE in the 1500-2500 J/Kg range). However, mid level
lapse rates are quite weak and with the hot humid airmass, hail
will be unlikely. Deep layer shear increases to a modest 20 to
30 knots later this aftn as the mid level flow increases with
the approach of the upper trough. Storms will primarily be
linear clusters and somewhat disorganized, but a marginal
supercell or two cannot be ruled out, along with bowing segments.
The primary threat with the strongest storms will be damaging
wind gusts. SPC continues with the northern half of the
forecast area in a Slight Risk for severe weather and a Marginal
Risk elsewhere (technically only GEN thunder along the
Albemarle sound). In addition to the severe weather threat,
there will also be a localized heavy rain threat as moisture
pools ahead of the front, with PWATs surging to 2.2+", though
the best chc for widespread heavy rain into tonight will be N of
the FA.

Showers/storms gradually diminish twds midnight, with lingering
showers and embedded tstms possible overnight (but with little
SVR threat). Lows in the lower 70s NW to the mid-upper 70s SE.



&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Marginal SVR risk Thursday central and south. Heavy rain
  threat, primarily across the SE.


The cold front gradually pushes south through the region
Wednesday night and through the day Thursday, before eventually
stalling near the NC/VA border Thursday night. Highest
shower/storm chances will be focused across the southern half of
the area on Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible,
with a Day 2 Slight Risk ERO for far southern Virginia and
northeast North Carolina. There is a Marginal ERO for the
remainder of the forecast area. Widespread clouds and rain on
Thursday will keep temperatures in the 80s. The front pushes
just south of the local area Thursday night into Friday, with
the highest rain chances confined to the southern areas. Drying
out for the northern half of the area Friday, with only
scattered shower and storm chances by Friday afternoon. High
temperatures will again be in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Daily rain chances persist as the front lifts back north and
stalls over the southeastern portion of the area.

- Temperatures look to stay near normal.

Upper trough moving into New England looks to flatten out later
Friday while the area of high pressure off the Southeast coast
begins to gradually retrograde back westward slightly. The front is
forecast to lift back north into the southeastern portion of the
area and stall out into Saturday. The best rain chances Friday night
will be across northeast North Carolina in the vicinity of the
boundary, then chances spread back north on Saturday as the front
shifts. The higher rain/storm chances on Saturday will be south of
the I-64 corridor. A positively tilted trough will start to dip down
into the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday allowing our flow to
become more southwesterly. The stalled front won`t move very much,
so rain chances look to remain fairly similar into early next week,
with the southern half of the area having the best chance for
rain/storms. After a brief, partial break from the humidity
(especially up north), 70+ degree dewpoints will stream back into
the area for this forecast period making it feel humid once again.
The somewhat good news is that temperatures aren`t expected to be
nearly as hot during the extended period as they have been, with
high temperatures forecast to top out in the mid to upper 80s, which
is right around or even slightly below normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail into this aftn ahead of an approaching
cold front, with SSW winds ~10kt, increasing to 10-15kt with
gusts to 20-25kt by late morning. SCT-BKN cumulus develops
during the aftn. Scattered showers and storms will mainly be W
of the terminals until late in the aftn, will have mention of
VCTS starting in the 20-23Z timeframe, with prevailing SHRA at
all but ECG 23-01Z and thereafter into tonight. Gusty winds and
heavy rain will be possible with any storms, with IFR-LIFR
flight restrictions in VSBY. Gusty winds in excess of 40kt will
be possible in the storms as well, especially at RIC/SBY.
Showers and storms taper off from W to E later tonight as
forcing weakens.

Outlook: The cold front lags back to the NW into Thu morning,
then pushes S through the FA on Thu with scattered to numerous showers
and storms redeveloping. Thunder chances decrease across
northern areas by later in the day, becoming more focused across
southern VA and NC. Periodic flight restrictions (mainly VSBYs) are
expected due to locally heavy rain along with gusty winds. The
front will push farther S Thu night into Friday as drier air
pushes in from the NW. The boundary lifts back N Saturday. The
chance for showers/tstms is less Friday (except over far SE
VA/NE NC) and then increases again Saturday. Sunday will see
scattered, mainly aftn/evening showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and
  lower James River this morning.

- Winds and seas increase again this evening with SCA conditions likely
  in the Chesapeake Bay as well as the Atlantic waters north of
  Cape Charles Light.

Bermuda high pressure remains dominant offshore with a lee
trough over inland areas. The gradient between these features
has tightened enough to justify marginal SCA headlines in the
Ches Bay as well as the lower James River this morning with SW
winds 15-20 kt and a few gusts to 25 kt. Winds are expected to
fall back to 10-15 kt by mid morning. The surface trough will
sharpen this afternoon with the potential for increased coverage
of showers and storms into this evening. Will hold off on
additional headlines for the bay/James for now but a period of
SW 15-20 kt winds is likely late this afternoon into the
overnight hours. Confidence in seeing 4-6 ft seas in the
northern coastal waters has increased enough to hoist SCA
headlines from this afternoon into early Thursday. Elevated seas
should be rather short-lived with seas averaging 2-4 ft from
late Thursday morning through early next week. Guidance
continues to slow the frontal passage across the region Thursday
with additional showers and storms likely south of the boundary
Thursday afternoon. Still think the front will move south of
the waters on Friday with N or NE winds 5-10 kt behind the
boundary. Sub-SCA winds/waves/seas look to persist well into
next week.

A moderate rip current risk is forecast today and tomorrow for the
northern beaches (including Ocean City). Low rip risk today and
Thursday for VA Beach into the northern NC OBX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record high min temperature was tied yesterday/Tue 7/16 at
SBY. Records are listed below for today/Wed 7/17. Record highs
are unlikely and although record high mins may be challenged,
showers and storms late in the day/tonight may lead to calendar
date mins lower than what is observed this morning.

- Record Highs:

- Site:  Wed 7/17

- RIC:   100 (1980)
- ORF:   100 (1887)
- SBY:    99 (2012)
- ECG:    99 (1942)

- Record High Mins:

- Site:   Wed 7/17

- RIC:    76 (2005)
- ORF:    80 (2021)
- SBY:    80 (1983)
- ECG:    80 (2019)

- Highest 1-hr Heat Index Value on record (P.O.R. 1948-2024):

- RIC:   117 (7/17/1980)
- ORF:   118 (8/18/2017)
- SBY:   122 (7/15/1995)
- ECG:   119 (7/5/1999)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for MDZ021>024.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-
     509>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ631-
     632-634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/JKP
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...RHR
CLIMATE...