695
FXUS61 KAKQ 181938
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
338 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms continue today as a cold front slowly pushes
through the area. Showers diminish tonight as the front moves
south, then focus mainly over southern Virginia and North
Carolina Friday. The front lifts back north, bringing unsettled
conditions back to most of the area on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 900 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Additional heavy rainfall likely today across south-central/SE
  VA & NE NC where a Flood Watch is in effect until Midnight.

- Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 9 PM for SE VA and
  NE NC.

9AM Update:
Decided to add a few more of our SW counties to the Flood Watch
today (Mecklenburg/Brunswick/Greensville and Northampton NC)
based on rainfall reports from last night of 1-3" and locally
over 4" in SW Mecklenburg County around Clarksville. In
addition, streamflows have seen a modest rise in this area.
These conditions combined with the potential for more heavy rain
this afternoon warrant the expansion of the Flood Watch.

Previous discussion below...
The latest analysis indicates an upper level trough over
Ontario/Quebec, with a shortwave pushing east towards the St
Lawrence Valley. At the sfc, a cold front extends SW from low
pressure across Quebec, to near the western slope of the
Appalachians. Warm and very humid locally with just a few
showers over the SE. Heavier rain from a few hrs ago has pushed
offshore, but given PWATs still ~2.4" across the SE in advance
of the front, have decided to issue a Flood Watch for far SE VA
(including southside Hampton Roads and all of NE NC). This is
approximately co-located with the latest 00Z/18 HREF PMMs 50%
contour for 3"/3hr (a small are with a 70% contour is still in
place over mainly the center of our NE NC zones). There is a
Marginal ERO for most of the remainder of the forecast area, but
expect showers to diminish in coverage and intensity later in
the aftn in these areas as drier air moves in from the NW.

Will also need to watch the severe weather potential this aftn
afternoon with a few of the CAMs being quite aggressive. There
will again be plenty of instability tomorrow, with ~2000 to 3000
J/kg of MLCAPE in place across the region despite the clouds.
We will also have slightly more effective shear over the area
compared to today, with 25-30 kt. The primary hazard continues
to be damaging wind gusts, with the hail threat remaining
limited due to weak mid- level lapse rates (though SPC does show
a 5% prob for hail). If we can fully destabilize, as some of
the CAMs have been showing, there is the potential for a
corridor of greater damaging wind potential. For now, SPC has
the far southern portion of VA and NE NC in a Slight risk and a
Marginal to up into central VA including metro RIC.


The front pushes just south of the local area tonight into
Friday, with the highest rain chances confined to the southern
areas. With some clearing and drier air/lower dew pts, lows Thu
night drop into the low-mid 60s NW, with lower 70s SE (where its
stays humid with more clouds).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers/storms south on Fri, but mainly dry north.

-Showers/storm chances increase Saturday as the front lifts back
 north.

Drying out for the northern half of the area Friday, with only
scattered shower and storm chances by Friday afternoon (over the
south). Partly sunny N and mostly cloudy S with high
temperatures mainly in the low-mid 80s (more comfortable N and
central where dew pts will be in the 60s).

The upper trough moving into New England looks to flatten out later
Friday while the area of high pressure off the Southeast coast
begins to gradually retrograde back westward slightly. The front is
forecast to lift back north into the southeastern portion of the
area and stall out into Saturday. The best rain chances Friday night
will be across northeast North Carolina in the vicinity of the
boundary, then chances spread back north on Saturday as the front
shifts. The higher rain/storm chances on Saturday will be south of
the I-64 corridor where likely PoPs remain in the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled with above normal rain chances.

- Humid with average temperatures fairly close to normal.

An upper trough will generally sit over the central part of the
country, while an upper ridge remains centered off the Mid Atlc
and SE coast. This pattern remains fairly consistent through
the extended period, keeping a moist SW flow aloft in place.
A nearly stalled frontal or sfc trough will be near or over the
region, with at least high chance PoPs each day, focused
primarily in the aftn/evening (40-60%). Variably cloudy, very
warm and humid through the period, with highs generally in the
mid 80s to near 90, with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT Thursday...

Showers and tstms will move across the area from west to east
this afternoon and evening, with flight restrictions likely in
heavy rain. Strong gusty winds will also be possible in the
strongest storms, especially across southern VA and NE NC
between ~18Z and ~00Z. The front will push farther S tonight as
drier air pushes in from the NW, with some local IFR-MVFR
restrictions still possible at ORF/PHF/ECG, mainly VFR to the
north.

Outlook: Mainly VFR/dry Friday over the north and central, with
flight restrictions possible mainly for ECG. The boundary lifts
back N Saturday with showers and tstms scattered to likely for
most areas. Sunday will see scattered, mainly aftn/evening
showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Showers and thunderstorms could produce strong-severe wind
  gusts this afternoon and evening over the waters.

- Generally benign conditions expected outside of any
  thunderstorms this weekend.

A cold front is located in the vicinity of the waters this
afternoon. Winds are NW 5-10 kt across the N and SSE 5-10 kt
across the S. Along the front, showers and storms have
developed and may pose a threat of strong wind gusts, heavy
rain, and frequent lightning to mariners through this evening,
in addition to locally higher seas/waves. A severe thunderstorm
watch is in effect for the southern waters through 9 PM. Outside
of storms, generally quiet conditions with winds becoming
northerly tonight. There may be a brief surge in winds
immediately behind the front near or just after sunrise, though
confidence in SCA conditions is very low. For now, expecting
10-15 kt winds with gusts to 20 kt. E/NE flow lightens Friday
afternoon, with the wind direction shifting to the SE and then S
for Saturday as the front lifts back N as a warm front. Benign
conditions are expected Sunday- Tuesday with sub-SCA S/SW winds.
Afternoon showers/storm chances continue through the period.
Waves and seas average 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft, respectively.

A moderate rip risk continues across nrn beaches today. While NNE/NE
winds will be elevated only briefly Friday morning/early Friday
afternoon, there may be enough chop and wind waves to suggest a
moderate rip risk and have introduced this into the SRF.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ012>017-030>032-
     102.
VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ065-079-087-
     095>098.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJB/LKB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...SW