861
FXUS61 KAKQ 182014
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
414 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move east across
southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina through this
evening before diminishing tonight as a front stalls nearby. The
front lifts back north, bringing unsettled conditions back to
most of the area over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 415 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A Severe Thunderstorm Watch and Flood Watch will remain in
  effect for SE VA & NE NC through this evening.


As anticipated, strong to severe thunderstorms along with
locally heavy downpours have focused over SE VA and NE NC late
this afternoon. This activity will gradually push south/east
through the late evening hours, and should exit our CWA by or
just after 10 pm. This activity is in advance of a cold front
moving SE that will push south of the local area tonight into
Friday while becoming stationary, with the highest rain chances
confined to the southern areas. Partial clearing and some drier
air/lower dew pts will work into our NW counties late, lows
tonight drop into the mid 60s NW, with low-mid 70s SE (where
its stays humid with more clouds).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 415 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers/storms south on Fri, but dry north.

-Showers/storm chances increase Saturday as the front lifts back
 north.

Drying out for the northern half of the area Friday, with only
scattered shower and storm chances by Friday afternoon (over the
south). Partly sunny N and mostly cloudy S with high
temperatures mainly in the mid 80s (more comfortable N and
central where dew pts will be in the 60s).

An upper trough moving into New England looks to flatten out
later Friday while the area an high pressure off the Southeast
coast begins to gradually retrograde back westward slightly. The
front is forecast to lift back north into the southeastern
portion of the area and stall out into Saturday. The best rain
chances Friday night will be across south-central VA and NE
North Carolina in the vicinity of the boundary, then chances
spread back north on Saturday as the front shifts north. The
higher rain/storm chances on Saturday will be mainly south of
the I-64 corridor where likely PoPs remain in the forecast.
Highs Saturday in the low-mid 80s.

A positively tilted trough will start to dip down into the mid
Mississippi Valley on Sunday, as the upper ridge remains
centered off the SE coast. The stalled front won`t move very
much, but it does become a bit more diffuse on Sunday so
generally should see rain chances focus in the aftn/evening
rather than all day. Variably cloudy and a bit warmer with highs
in the mid 80s to around 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled with above normal rain chances.

- Humid with average temperatures fairly close to normal.

An upper trough will generally sit over the central part of the
country, while an upper ridge remains centered off the Mid Atlc
and SE coast. This pattern remains fairly consistent through
the extended period, keeping a moist SW flow aloft in place.
A nearly stalled frontal or sfc trough will be near or over the
region, with at least high chance PoPs each day, focused
primarily in the aftn/evening (40-60%). Variably cloudy, very
warm and humid through the period, with highs generally in the
mid 80s to near 90, with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT Thursday...

Showers and tstms will move across the area from west to east
this afternoon and evening, with flight restrictions likely in
heavy rain. Strong gusty winds will also be possible in the
strongest storms, especially across southern VA and NE NC
between ~18Z and ~00Z. The front will push farther S tonight as
drier air pushes in from the NW, with some local IFR-MVFR
restrictions still possible at ORF/PHF/ECG, mainly VFR to the
north.

Outlook: Mainly VFR/dry Friday over the north and central, with
flight restrictions possible mainly for ECG. The boundary lifts
back N Saturday with showers and tstms scattered to likely for
most areas. Sunday will see scattered, mainly aftn/evening
showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Showers and thunderstorms could produce strong-severe wind
  gusts this afternoon and evening over the waters.

- Generally benign conditions expected outside of any
  thunderstorms this weekend.

A cold front is located in the vicinity of the waters this
afternoon. Winds are NW 5-10 kt across the N and SSE 5-10 kt
across the S. Along the front, showers and storms have
developed and may pose a threat of strong wind gusts, heavy
rain, and frequent lightning to mariners through this evening,
in addition to locally higher seas/waves. A severe thunderstorm
watch is in effect for the southern waters through 9 PM. Outside
of storms, generally quiet conditions with winds becoming
northerly tonight. There may be a brief surge in winds
immediately behind the front near or just after sunrise, though
confidence in SCA conditions is very low. For now, expecting
10-15 kt winds with gusts to 20 kt. E/NE flow lightens Friday
afternoon, with the wind direction shifting to the SE and then S
for Saturday as the front lifts back N as a warm front. Benign
conditions are expected Sunday- Tuesday with sub-SCA S/SW winds.
Afternoon showers/storm chances continue through the period.
Waves and seas average 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft, respectively.

A moderate rip risk continues across nrn beaches today. While NNE/NE
winds will be elevated only briefly Friday morning/early Friday
afternoon, there may be enough chop and wind waves to suggest a
moderate rip risk and have introduced this into the SRF.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ012>017-030>032-
     102.
VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ065-079-087-
     095>098.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...SW