542
FXUS61 KAKQ 210003
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
803 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy rainfall gradually tapers off this evening along a stalled
front. Not as wet Sunday with the front dropping south.
Unsettled conditions are expected through much of next week with
scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 620 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Heavy rain threat has diminished, except along the immediate
  coast. A flood watch is in effect for these areas through 10
 PM.

- Otherwise, a rather quiet night with some patchy fog
  potentially developing.

A wavy stationary front has settled just N of the NC/VA border
this afternoon. There is also a weak sfc low along this
boundary, which should slowly translate eastward through today.
Elsewhere, broad high pressure is located offshore and over the
OH Valley region. Aloft, a subtle shortwave is sliding through
the region in about ~35 kt of 500 mb flow.

Latest radar shows the majority of the convective activity (and
heavy rain) has shifted east. Therefore, have cancelled the
flood watch for much of interior VA. Closer to the coast,
activity is moving offshore as of 620 PM. Had some very
impressive rain totals total in Gloucester County and further N
on the Northern Neck (Lancaster/Northumberland Counties) with
some spots seeing 5-6"+. Refer to flash flood warnings in effect
for these locations for more information. Based on radar
trends, expect most areas to by dry over the new couple hours.
With the line of storms also now moving offshore of VA Beach,
the strong/svr threat has also ended.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies prevail overnight with lows in
the upper 60s or lower 70s. Most of the precip should be out of
the area by midnight-2 AM. Depending on where most of the falls
tonight and if there is any clearing, some patchy fog could
develop, especially W of I-95 in the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages...

- Lower coverage of showers and storms on Sunday as the front
meanders from central NC into VA in the afternoon.

- Higher coverage of storms and potential heavy rain/flooding
returns Monday.

The front remains near the area Sunday, but shower and storms are
expected to focus more across the S/SW. Fewer clouds and showers
across the northern half of the area will result in slightly higher
temps Sunday afternoon with highs ranging from the upper 80s N and
NW with mid 80s to the S. Some break in the humid conditions is
expected for the northern half of the area with dew points in the
upper 60s to low 70s while areas south of the I-64 corridor will
maintain dew points in the mid 70s and PWAT values greater than 2".
Similar the previous few days, any storm could produce heavy
rainfall and isolated flash flooding. However, the threat should be
more isolated than today and no flood watches are anticipated.
Overnight lows fall into the upper 60s to low 70s.

Not much change in the overall synoptic pattern on Monday with
continued SW flow aloft and deep moisture over the region. The front
is forecast to lift north of the area on Monday so there will be
less forcing in the low levels to focus shower and storm chances.
That said, diurnally driven convection is likely across the area
with locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible just about
anywhere in region. There was enough consensus in the global models
to increase PoPs to 70% for most of the FA. Highs Monday stay in the
mid to upper 80s with overnight lows again in the upper 60s to low
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Continued unsettled this coming week with deep moisture in
  place and daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The remainder of next week will see little change in the
overall pattern across the region with continued SW flow aloft.
Bermuda high offshore will maintain a feed of deep moisture into
the region with PWAT values generally aoa 2". Showers and
storms will generally follow a diurnal cycle, generally forming
over inland areas in the afternoon and spreading toward the
coast in the evening. Have maintained likely PoPs each afternoon
through Friday with somewhat lower chances on Saturday. There
are indications that this stagnant/wet pattern may take a break
by next weekend as sfc high pressure builds to our north and
pushes a cold front south of the area. Highs will be in the
mid-upr 80s to around 90 degrees Wednesday, then a few degrees
cooler for the latter half of the week with highs in the mid
80s. Overnight lows continue in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Saturday...

The initial round of showers/tstms has pushed offshore as of
00z. Primarily VFR aside from some patch MVFR cigs. Another wave
is lifting across NC and this could bring some additional
showers/tstms, mainly affecting ECG later this evening. A tempo
group for thunder was included at ECG from 02-05z, and brief
IFR/MVFR vsby is possible in heavy rain. Cigs lower after 06z,
with MVFR conditions likely and IFR possible, especially at RIC,
with some MVFR fog also possible. The best chc (30-50%) for
aftn showers/tstms shifts into southern VA/NE NC Sunday, with
20% or less to the N as drier air filter into the region. Mainly
VFR after 13-14z Sunday outside of any brief restrictions from
showers/tstms.

Unsettled conditions continue Sunday night through Thursday
with daily chances of mainly aftn/evening showers/tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 335 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Prevailing sub-advisory conditions are expected to continue
  into the middle of next week, although afternoon/evening
  thunderstorms are possible each day.

Late this aftn, a warm front was laying across the srn portions
of the waters. Winds were ESE 5-15 kt north of the front, and
SSW 5-15 kt south of the front. Waves were 1-2 ft and seas were
2-3 ft. Weak sfc low pressure will move east along the front
this evening, then off the coast tonight. Winds become variable
this evening, as the low tracks over the waters before turning
to the W-NW tonight into Sun morning (and remaining well below
SCA thresholds). Despite the prevailing sub-SCA conditions, sctd
to numerous tstms could produce locally higher gusts through
this evening. Variable winds less than 10 kt are expected Sun,
with continuing shower/storm chances. SSW winds become more
established Mon and esply for Mon night through Wed, as the
pressure gradient tightens between Bermuda high pressure offshore
and weak low pressure well to our NW. It still looks to remain
predominantly sub-SCA through the period, outside of brief
higher wind gusts from convection. Waves in the bay average 1-2
ft, while seas average 2-3 ft. Seas increase to 3-4 ft across
the northern waters Tue and Wed, as SSW winds become a bit more
elevated (but still below SCA thresholds).

Will continue with a moderate rip current risk across the northern
beaches this weekend, with a low rip risk for VA Beach/Eastern
Currituck.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ078-084>086-
     090-095>098-523>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR/SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...RHR/SW
LONG TERM...JDM/RHR
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...ERI/TMG