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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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088 FXUS61 KAKQ 021030 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 630 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure lingers north of the region today and becomes centered off the coast through this evening, keeping below normal temperatures and dry conditions in place. Warmer but remaining dry on Wednesday, with heat and humidity returning late in the week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 630 AM EDT Monday... - Key Message: Dry, pleasant with below average temperatures through tonight. Latest wx analysis continues to show ~1024 mb high pressure centered over the interior northeast from W NY into the central Appalachians early this morning. Aloft, the flow is NW in the wake of the departing upper trough, with building upper ridging over the western gulf coast. A rather pleasant summer morning across the region, with temperatures mainly in the mid- upper 50s inland (locally low 50s W-NW of KRIC), with light NE flow allowing for slightly milder readings in the low- mid 60s closer to the coast at 07z under a mainly clear sky. The sfc high slides east to a positions along the northeast and mid-Atlantic coast by this evening. The resultant low-level flow veers around to the E-SE by evening. We`ll start the day mainly sunny in the morning, but the onshore flow will allow for an afternoon CU field to develop between 5-7 kft AGL. A little warmer but still comfortable, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s at the coast, and in the mid 80s inland/Piedmont. Dewpoint values remain in the 50s to lower 60s. The surface high shifts offshore tonight, veering low-level winds around to the SSE tonight. Mainly clear and still comfortable with early morning lows ranging in from the upper 50s well inland, and 60-65 east of I-95. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Gradually warming Wednesday and Thursday - Rain chances return to the forecast for the afternoon into the evening on Independence Day. Best rain chances remain W-NW of the Richmond Metro area into the VA piedmont. Surface high pressure slowly shifts farther off the coast of the mid-Atlantic/northeast coast Wed-Thu. Meanwhile, upper ridging will build over the mid-South. Low-level flow slowly becomes SSE on Wed. This should still be enough onshore flow to keep the significant heat away on Wed, despite temperatures warming back to about average. Highs mainly in the upper 80s inland (lower 80s at the coast) under a partly to mostly sunny sky, and dewpoints still in the lower 60s. Low-level flow becomes more SSW Wed night and Thursday, with a noticeably more muggy night Wed night with lows in the mid 60s to near 70F. The sfc high will be far enough offshore Thursday/Independence Day to allow for an increasing SSW flow, with hotter temperatures and increased humidity levels returning (though not to the level of what occurred on Sunday). Highs will be into the mid 90s inland with upper 80s/lower 90s at the coast. Dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s will lead to heat indices in the upper 90s to ~103F (but should be below heat advisory criteria). Rain chances do return to the forecast, with models still showing some isolated to widely scattered showers and storms popping up along pre-frontal trough Thu afternoon and night. Rain chances generally 20-40% for mainly late aftn/evening tstms (highest PoPs NW of a Farmville-Richmond-Salisbury MD line). Partly cloudy, warm and muggy/humid Thursday night with lows in the low- mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 245 AM EDT Tuesday... - Key Message: Heat and humidity return and linger for Friday into the first part of next week. Remaining a bit unsettled with a chance for mainly late day and evening showers and storms each day. After a brief break from the heat/humidity, there remains strong model consensus that the heat and humidity return for the late week period through at least the upcoming weekend and likely into the first few days of next week. The upper ridge will initially be positioned from the Gulf coast to the Carolinas, slowly shifting E off the SE coast as it slowly breaks down over the weekend. This will pump hot and humid air back into the mid-Atlantic region, while also keeping a series of upper troughs well off to our NW through the weekend (over the upper midwest/northern Great Lakes). Rather weak flow at the sfc with high pressure offshore will be conducive to a general S-SW low level flow, but with some afternoon seabreeze development possible. Overall, highs look to average in the mid-upper 90s inland, and 90-95F closer to the coast Fri- Sat, and perhaps a few degrees lower Sun-Mon as a weak cold front stalls or washes out in the vicinity of the area. Have remained a little below the typical high bias shown by NBM dewpoints, but still expect them to be back in the low-mid 70s for the period, which would yield heat indices in the 103-108F range Fri-Sun and in the 100-105 range on Monday. As for PoPs, expect daily chances for isolated/sctd mainly aftn/evening tstms (PoPs 20-40%), with the best chance in the piedmont and perhaps with the seabreeze, although uncertainty remains high at this time range. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 630 AM EDT Tuesday... VFR conditions across area terminals are expected to persist through the 12z/2 TAF period. Mainly clear/SKC at sunrise this morning. SCT CU again redevelops by midday aftn and could become locally BKN at times during peak heating. E-NE winds veer around to the E/ESE through late this afternoon, gradually clearing early this evening. Wind speeds will be 5-10kt inland and 10-15kt near the coast in SE VA/NE NC. Winds become light and variable overnight into Wed. Outlook: Aside for some patchy ground fog/low stratus Thu/Fri mornings, mainly VFR conditions should continue through Thu night. Widely scattered showers/tstms return to the forecast on Thu, with better chances for scattered afternoon and evening convection Friday and Saturday afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... As of 245 AM EDT Tuesday... Key messages: - Southeast/south winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt Wednesday evening across the Chesapeake Bay. -South winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the coastal waters and lower Chesapeake Bay Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. -A period of elevated southerly winds is possible this weekend with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. 1024mb high pressure was located over NY early this morning. This high gradually shifts E today before sliding offshore tonight into Wed. Winds were generally NE 5-15 kt this morning. Winds gradually increase to 10-15 kt by early this afternoon, becoming E by mid to late afternoon. A few gusts up to 20 kt are possible (mainly across the lower bay). Winds diminish tonight before becoming E/SE 10-15 kt with a few gusts up to 20 kt across the bay Wed afternoon into Wed evening. Winds become S by midnight Wed night. Highest winds are expected to be across the upper bay Wed evening into Wed night where several gusts up to 20 kt are possible. Cannot rule out SCAs here with wind probs of 20-40% for 18 kt sustained winds. S winds increase to 15-20 kt late Thu afternoon into Thu evening across the coastal waters and lower bay. A few gusts up to 25 kt are possible across the coastal waters with SCAs possible. Probs were 50-70% for 18 kt sustained winds across the lower bay with 20% probs for gusts up to 25 kt across the coastal waters. S winds become elevated late Fri through Sat evening with low-end SCAs possible. Daily chances for afternoon/evening storms are possible from Thu into early next week. Waves and seas were generally 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft respectively this morning. Seas build to 3-4 ft Thu afternoon through Sat night. A brief period of 4-5 ft seas is possible across the coastal waters from Chincoteague to Cape Charles Light VA Thu evening. There is a moderate rip risk across the S beaches today (due to onshore flow and 3 ft waves) with a low rip risk across the N beaches. The rip risk across the S beaches likely increases late this afternoon into this evening as swell and wind direction become orthogonal to the coastline with tides retreating. However, given the time of day (22- 00z), will keep the rip risk moderate. Have upgraded all beaches to a moderate rip risk on Wed due to favorable swell and wind direction orthogonal to the coastline and 2-3 ft waves. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM LONG TERM...LKB/MAM AVIATION...MAM/SW MARINE...RMM