318
FXUS61 KAKQ 031823
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
223 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the coast gradually settles south into the
western Atlantic through late this week. Seasonally hot but
remaining dry today. Heat and humidity build over the region
from Independence Day through early next week. Daily chances of
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms also
return from Independence Day into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 AM EDT Wednesday...

- Key Message: Seasonally warm and dry with slightly more humid
  conditions today.

Latest analysis reveals 1024mb surface high pressure just off
the northeast/northern mid-Atlantic coast. Aloft, light NNW flow
persists as a ~595 dam mid-level ridge continues to build over
the gulf coast into the eastern Great Lakes as an upper trough
pushes farther offshore. A few showers that developed along a
subtle coastal trough/theta-e ridge just SSW of the Currituck
Sound over coastal Perquimans and Pasquotank counties have
dissipated. Mostly sunny across the region with patchy stratus
over central VA lifting and dissipating. Temperatures range
through the 70s after early morning lows in the upper 50s to mid
60s (upper 60s/around 70F coastal SE VA/NE NC).

Surface high pressure offshore continues to gradually build down
the east coast today into tonight, as the upper level ridge axis
builds into the northeast. Mostly sunny and remaining dry today.
High temperatures will return to near seasonal averages ranging
from around 80F/lower 80s along the coast (with ESE flow) to
the mid/upper 80s inland where winds will begin the day E-SE,
but will veer around to the south, with slightly but noticeably
more humid conditions by mid-afternoon/early evening.

Mostly clear and dry tonight. Return flow will make for a milder
and more humid night as high pressure settles in the  Bermuda
Ridge position in the western Atlantic. Look for early morning
low temperatures to range from the mid 60s to around 70F, with
some patchy low stratus/ground fog once again toward Thu morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid conditions return for Thursday and Friday.

- Rain chances return to the forecast for the afternoon into the
  evening on Independence Day and again on Friday. Best rain
  chances remain W-NW of the Richmond Metro area into the VA
  Piedmont.

Hotter and more humid conditions for Independence Day, courtesy
of increasing SSW flow with high pressure becoming anchored off
the SE coast. High temperatures range from the upper 80s/lower
90s along the coast, to the mid 90s inland. Continue to undercut
the very moist NBM dewpoint numbers, but nonetheless more humid
Thu, with PWs to climb to ~2.00 by Thursday night. Forecast
dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70F during peak heating
result in heat indices well into the upper 90s to lower 100s.

There is a potential for widely scattered showers/tstms developing
along pre-frontal/lee trough Thursday afternoon and evening.
Rain chances are generally 20-40% for mainly late aftn/evening
tstms (highest PoPs NW of a Farmville- Richmond- Ocean City MD
line). A convective Marginal Risk remains in place from the SPC,
with gusty winds from wet microbursts the main hazard. Partly
cloudy, warm and muggy/humid Thursday night with lows in the
low- mid 70s.

PWs trend up further for Friday, reaching 2-2.25" by Friday
morning (*near daily max value). Forecast highs Friday are
similar to Thursday. However, it will be a bit more humid and
with dewpoints slightly higher, heat indices at or above 105F
are looking increasingly likely for central and SE VA and into
NE NC. There is another chance of afternoon showers/tstms
Friday along the lee trough lingering over the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

- Key Message: Heat and humidity linger for Saturday into the
  first part of next week. Remaining a bit unsettled with a
  chance for mainly late day and evening showers and storms each
  day.

The upper ridge will initially be positioned from the Gulf
coast to the Carolinas to begin the forecast period Friday
night, before it slowly shifts E off the SE coast while slowly
weakening. This will serve to pump hot and humid air back into
the mid- Atlantic region over the weekend, while also keeping a
series of upper troughs blocked well off to our NW through the
weekend (over the upper midwest/northern Great Lakes). Rather
weak steering flow at the sfc with high pressure offshore will
be conducive to a general S-SW low level flow, but with some
afternoon seabreeze development possible.

Overall, highs look to average in the mid-upper 90s inland, and
90- 95F closer to the coast Saturday, and perhaps a few degrees
lower Sunday through Tuesday as a weakening cold front pushes
toward the region, likely to ultimately stall/wash out in the
vicinity of the local area. Have remained a little below the
typical high bias shown by NBM dewpoints, but still expect them
to be back in the low- mid 70s for the period, which would yield
heat indices in the 103-108F range Saturday and in the 100-105
range on Sunday through Tuesday. As for PoPs, expect daily
chances for isolated/sctd mainly aftn/evening tstms (PoPs
20-40%), with the best chance in the piedmont and perhaps aided
by the seabreeze, with mainly diurnally-driven timing favored at
this time range as a result.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Wednesday...

High pressure is centered off the Mid-Atlantic and New England
coasts as of 18z. VFR with SCT-BKN CU inland and FEW-SCT toward
the coast, with bases of 5-6kft. The wind is mainly S/SSW 5-10kt
inland and E/SE 5-10kt along the coast. High pressure settles S
off the coast tonight. VFR under a mostly clear sky with a
light southerly wind. Some very patchy early morning stratus is
possible Thursday morning. Otherwise, VFR Independence Day with
SCT-BKN late morning to aftn CU with bases of 4-6kft and a SSW
wind of 8-12kt. A few showers/tstms could drift into RIC after
19-20z and closer to 00z at SBY.

Any showers/tstms should dissipate later Thursday evening.
There is a potential for early morning shallow ground fog/low
stratus Friday through Sunday mornings with increased low-level
moisture. This will also lead to a chc for aftn/evening
showers/tstms as a slow moving boundary approaches from the NW
Thursday/Friday and gradually weakens as it crosses into the
region over the weekend into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 220 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key messages:

- South winds increase to 15-20 kt across the upper Chesapeake Bay
  tonight with Small Craft Advisories in effect.

- Small Craft Advisories are likely to be needed late Thursday
  afternoon into Thursday evening for the Chesapeake Bay and the
  Virginia coastal waters.

- A period of elevated, diurnally-driven southerly winds is
  possible Friday and Saturday with Small Craft Advisory
  conditions possible.

High pressure is situated offshore this afternoon, its center to the
NE of local waters. High pressure will remain along the coast
through through tomorrow. A weak front will attempt to pass through
the area Friday, which will push the high away from the coast. Winds
today are out of the ESE with latest obs reflecting flow of 5-10kt.
Over the next few days, winds will follow a diurnal pattern of
becoming slightly elevated in the evenings and early overnight
hours. This evening, SSE winds will pick up to 10-15 in the coastal
waters and rivers, around 15kt in the lower/middle bay, and 15-20 in
the upper bay (which has a SCA for tonight). Tomorrow morning, winds
fall back to 10-15 everywhere and turn SSW. The pressure gradient
tightens a bit tomorrow evening between the approaching front and
the offshore high. This, combined with sea breeze effects, will
allow SSE winds to pick up to 15-20kt in the bay and coastal waters.
The rivers/currituck sound look to stay ~10kt in the evening, but
could see potential for a few elevated gusts above 15kt. Additional
SCAs will likely be need for this time period. Friday follows a
similar pattern as Thurs, except the evening increase looks to be
higher in the coastal waters (15-20kt) than in the bay (10-15kt).
Similar conditions expected Sat, then lighter winds expected Sunday.

Seas this afternoon are 2-3ft, waves are 1-2ft. Seas pick up to 3ft
overnight, then increase to 3-4ft Thursday evening through Sat.
There is potential for seas ~5ft out near 20nm Fri-Sat, mostly N of
Cape Charles. Waves will follow a general pattern of 1-2ft during
the early morning-early afternoon hours, then increasing to 2-3ft in
the evening hours with the diurnal wind increase.

Regarding rip currents, have decided to upgrade the northern beaches
to a high rip current risk for tomorrow due to increasing wave
heights, longer periods (~12sec), and near shore normal wave
directions. Have maintained the moderate risk for the southern
beaches.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures for Thu-Sat (July 4-6)

        7/4          7/5       7/6
RIC   100/2002    102/2012   105/1977
ORF    98/1997     98/2012   102/1881
SBY   100/1919    102/2012   102/2010
ECG   100/1997    100/2012    99/2012


Record high minimum temperatures Thu-Sat (July 4-6)

         7/4         7/5       7/6
RIC    77/1900     79/2012    80/2012
ORF    79/2012     80/1999    80/1999
SBY    78/2012     81/2012    77/2012
ECG    78/2012     77/2018    78/1999

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ630.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/MAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AM
CLIMATE...