065
FXAK67 PAJK 151531 CCA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
731 AM AKDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tonight/...A SFC ridge will continue
building in over the Gulf with cloud cover continuing to decrease
over the Panhandle through tonight. With mostly clear skies
overnight and light winds, the northern and central Panhandle may,
once again, see some minor fog development due to some residual
SFC moisture from the recent rains. Any fog that does develop
should dissipate fairly quickly through the early morning hours on
Friday as daytime temperatures begin to climb with highs ranging
from the mid 60s to lower 70s for the majority of the Panhandle.

As mentioned above, winds look to be largely unimpressive through
the short term forecast period. Similar to Wednesday, the inside
waters can expect sea breezes to reach up to around 15 kt by the
afternoon today for Clarence Strait, with westerly flow pushing
in along Icy Strait, as well. In the SE Gulf, winds will build up
to around 25 kt as the gradient tightens today into early Friday
morning before slackening heading into the long term forecast
period. For more info on the warm weekend ahead, see the long
term discussion.

.LONG TERM...A ridge will continue to move toward the panhandle
through this weekend causing dry and warmer weather. Temperatures
are expected to increase into the 70s in the central panhandle and
high 70s into low 80s for the southern panhandle. The highest of
these temperatures are expected Sunday. Confidence has continued
to increase on these temperatures trending higher. One thing that
has helped to increase this confidence is warm air advection at
850mb helping to increase these surface temperatures. Areas along
the coast will be the only places to not see these high surface
temperatures because a marine layer bringing in clouds is expected
to keep temperatures cooler. This marine layer will be due to a
low inversion level as the ridge goes past, and we see upper level
warming. This means low level moisture will bring in lower clouds
and this marine layer.

As for precipitation, the first front we see is weak and breaks
apart quickly as it moves toward the panhandle. There will be second
ridge that will build in the gulf Saturday night to help continue
that dry trend. Precipitation probabilities were lowered Sunday
due to higher confidence of that ridge brining a warm and dry
pattern.

Other concerns involve wind speeds in the southern gulf Friday
with a pinch in the pressure gradient creating strong breezes.
These winds are expected to weaken as the ridge moves south of the
panhandle. We may see these stronger winds again as the second
ridge starts to come through Sunday. Winds are also expected to
increase in the afternoon for Northern Lynn Canal as sea breezes
occur. These winds are expected to reach 15-20kts during nightly
over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Ridging aloft with a low developing in central
British Columbia helps clear the panhandle of clouds. Therefore,
VFR conditions, sea breezes, and the eventual development of a
marine layer is back on the menu. Expect this marine layer to be
hovering around 1500 - 2000 feet CIGS becoming prevailing over
the gulf beginning this afternoon. This marine layer does not look
to extend into outer coast land areas at this time, however, a
slight shift in overnight wind directions will change this
outcome.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM....EAB
AVIATION...NC

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