967
FXAK67 PAJK 101801
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1001 AM AKDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.UPDATE...18z TAF issuance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 509 AM Jul 10...

SHORT TERM...
Key Messages:
-An unseasonably strong front will move into the Panhandle
 Thursday, bringing gale-force winds to the outer coast and strong
 winds to the inner channels and southern Panhandle land areas.

-Peak wind impacts are expected Thursday afternoon through
 Thursday evening,with gusts up to 50 kt over the NE Gulf marine
 waters and 40 to 45 mph over southern Panhandle communities.

-A weak to moderate atmospheric river will bring moderate to heavy
 rain to the central and southern Panhandle Thursday evening into
 early Friday, with 1 to 2 inches of total rainfall expected.

-With heavy rainfall expected, a Flood Advisory is in effect for
 the Ward Lake area near Ketchikan, with potential for small
 stream and creek flooding through Friday.

Details:

Winds: An unseasonably strong gale force front will move into the
Gulf of Alaska Thursday, bringing widespread wind impacts across the
Panhandle. Sustained winds of 35 to 40 kt are expected across the
northeastern Gulf, with gusts up to 45 to 50 kt possible near Kayak
Island Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Elsewhere, winds will
increase through the day, with strong breezes to near- gale
conditions across the northern and central inner channels. The
southern inner channels are expected to reach gale force by Thursday
evening. For land areas in the southern Panhandle: especially
Annette Island, Prince of Wales Island, and the Ketchikan
Boroughwind gusts of 40 to 45 mph are likely Thursday evening.
These winds will result in hazardous travel conditions, potential
for downed branches, isolated power outages.

Forecast confidence is medium to high on sustained wind speeds
and gusts, higher confidence in the overall timing of the wind
increase.

Precipitation:
A weak to moderate atmospheric river will accompany the front,
transporting enhanced moisture into the Panhandle with a focus on
the southern areas. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected
beginning Thursday evening and continuing into early Friday. The
heaviest precipitation is expected over southern Baranof Island,
Prince of Wales Island, and the Ketchikan area. Rain rates of 0.10
to 0.15 inches per hour are likely, with 24-hour totals ranging from
1 to 2 inches. Port Alexander and Ketchikan show a 60 to 80% chance
of at least 0.15 inches falling in a one-hour period Thursday
evening. Higher terrain may see isolated rates up to 0.25 inches per
hour. A Flood Advisory has been issued for the Ward Lake area near
Ketchikan, where streams and creeks may reach or exceed bankful.
Minor flooding impacts are possible, particularly in low-lying or
poorly drained areas. Forecast confidence is medium to high on both
precipitation amounts and timing.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/

Key messages:
- Thursday system dissipates through Friday
- Another weak low continues impacts for southern panhandle Saturday
- High pushes up from the south, dry but clouds linger next week

Details: Impacts from Thursday`s front will decrease Friday
before another low moves into the eastern gulf. The gale force
front reaching the outer coast Thursday afternoon into the evening
will steadily decrease in strength through Friday afternoon. SW
winds following the front are expected to range from 15 to 20 kts
(17 to 23 mph), shifting SE as the next front moves in. The
atmospheric river previously helping to fuel the front is shifting
south to be below the panhandle, but not before sending another
small plume of moisture to the southern panhandle for Saturday.
The lingering upper level low and an embedded shortwave trough
will help direct the small front onshore. The front will reach the
panhandle by early Saturday morning, bringing moderate to fresh
breezes to the southern coast and channel entrances with around
0.5 inches of precipitation expected for southern regions. Ridging
moving north through the gulf will push the low out of the
panhandle and set up for potential drier weather Sunday afternoon,
though clouds are still expected to linger through the beginning
of next week. Temperatures are still slightly below normal, though
with the drier weather coming up next week there is potential for
highs in the mid to high 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday morning continues with VFR conditions across
most of the area this morning as next front approaches the coast.
The patchy morning fog or low stratus has lifted or eroded away.

Changes from 12 is that some winds of picked up slightly ahead of
the front a few hours early. Timing of the front still looks to be
on track. Bumped up some wind speeds through midday, at end of
some of the TAFs had the Frontal band passage improvement added to
the TAF`s.

From 12z issuance..A gale force system bearing down on the
panhandle will see MVFR conditions return to much of the area
(~1500 to 2500 ft with this system), with a few areas occasionally
dropping into IFR as visibilities diminish during periods of
heavier rain. Winds rapidly strengthen through the late morning
and afternoon hours, with windy conditions and frequent strong
gusts lasting through the evening across the central and northern
half of the panhandle, and through the overnight across the
southern panhandle. Anticipate wind gusts reaching up to 40 mph at
ground level across the southern half of the panhandle - from
Sitka southward. This will coincide with wind shear from the Icy
Strait Corridor southward, and across the outer Gulf Coast. Even
though winds diminish into Friday, chances of rain and the
potential for lower ceilings remain, and frequent showers will
linger.

&&

.MARINE...
Inside waters: An incoming front will gradually increase winds
along the inside waters through Thursday morning, continuing to
increase through the afternoon across the area. By this afternoon,
southerly to south-easterly winds in the inner channels will
increase to strong breezes, up to 25 kts, with wind gusts up to 30
to 35 kts. For the southern panhandle, sustained SE-ly winds
increase to gale force up to 35 kts by Thursday evening as front
pushes inland. Strongest of these winds will be in southern
Clarence Strait near Dixon Entrance with wave heights of 5 to 7
ft. Of note, the Salmon River at Hyder is experiencing its annual
Glacial Outburst event, so mariners should travel with care within
the Portland Canal for potential debris in the water.

Outside waters: A strong gale force front pushes through the our
Gulf waters through Thursday morning. Winds will increase to gale
force up to 40 kts by Thursday mid morning over the Gulf with
strongest winds contained along the northern Gulf coast with
barrier jet formation by Thursday afternoon. Can`t rule out brief
gusts up to 45 to 50 kts for a short time Thursday evening near
Kayak Island. Gale force winds along the eastern gulf coast will
continue through Thursday before beginning to diminish Thursday
night. Along with gale force winds, waves increase to 10 to 13 ft,
with 15 to 17 ft in the northern gulf. A wave period of 15
seconds will be associated with these waves. Of note, the Salmon
River at Hyder is experiencing its annual Glacial Outburst event,
so mariners should travel with care within the Portland Canal for
potential debris in the water.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread moderate to heavy precipitation across the panhandle
will create rises in creeks and rivers Thursday into Friday
morning. With expected rain rates of 0.1 to 0.15 inches per hour
in Ketchikan, a flood advisory has been issued for the Ward Lake
area. Isolated areas and higher elevations can see hourly rates up
to 0.2 to 0.25 inches. Currently, other rivers are expected to
stay below flood stage, but can reach bank full. With widespread
moderate to heavy rain, we will continue to monitor areas as the
system approaches and is ongoing.

In addition, a Flood Advisory has been issued for the Salmon
River at Hyder as a trained weather spotter reported that the
river has begun its annual Glacial Outburst event. As of 1045pm
Wednesday, trained spotter reported around mile marker 9 of the
Salmon River highway that the river water is murky and muddy,
flowing quickly, and about 4 ft above its normal level. Spotter
further reported that the water levels had been rising quickly with
the river flow getting rougher, making surf and waves in its flow,
and trees on the edge of the riverbank starting to erode into the
river. However, water is not crossing over the highway. Minor
flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly, no major impacts
are expected at this time

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-642-644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-031>035-053-643.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...NM
LONG TERM....ZTK
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...NM
HYDROLOGY...EAB/NM

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