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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
452 FXAK67 PAJK 112314 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 314 PM AKDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .SHORT TERM...Rain returns to the panhandle as another system moves through the area alongside breezy conditions for some locations. The rain and wind will diminish on Monday, though some chances of showers will linger through the remainder of the time frame. Satellite and radar imagery shows that rainfall has begun to spread across the panhandle. Surface observations indicate that parts of the northern panhandle have already begun to report precip, and the remainder of the northern panhandle will see rain arrive through the afternoon or early evening time frame. The source of the rain is a system moving E out of the Northern Gulf. The system`s corresponding upper level reflection - a weakening trough, will still be sufficiently strong enough to eject the ridge which had been rebuilding across the area previously. As the system moves through, breezy conditions are expected for some locations, especially in the northern half of the panhandle and the Icy Strait Corridor. Winds will increase through the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday, and could reach as high as 15 to 20 kt sustained in some parts of Juneau, with stronger winds possible for parts of the far northern panhandle. These winds will be diminishing by late Sunday night, and the system itself will have largely departed the panhandle by the late afternoon. Although chances of rain are also in the forecast for much the southern panhandle, precipitation totals there will be considerably lower ( with maximum totals of up to 0.2 inches, as compared to 0.4 - 0.8 inches for the northern panhandle) given the system`s continued weakening. Improving conditions are expected through Monday, with only residual showers by late Monday afternoon. The synoptic scale flow from the WNW is one that is less than favorable for continuing shower activity, and so anticipate that despite the lingering chances of precip, many areas will likely see a dry second half of the day. Clearing skies in the wake of the departing system will help set the stage for the arrival of fog across much of the area Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Given the clearing skies on Monday, expect that temperatures in some areas will reach as warm as the upper 60s, though lower 850 mb temperatures will help put a cap on any truly warm weather for the immediate future. Low temperatures will largely stay in the 50s across many areas near sea level Sunday night, but could drop into the 40s for some locations Monday night as clearing skies enable more radiational cooling. The forecast generally remains largely on track. Increased winds across Cross Sound and Icy Strait given the anticipated system track, and made some minor adjustments to temperatures given anticipated cloud cover. Also accelerated the forecast departure of the system across the northern panhandle, given slightly faster than previously progged system motion. .LONG TERM.../Tuesday to Friday/... Quick hits for next week: -Rainy start for some in the mid-range. Dry weather late week for all. -Moderate chances (40-70%) of rain linger into Tuesday with PoPS decreasing Wednesday, leaving Thursday and Friday dry. -Marine winds will be strongest in the Lynn Canal area, at around 10 to 20 knots at times with some evidence showing near 25 knot wind speeds possible. The rest of the inner channels look to have wind speeds around 5 to 15 knots. -Daytime temps will be near normal with a warming trend for the second half of the week. -Nighttime temps will be cooler than normal with morning lows in the 40s for much of the central panhandle. Details for next week: On the heels of an exiting trough, a 500mb low will move towards the northern Gulf, keeping chances for rain in the forecast for mainly the northern panhandle. The southern panhandle may end up being on just enough of a ridge that would keep the bulk of the rain at bay. Wednesday into the weekend, 500mb ridging sets up, giving the panhandle another few days of dry weather. Inner channel marine winds look to be around 5 to 15 knots for most of the area. The main exception is Lynn Canal, where stronger winds may end up setting up. The NBM is hinting at wind speeds around 10 to 15 knots, which usually translates to winds around 20 to 25 knots. So while the marine forecast for Lynn Canal is set to 15 to 20 knots, the confidence is low and may need to be increased as we get closer. For temperatures, according to the EURO Ensemble and GEFS 850mb temps, it could be a chilly morning Wednesday. 850mb temps could dip to near 2 to 3C, which is cooler than normal for mid-August. So went with temps in the low to mid 40s for parts of the central and northern panhandle. Temps in the mid 40s aren`t hugely impactful but it`s a gentle reminder of the cooler temps on the way. && .AVIATION...Aviation conditions along the NE outer coast are already starting to degrade as a new front moves in from the west this afternoon. Yakutat and Elfin Cove are reporting IFR conditions with ceilings as low as 700 ft and 1 1/2 mile vis. There are also some breezy conditions with the front with Yakutat gusting to 20 kt currently. That is going to spread inland this evening and overnight with the northern half of the panhandle seeing the brunt of it. Expect IFR conditions overnight and possibly tomorrow morning before conditions gradually improve into Monday. Some breezy conditions likely in the north tonight as well, but nothing greater then 20 kt. Exception is Skagway and upper Lynn Canal where winds are gusting to 35 kt this afternoon. Those winds will mostly persist overnight before diminishing tomorrow morning. && .MARINE...Elevated winds will persist across the outer coastal waters and inner channels through the remainder of Sunday, with wind speeds increasing through Sunday evening in the inner channels as a system moves into the panhandle. Winds will diminish across most of the inner channels through the latter half of Monday as the system departs, though northern Lynn Canal will prove to be the exception. Small craft conditions are anticipated for many of the outer coastal waters and near some of the ocean entrances and Lynn Canal. Some gale force conditions are expected through the early evening hours on Sunday for parts of the northern gulf. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ318. MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ651. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-053-643-644-652-661>664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...GFS LONG TERM....GJS AVIATION...EAL Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau