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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
191 FXAK67 PAJK 141422 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 622 AM AKDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SHORT TERM.../Through Tonight/...As a weakening trough continues to move away from the region to the northeast and a SFC ridge of high pressure builds into the area from the Gulf, isolated showers will depart the far northeastern Panhandle and breaks in the clouds will become more common, today. The remainder of Southeast Alaska will remain dry through the period. As for winds, they will, for the most part, stay around 15 kt or less for most of the Inner Channels as the pressure field orientation will become more parallel to the north-south oriented Inner Channels, and the gradient will also be progressively relaxing through the period. The only potential exceptions will be areas like northern Lynn Canal or near some of the ocean entrances, where more enhanced winds are possible, at times, earlier on in the timeframe. High temperatures will remain between 60 and 70 degrees from north to south, respectively, today. .LONG TERM...Overall pattern of drying and warming weather to end the work week remains on track in the long term forecast period. For Friday, there is a decaying system set to pass into the northern gulf moving east from Cook Inlet. However, there is decent model uncertainty in regards to if this system will remain organized enough to bring appreciable precipitation to the NE gulf coast. This will largely depend on the strength of the ridge in the gulf and upper level support. Overall though this would likely still keep the inside waters predominantly dry, though residual cloud cover can`t be ruled out. By Sunday, there is more model agreement in an embedded short wave trough trying to bring some light precipitation to the northern panhandle while the southern panhandle looks to continue to remain dry until the start of next week. With the ridge in place and diminishing cloud cover, daytime highs are expected to gradually increase heading into the weekend for most of the panhandle. With the ridge in the central gulf strengthening, the gradient over the SE gulf will increase and produce winds of around 25 kt by Thursday night and continue through Friday. For the inside waters, afternoon sea breezes under clearing skies are the primary action. However, with the ridge building in and low pressure passing through the Canadian interior, Taiya Inlet and up the Klondike Highway will likely see winds of 25 kt with higher gusts on Friday. && .AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions for the panhandle during the day time period with few clouds. Once again, sea breezes look to invade during the latter half of the morning and through the afternoon. As many around SE AK might expect, Skagway will be hit hardest by the increase in southerly wind speed. One big question mark in today`s forecast is the development of a marine layer off shore. If it develops, expect widespread MVFR CIG conditions along the coastline, but not extending far into the inner channels. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLC LONG TERM....STJ AVIATION...NC Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau