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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
296 FXAK67 PAJK 172257 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 257 PM AKDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .SHORT TERM...Clear, dry, and warm weather will persist through the weekend over the panhandle as a ridge remains anchored in the central gulf. Highest daytime temperatures are still expected on Sunday across the panhandle from the mid 70s up to the low 80s. Warmest temperatures are expected to be in the south as well as locally higher further inland away from any sea breeze influence. Speaking of which, that will be the primary winds to keep an eye out for in the inner channels on Sunday. For Sunday into Monday, a marine layer will push into the outer coast once more and into Icy Strait as the ridge axis turns over. This will likely lead to low ceilings as well as the possibility of drizzle overnight and into early Monday for the NE coast. For the southern panhandle, a short wave trough will bring a chance of rain along with shift to southerly wind up to 20 kt to Clarence Strait with higher gusts possible. For more information on this quick moving feature, see the long term discussion below. .LONG TERM...The greatest change made in the long term forecast was for winds in the southern inner channels Monday morning. At this time, a low moves south of the panhandle strengthening winds and slightly increasing precipitation chances. Clarence Strait will have the most impact with strong breezes from Sunday into the Monday morning period. This low south of the panhandle quickly moves past as another low enters the northern central gulf. This is where the entire panhandle can expect to see some precipitation Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning/early afternoon. Although rain is expected, it will be light and have little accumulation. Values expected are between 0.10 to 0.25 inches for most of SE Alaska. After this day of rain, chances of precipitation drop for Wednesday and Thursday. There is another chance late in the week into the weekend, but there is uncertainty with timing. Currently, rain chances are expected to reenter the panhandle early Friday as a new low pressure system enters the gulf. Other wind impacts include strong breezes in Northern Lynn Canal and Taiya Inlet Monday due to heating that tightens the pressure gradient. Some limitations include increased cloud cover that can lower heating to then decrease the chance of strong breezes occurring. && .AVIATION...Ridge persisting through the weekend with VFR conditions continuing throughout the panhandle. The upper cloud deck also continues to clear out in the evening giving mostly clear skies. Localized fog with IFR conditions expected in PAKW in the early morning Sunday, similar to the previous day. The sea breeze picks up in Northern Lynn Canal but weaker than Friday, with no shear expected. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...STJ LONG TERM....EAB AVIATION...JG Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau