296
FXAK67 PAJK 172257
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
257 PM AKDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.SHORT TERM...Clear, dry, and warm weather will persist through
the weekend over the panhandle as a ridge remains anchored in the
central gulf. Highest daytime temperatures are still expected on
Sunday across the panhandle from the mid 70s up to the low 80s.
Warmest temperatures are expected to be in the south as well as
locally higher further inland away from any sea breeze influence.
Speaking of which, that will be the primary winds to keep an eye
out for in the inner channels on Sunday.

For Sunday into Monday, a marine layer will push into the outer
coast once more and into Icy Strait as the ridge axis turns over.
This will likely lead to low ceilings as well as the possibility
of drizzle overnight and into early Monday for the NE coast. For
the southern panhandle, a short wave trough will bring a chance of
rain along with shift to southerly wind up to 20 kt to Clarence
Strait with higher gusts possible. For more information on this
quick moving feature, see the long term discussion below.

.LONG TERM...The greatest change made in the long term forecast was
for winds in the southern inner channels Monday morning. At this
time, a low moves south of the panhandle strengthening winds and
slightly increasing precipitation chances. Clarence Strait will have
the most impact with strong breezes from Sunday into the Monday
morning period.

This low south of the panhandle quickly moves past as another low
enters the northern central gulf. This is where the entire panhandle
can expect to see some precipitation Monday afternoon through
Tuesday morning/early afternoon. Although rain is expected, it will
be light and have little accumulation. Values expected are between
0.10 to 0.25 inches for most of SE Alaska. After this day of rain,
chances of precipitation drop for Wednesday and Thursday. There is
another chance late in the week into the weekend, but there is
uncertainty with timing. Currently, rain chances are expected to
reenter the panhandle early Friday as a new low pressure system
enters the gulf.

Other wind impacts include strong breezes in Northern Lynn Canal and
Taiya Inlet Monday due to heating that tightens the pressure
gradient. Some limitations include increased cloud cover that can
lower heating to then decrease the chance of strong breezes
occurring.

&&

.AVIATION...Ridge persisting through the weekend with VFR
conditions continuing throughout the panhandle. The upper cloud
deck also continues to clear out in the evening giving mostly
clear skies. Localized fog with IFR conditions expected in PAKW in
the early morning Sunday, similar to the previous day. The sea
breeze picks up in Northern Lynn Canal but weaker than Friday,
with no shear expected.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....EAB
AVIATION...JG

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