462
FXAK67 PAJK 071256
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
456 AM AKDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday night/ Rather quiet short range
period today. The advance and retreat of the low marine layer
clouds and how they effect local weather are the main concerns
over the next 24 hours. Currently, most of the Gulf and the
northern inner channels are under that layer of clouds though
ceilings rise as you get farther from the outer coast (Juneau,
Skagway, Haines, and Angoon have ceiling around 3500 ft or
higher).

For today, the marine layer clouds are expected to retreat with
only the western part of Icy Strait and the outer coast north of
Point Ommaney still seeing mostly cloudy skies by afternoon. Areas
that clear out will likely have temperatures reach into the upper
60s or low 70s as a result. Cloudy areas will mainly be in the 60s
for highs. The clouds are expected to invade again tonight with
most of the northern inner channels and outer coast seeing cloud
cover again. Some uncertainly on how far the clouds retreat and
advance over the next 24 hours which could affect observed
temperatures.

Winds are expected to remain mostly low. Highest winds are in the
gulf with NW 20 kt across the southern near shore waters through
the period. Strongest winds in the inner channels will mainly be
from afternoon sea breeze circulations when they do form.


.LONG TERM...Overview: High pressure ridge over the AK Gulf
remains in place into the weekend keeping overall quiet weather.
An active pattern returns mid week.

On Monday, the ridge will remain strong with anticyclonic flow
aloft. The result is a clearing of skies throughout the panhandle
with temperatures in many areas hitting above 70 degrees. Naturally,
typical sea breezes will develop, and areas around Point Couverden,
Cross Sound, and Northern Lynn Canal will increase wind speeds in
the afternoon. Otherwise, enjoy the calmer weather before clouds and
potentially rainy and windy pattern sets in mid week.

Wednesday begins an active pattern for the panhandle with the
entrenched ridge slowly being broken down on Tuesday. Model
consistency on this particular front has not been ideal, but what
can be said is that winds will generally increase to at least 15-20
knots in the inner channels with the fronts passage. Towards the
north, troughing in the Yukon and northern British Columbia will
lead to dropping surface pressure. With the rising pressure in the
post frontal environment, it will result in a tightening gradient in
northern Lynn Canal and Taiya Inlet. Currently, gusts to 40 mph near
Skagway are expected, but changes in placement of the troughing
could lower or raise wind speeds.

Beyond the mid week, ensemble means were largely used to make
generalizations about the upper air pattern. Ensemble spread was too
large with individual shortwaves moving along an active, trough
pattern. Ultimately, what can be said is the pattern will remain
active, but individual features cannot be determined at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mixed bag IFR to VFR flight conditions this morning across the
panhandle under a gradient of OVC to SKC skies. Main aviation
concern for today remains PAYA with persistent MVFR to IFR
conditions, isolated drizzle, and CIGS AoB 2000ft through the
period. Outside of Yakutat, anticipating improving weather and
predominate VFR flight conditions to prevail across the majority
of the area after 18-20z with CIGS AoA 5000ft. Winds should remain
around 10kts or less through today for majority of the panhandle,
except for PAGY, which could see sustained winds up to 15kts and
isolated gusts up 30kts.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ644.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...NM

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