754
FXAK67 PAJK 061303
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
503 AM AKDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SHORT TERM...High pressure remains over the Gulf this morning,
with marine stratus impacting parts of the outer coast and a low
level cloud deck across much of the northern panhandle as moisture
continues to move over the ridge axis. By the afternoon, the ridge
axis will finally be moving further to the W, encouraging more NW
flow into the N half of the panhandle, and resulting in increasing
breaks in the clouds and decreasing chances of precip, though a
few light showers may linger. Anticipate that clearing skies will
have largely taken over by Sunday, with dry weather across most
areas with the exception of Yakutat.

.LONG TERM...Overview: High pressure ridge over the AK Gulf
remains in place into the weekend keeping overall quiet weather.
Increasing probability of rain & wind mid week next week.

On Sunday and Monday, the previously entrenched ridge will
strengthen with anticyclonic flow aloft strengthening as well. The
result is a clearing of skies throughout the panhandle with
temperatures in most areas hitting above 70 degrees. Naturally,
typical sea breezes will develop, and areas around Point Couverden,
Cross Sound, and Northern Lynn Canal will increase wind speeds in
the afternoon. Otherwise, enjoy the calmer weather before clouds and
potentially rainy and windy pattern sets in mid week.

As for model preference for this forecast, while the NBM was used as
a base for the forecast, lended preference towards the 0z and 12z
Euro. These models matched relatively closely to ensemble 500 mb
heights. One particular note for beyond the drier period is the
potential for a windier system to move into the panhandle. EFI
tables are beginning to show a shift of tales of 0 with 80% of
members agreeing. What all this means is there is potential for
higher than normal wind gusts for this time of year. Furthermore,
moist, southwesterly flow hitting up against the northeast shore
will cause moderate rain for around two days mid week. Thinking the
60th to 75th percentile of the NBM for rainfall due to closer match
with the Euro solution. While the Euro solution is a fair bit wetter
(75th to ~85th percentile of the NBM), tempering down the forecast
seemed appropriate. All in all what this translates into is up to
about 1 inch per day for Yakutat mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...

Aside from PAYA, predominate MVFR to VFR flight conditions this
morning across the panhandle under BKN to OVC skies. Anticipating
another day of upper end MVFR to VFR conditions this afternoon
with CIGS AoB 6000 to 8000 ft for most of the northern panhandle.
Main aviation concern for today will be PAYA with persistent IFR
to MVFR conditions and CIGS AoB 2000ft through the period. On the
opposite end, best flying conditions for today remain across
southern panhandle with clearing skies under an upper level FEW to
SCT deck after 18z. Winds will remain around 10kts or less
through today, outside of PAHN and PAGY which will see sustained
winds up to 15-20kts and isolated gusts up 25-30kts.

&&

.MARINE...No significant systems in the area. Clouds will help
diminish sea breeze impacts. Anticipate wind speeds of up to 20 to
25 kt for parts of the outer coastal waters, northern Lynn Canal,
and ocean entrances.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-644.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...GFS

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau