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FXAK67 PAJK 081323
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
523 AM AKDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery and surface analysis show ridge of
high pressure over the SE gulf with a weakening low pressure
moving N towards the SW gulf. Guidance remains in good agreement
with light precip from a decaying occluded front will move into
the NE gulf coast this evening and spread into the rest of the
panhandle moving into Tue. Biggest forecast challenge has been
the fog along the NE gulf coast and through Cross Sound/Icy
Strait. Expect fog to dissipate by mid morning with mostly mid/hi
clouds advecting across the region. Sky cover will increase
overnight as precip chances increase. Overall, another warm and
dry day for the panhandle with temps similar to Sun.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/...
Overview: Low pressure system enters the AK Gulf bringing an active
weather pattern back to SE AK. Front moving in mid week producing
moderate rainfall. Precip chances continue into the weekend with
onshore flow and additional system tracking in.

Surface low moves up from the SW into the western AK Gulf by
Tuesday. The associated weather front should reach the panhandle
coast by Tuesday evening. While the front doesn`t have a robust
structure as depicted by latest model runs it does have a long fetch
of moisture from the south as depicted by IVT values. This should
produce periods of moderate rainfall with 24 hour rain totals of
half an inch to up to an inch Tuesday and Wednesday. These values
still fall within the typical range for this time of year so for
now no major impacts anticipated. As the low weakens to an open
wave trough late week followed by a ridge of high pressure the
resulting onshore flow will keep post frontal shower activity
going. The next system drops down over the Aleutians but weakens
just as another stronger system moves in following a similar path.
Beyond the weekend ensembles show the active, mostly wet pattern
trucking on.

&&

.AVIATION...There are two areas, Yakutat and Gustavus, that will
see IFR conditions this morning due to fog and low ceilings. As
these locations start to warm, conditions should lift to VFR with
minimal MVFR by 21Z. Otherwise, Conditions will remain in VFR
throughout the day with a high pressure remaining along the
coast and a low making its way into the gulf.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...EAB

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