Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
252 FXAK67 PAJK 041339 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 539 AM AKDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SHORT TERM...Generally drier weather for much of the panhandle, though chances of rain will linger through the Icy Strait Corridor on Thursday. A vertically stacked low continues to drift southward from S of Kodiak Island towards the northern central Pacific. An area of high pressure over the eastern and northern Gulf of Alaska will continue to persist. Weak flow pattern aloft will not lead to any systems coming in and breaking the pattern so the marine deck will continue. Expect continued clearing for the southern panhandle as the more pronounced NW winds contribute to a drying and clearing trend. Some high clouds are possible from a wave associated with the vertically staged low which is attempting to work its way N, but the wave itself will disintegrate before it reaches SE AK. Expect occasional rain across the Icy Strait corridor through the day, before precip chance start to lower through the afternoon and evening hours. A few showers for others areas in the northern panhandle may also be possible at times, given the location of the ridge axis. Primary changes were to adjust high temperatures downward for Thursday and kept elevated chances of precip for the Icy Strait corridor through the afternoon and evening time frame. Also elevated winds slightly in a few locations, but otherwise the forecast remains largely unchanged. .LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/... Overview: High pressure ridge over the AK Gulf remains in place into the weekend keeping overall quiet weather. Increasing probability of rain next week. Low pressure system over the Western Gulf will have tracked to the south while high pressure ridge over the Eastern Gulf expands. souther areas will get the most out of this pattern will dry weather and decreased cloud cover. The surface ridge keeps onshore flow for northern half of the panhandle keeping slight chances of light showers and mostly cloudy skies in place. The NE Gulf Coast will remain under cloudy skies with high pops into the weekend. Ensembles probability of mostly cloudy skies drops into the weekend while operational models have more of a spread as NAM showing wide spread low cloud deck while GFS has skies lifting and more breaks. Moderated temps where clouds remain but the southern areas warming into the low 70s due to solar heating. Warmer 850 mb air mass moves in by next week. Inner channel winds will be generally 10 kt or less initially except for the northern channels where the pressure gradient between the panhandle ridge and Yukon low will have southerly winds closer to 15 to 20 kt. Eastern gulf winds on lee side of the ridge in the 15 to 20 kt range with tip jets near coastal ocean entrances possible into the weekend. Next gulf front/low has been delayed into late Monday/Tuesday before the blocking pattern breaks down. && .AVIATION... Rinse and repeat forecast with a mixed bag of IFR to VFR flight conditions this morning across the panhandle under mostly BKN to OVC skies and isolated showers over the northern panhandle. For majority of TAF sites, conditions will marginally improve through mid morning, with flight conditions reaching upper end MVFR to low end VFR by this afternoon with CIGS AoB 5000ft. Anticipating best flying conditions to stay near PAKT and PAKW through today, going VFR conditions with clearing skies under an upper lvl BKN to SCT deck after 18z. Winds should remain around 10kts or less through today, outside of PAGY and PAHN which could see sustained winds up to 15kts and isolated gusts up 25kts. && .MARINE...No significant systems in the area. Clouds will help diminish sea breeze impacts. Anticipate wind speeds of up to 20 kt for parts of the outer coastal waters, northern Lynn Canal, and ocean entrances. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GFS/Bezenek LONG TERM....PRB AVIATION...NM MARINE...GFS Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau