Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
147 FXAK67 PAJK 051336 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 536 AM AKDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SHORT TERM...The forecast remains largely on track. The ridge of high pressure over the eastern and northern gulf remains in place. South of the gulf the vertically stacked low will persist and drift SW into the north Pacific. Occasional showers will continue to impact portions of the northern panhandle through Friday, including the Icy Strait Corridor. The southern panhandle, has a better sky clearing pattern so more sun and warmer temperature for the southern third. Minimal changes were made to the forecast. Temperatures in some locations were lowered on Friday, given lingering cloud cover, and wind directions and speeds for a few locations were changed. Increased chances of PoP over the Icy Strait Corridor given the anticipated chances of a lingering cloud deck, though most showers that do occur will likely be fairly light. .LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/... Overview: High pressure ridge over the AK Gulf remains in place into the weekend keeping overall quiet weather. Increasing probability of rain next week. Low pressure system over the Western Gulf will have tracked to the south while high pressure ridge over the Eastern Gulf expands. souther areas will get the most out of this pattern will dry weather and decreased cloud cover. The surface ridge keeps onshore flow for northern half of the panhandle keeping slight chances of light showers and mostly cloudy skies in place. The NE Gulf Coast will remain under cloudy skies with high pops into the weekend. Ensembles probability of mostly cloudy skies drops into the weekend while operational models have more of a spread as NAM showing wide spread low cloud deck while GFS has skies lifting and more breaks. Moderated temps where clouds remain but the southern areas warming into the low 70s due to solar heating. Warmer 850 mb air mass moves in by next week. Inner channel winds will be generally 10 kt or less initially except for the northern channels where the pressure gradient between the panhandle ridge and Yukon low will have southerly winds closer to 15 to 20 kt. Eastern gulf winds on lee side of the ridge in the 15 to 20 kt range with tip jets near coastal ocean entrances possible into the weekend. Next gulf front/low has been delayed into late Monday/Tuesday before the blocking pattern breaks down. && .AVIATION... Aside from coastal TAF sites, predominate VFR flight conditions this morning across the panhandle under mostly BKN to OVC skies and isolated drizzle. Anticipating VFR conditions will continue through this afternoon with CIGS AoB 6000ft, low to medium confidence of intermittent drizzle for the northern panhandle TAF sites by mid morning, Gustavus over to Juneau northward. Best flying conditions for today expected across far southern panhandle with clearing skies under an upper level FEW to SCT deck after 18z. Winds should remain around 10kts or less through today, outside of PAHN and PAGY which will see sustained winds up to 15-20kts and isolated gusts up 25-30kts. && .MARINE...No significant systems in the area. Clouds will help diminish sea breeze impacts. Anticipate wind speeds of up to 20 to 25 kt for parts of the outer coastal waters, northern Lynn Canal, and ocean entrances. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GFS/Bezenek LONG TERM....NC AVIATION...NM MARINE...GFS Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau