Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
610 FXAK67 PAJK 052238 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 238 PM AKDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SHORT TERM...High pressure remains over the gulf this afternoon. With that, mid and low level clouds remain over most of the gulf as well as the panhandle from Angoon northward. These clouds are expected to remain over the area for the evening and should see some expansion as well as high pressure continues to control the predominant weather heading into the weekend. Rain chances remain low but there is a chance of seeing some light accumulations with the low clouds over the area. Temperatures are expected to continue with a warming trend from day to day but should remain fairly comfortable for the weekend. Elsewhere, sea breezes will continue to allow for winds through the inner channels to reach up to 25 kt at times during the afternoon. But these winds are not expected to get much faster and should calm down during the evening hours. .LONG TERM...Overview: High pressure ridge over the AK Gulf remains in place into the weekend keeping overall quiet weather. Increasing probability of rain & wind mid week next week. On Sunday and Monday, the previously entrenched ridge will strengthen with anticyclonic flow aloft strengthening as well. The result is a clearing of skies throughout the panhandle with temperatures in most areas hitting above 70 degrees. Naturally, typical sea breezes will develop, and areas around Point Couverden, Cross Sound, and Northern Lynn Canal will increase wind speeds in the afternoon. Otherwise, enjoy the calmer weather before clouds and potentially rainy and windy pattern sets in mid week. As for model preference for this forecast, while the NBM was used as a base for the forecast, lended preference towards the 0z and 12z Euro. These models matched relatively closely to ensemble 500 mb heights. One particular note for beyond the drier period is the potential for a windier system to move into the panhandle. EFI tables are beginning to show a shift of tales of 0 with 80% of members agreeing. What all this means is there is potential for higher than normal wind gusts for this time of year. Furthermore, moist, southwesterly flow hitting up against the northeast shore will cause moderate rain for around two days mid week. Thinking the 60th to 75th percentile of the NBM for rainfall due to closer match with the Euro solution. While the Euro solution is a fair bit wetter (75th to ~85th percentile of the NBM), tempering down the forecast seemed appropriate. All in all what this translates into is up to about 1 inch per day for Yakutat mid week. && .AVIATION...The southern panhandle will remain in VFR conditions throughout the period with SCT to BKN ceilings in the area. There is a differnt story in the northern panhandle with conditions in mainly MVFR with periods of VFR. These MVFR conditions are due to bands of precipitation through the area that drops ceilings heights.Then the main concern will be in Yakutat with IFR conditions that started this morning expecting to continue throughout the period. Yakutat will see both low visibilities of 1 mile and ceilings as low as 500ft. These conditions will break at times to MVFR conditions. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-021-022-641-642-644. && $$ SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM....NC AVIATION...EAB Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau