320
FXAK67 PAJK 031228
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
428 AM AKDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SHORT TERM...Quiet weather returns to the panhandle as ridging
begins to rebuild across the area, though some showers may linger
through the northern half of the panhandle.

Aloft, a vertically stacked 554 decameter low in the western Gulf
south of Kodiak island continues to slowly meander south as it
remains cut off from the primary steering flow N of it. The low
itself will steer across the SW Gulf through the remainder of the
week. Downstream energy racing up from the SW across the E flank
of the low will build ridging across the western Gulf into SE AK.
Initially, the ridge will have trouble reaching into the N half of
the panhandle, and think that a few showers will linger across
parts of the area through the next few days as a result, though
chances will be on the lower side. Some clearing of the cloud deck
for the N half of the area is possible for Wednesday night as the
ridge strengthens, though think that the best chances of clearing
and for a sustained duration of drier weather will be for more
southern areas.

Some chances of fog during the early morning hours on Wednesday
for the southern panhandle with chances of fog returning to many
areas south of the Icy Strait Corridor. Only minimal changes were
made to the forecast - primarily to high temperatures on
Wednesday, which were lowered given the continuing cloud deck
across the north.


.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/...
Overview: Semi static mid level flow pattern now should remain
through the weekend keeping overall quiet weather. Increasing
probability of rain next week.

At 500 mb: Closed low over the Western AK Gulf will have dropping SE
into the N Pacific with weak ridging over the Panhandle. The low is
expected to shift back N into next week with uncertainty on how far
to the east it might shift. At the surface the gulf low also drops
to the south while high pressure expands over the gulf. The surface
ridge keeps onshore flow for northern half of the panhandle keeping
chances of light precip and mostly cloudy skies in place. Ensembles
show high probability of mostly cloudy skies. Operational models
have more of a spread as NAM showing wide spread low cloud deck
while GFS has skies lifting and more breaks developing by Thursday.
Moderated temps where clouds remain but the southern areas warming
into the low 70s due to solar heating. Warmer 850 mb air mass moves
in by next week. Inner channel winds will be generally 10 kt or less
initially except for the northern  channels where the pressure
gradient between the panhandle ridge and Yukon low will have
increased southerly winds. Eastern gulf winds pick up on lee side of
the ridge with tip jets near coastal ocean entrances possible into
the weekend. Next gulf front/low has been delayed into late
Monday/Tuesday due to the blocking pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mixed bag of IFR to VFR flight conditions this morning across the
panhandle under mostly BKN to OVC skies and isolated showers.
Anticipating conditions to marginally improve today with showers
tapering off through mid morning. By this afternoon, expect flight
conditions near upper end MVFR to low end VFR with CIGS AoB
5000ft under mostly SCT to OVC skies. Winds should remain around
10kts or less through today for majority of the panhandle, except
for PAGY, which could see southerly sustained winds up to 15kts
and isolated gusts up 25kts.


&&

.MARINE...No significant systems in the area. Clouds will help
diminish sea breeze impacts. Anticipate wind speeds of up to 20 kt
for parts of the outer coastal waters, northern Lynn Canal, and
ocean entrances.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...GFS

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