177
FXAK67 PAJK 032252
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
252 PM AKDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Thursday night / Vertically stacked low
drifting southward from S of Kodiak Island towards the northern
central Pacific. Generally area of higher pressure over the
eastern and northern Gulf of Alaska persisting and holding in
place. Weak flow pattern aloft will not lead to any systems coming
in and breaking the pattern so the marine deck will continue. A
slight reposition of the high pressure ridge will begin some
clearing for the southern panhandle as the more pronounced NW
winds which is a drying and clearing trend for the southern
panhandle. Significant changes not anticipated the nest 24 to 36
hours.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/...
Overview: High pressure ridge over the AK Gulf remains in place into
the weekend keeping overall quiet weather. Increasing probability of
rain next week.

Low pressure system over the Western Gulf will have tracked to the
south while high pressure ridge over the Eastern Gulf expands.
souther areas will get the most out of this pattern will dry weather
and decreased cloud cover. The surface ridge keeps onshore flow for
northern half of the panhandle keeping slight chances of light
showers and mostly cloudy skies in place. The NE Gulf Coast will
remain under cloudy skies with high pops into the weekend.
Ensembles probability of mostly cloudy skies drops into the weekend
while operational models have more of a spread as NAM showing wide
spread low cloud deck while GFS has skies lifting and more breaks.
Moderated temps where clouds remain but the southern areas warming
into the low 70s due to solar heating. Warmer 850 mb air mass moves
in by next week. Inner channel winds will be generally 10 kt or less
initially except for the northern channels where the pressure
gradient between the panhandle ridge and Yukon low will have
southerly winds closer to 15 to 20 kt. Eastern gulf winds on lee
side of the ridge in the 15 to 20 kt range with tip jets near
coastal ocean entrances possible into the weekend. Next gulf
front/low has been delayed into late Monday/Tuesday before the
blocking pattern breaks down.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly static conditions for this TAF issuance with
MVFR and occasional IFR for the northern half of the panhandle and
VFR conditions for the south. Lighter winds and plenty of
moisture on the northern half will keep CIGs to around 1500 to
2500 ft through today before dropping later this evening.
Naturally, the exception is around Taiya Inlet and Skagway, where
ceiling will remain elevated as long as the southerly breeze is
strong. For the south, there is the possibility of patchy fog
developing with light winds and clear skies, particularly around
southern PoW Island.

&&

.MARINE...No significant systems in the area. Clouds will help
diminish sea breeze impacts. Anticipate wind speeds of up to 20 kt
for parts of the outer coastal waters, northern Lynn Canal, and
ocean entrances.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...NC
MARINE...Bezenek

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau