160
FXAK69 PAFG 071015
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
215 AM AKDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The cool and wet pattern continues into next week as upper level
troughing remains the dominant feature. The West Coast and Western
Interior get a brief reprieve in rainfall today, but rain returns
Monday. Across the Central and Eastern Interior, rainfall remains
likely southeast of a line from Arctic Valley to Tanana to McGrath
with another quarter of an inch to half an inch of rain expected.
Further north, in the Brooks Range to the Arctic Coast, a
rain/snow mix is possible today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...
Aloft, at 500 mb, broad upper level troughing encompasses much of
mainland Alaska, with a 532 dam (decameter) low centered over the
coastal waters north of Nuiqsut. The low center will track
eastward through Monday, while a 533 dam low in the high Arctic
northwest of Wrangel Island drops southeast to be between Wrangel
Island Point Lay by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, shortwave energy
will push across the Chukotsk Peninsula and the Bering Strait
Monday evening and to the West Coast by Tuesday morning,
continuing east across the Western Interior through Tuesday night.

At the surface, a 994 mb low is 150 NM southwest of Banks Island
with a front extending southwest to Arctic Valley to Galena. The
low lifts northeast to be 50 NM south of Banks Island Sunday
afternoon and over Banks Island Monday morning at 996 mb, dragging
the front east northeast. Meanwhile, a 1007 mb low develops near
Arctic Valley Sunday, sliding south to be centered near Venetie by
Monday morning and then weakening through Tuesday morning. A 1000
mb low in the high Arctic north of Wrangel Island Monday morning
drops south and deepens to 995 mb to be 350 NM northwest of Point
Lay Monday afternoon, continuing south to be 150 NM northwest of
Point Lay by Tuesday morning, and 50 NM west of Point Hope by
Wednesday morning. A 1009 mb low moves into the Gulf of Anadyr
Monday morning continuing southeast to be near St Lawrence Island
Monday afternoon and then to near Norton Sound Tuesday morning.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Cooler temperatures expected today with highs largely in the 30s
to near 40. Precip continues, with the best chances across the
central and eastern Brooks Range. Given colder temperatures and
lower snow levels, a mix of rain and snow is possible today into
Monday. Accumulating snow is not expected along the coast or in
the Arctic Plain, but locations above 3000 feet in the Brooks
Range may see a slushy coating of snow. It will be difficult to
accumulate anything given the previous warm temperatures but
highest elevations near Atigun Pass could see an inch of two of
accumulation along the Highway through today. Temperatures begin
to moderate Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A brief reprieve in rain expected today, before the next round
moves in Monday morning, primarily to St Lawrence Island and areas
south of the Seward Peninsula, pushing eastward into the southern
western Interior Monday night and Tuesday. A quarter of an inch
of rain expected from St Lawrence Island to Nome to McGrath, with
half an inch expected over the Y-K Delta. A front dropping out of
the Arctic Monday night into Tuesday will bring more rain. Another
quarter of an inch to three quarters of an inch expected Tuesday
into Tuesday night across the Western Interior, with the highest
amounts falling in the Upper Kuskokwim Valley. Temperatures
remain cool.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Rain persists today, primarily southeast of a line from Arctic
Valley to Tanana to McGrath with another quarter of an inch to
half an inch possible, with locally higher amounts in the Alaska
Range. Rain chances continue Monday with the best chances from
Eagle southwest to the Alaska Range, where another tenth of an
inch to a quarter of an inch of rain is possible. A front pushing
across the Western Interior Tuesday will approach the Central
Interior increasing rain chances late Tuesday. Temperatures slowly
warm Monday and Tuesday into the upper 50s in the northwest and
the and lower to mid 60s southeast. Southerly gap flow develops in
the Alaska Range passes Monday night into Tuesday.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...The rainy and cooler pattern will
continue into next week as upper level troughing remains the
dominant feature. By the end of next week temperatures moderate,
especially over the eastern half of the state as an upper level
low in the Gulf brings southerly flow aloft.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Unseasonably cool and generally wet conditions persist across
northern Alaska. Another quarter to half an inch of rain expected
today along and southeast of a line from Arctic Village to
McGrath. Quieter conditions along the West Coast and Western
Interior today, will give way to more rain Monday, with another
quarter of an inch to half an inch of rain expected from the
southern Seward Peninsula south to the Yukon Delta. On Tuesday,
with the approach and passage of yet another front, Another
quarter of an inch to three quarters of an inch expected Tuesday
into Tuesday night across the Western Interior, with the highest
amounts falling in the Upper Kuskokwim Valley. Breezy west to
southwest winds across the Interior summits today with lighter
winds Monday and Tuesday for most locations. Weak southerly gap
flow develops in the Alaska Range passes Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect continued rises on rivers draining the Brooks Range from
recent heavy rain, including, but not limited to, the Sag, Wulik,
Kobuk, Noatak, and Koyukuk Rivers and smaller creeks and streams.

In the Interior, rain continues today with an additional quarter
to half an inch possible. This may also lead to rises in some
rivers and streams.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...None.

&&

$$