984
FXAK69 PAFG 061857
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1057 AM AKDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and wet pattern continues over much of the state through the
weekend. The Interior will see wetting rains today and continuing
into Sunday. Northwest coast and from Galena north will see rain
likely as well. The Brooks Range will see a rain/snow mix
Saturday into Sunday. Gusty winds in the Alaska Range will
diminish this evening.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...Models in good agreement regarding
PoPs for the Interior over the weekend. A strong shortwave will
move across the Bering Strait and into the Northern Interior on
Saturday. Westerly flow over the Interior Today will become more
southwestly on Saturday. This is a good set up again for wetting
rains over much of the Interior. Another piece of energy will
enhance rainfall over the Interior on Sunday. This shortwave is
slow moving and rain chances will linger over the Interior on
Monday. Another upper low drops down from the Arctic Monday night
into Tuesday bringing more precip to the west coast. Another
shortwave will push across the Bering Strait and southern
West coast Mon. The west coast will remain under troughing
and wet/cool conditions for much of the week.



Central and Eastern Interior...
Gusty winds in the Alaska Range through this afternoon. The
strongest winds appear to be in the AK Range passes diminishing
by Sat evening. The main area of concern will be near Isabel Pass
where wind gusts may be as high as 40-50 mph.

Rain, possibly heavy at times develops over the Central Interior
again Saturday morning and persists into Sunday. Another 0.50 to
one inch expected through Sunday afternoon. Some areas could
see more than one inch. Rain will cause river rises but no
flooding is expected at this time. Rain chances could linger into
Monday. Temps are cool around the Interior in the 50s through
the weekend. Possibly warming back up to seasonal norms by
Wednesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...The next round of precip hits
northwest Alaska and areas from Galena north on Saturday into
Sunday morning before tapering off. Monday`s rain chances may stay
from Galena south. Nonetheless, rainfall totals through Monday
are around 0.25-0.50" in the Seward Peninsula and 0.50-1.00" in
the Western Interior with the higher elevations potentially over 1
inch. Another front drops down from the Arctic Monday night into
Tuesday bringing more precip to the west coast. Temps cool
through the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Rain continuing over the Brooks Range today due a low pressure
system. Rainfall amounts around a tenth of an inch are expected
in Utqiagvik with the rest of the North Slope and Brooks Range
around 0.50 to 1 inch. Temps cool through the weekend and there
could be a rain/snow mix, or a complete changeover to snow from
the Brooks Range northward Saturday evening into Sunday morning.
Accumulating snow is not expected along the coast or in the Arctic
Plain, but locations above 3000 feet in the Brooks Range may see
a slushy coating of snow. It will be difficult to accumulate
anything given the previous warm temperatures but highest
elevations near Atigun Pass could see 2 to 4 inches along the
Highway. Otherwise, colder weather continues on Monday with the
chance for snow showers.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Looking towards the end of the week, ensembles still diverge a
bit, as expected, but it is leaning towards slightly warmer
temperatures in the east, closer to seasonal norms and
cooler/wetter in the west/north. Isolated thunderstorms could
return to the Interior by end of next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
As SW winds persist, expect sea level heights to remain about
0.5-2 feet above the normal high tide line this weekend from Nome
South. The highest water levels are expected at Koyuk with 4-5
feet of water level rise through this weekend. Those with items
on the beach should continue to take precautions as water levels
remain high until the beginning of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Another round of wetting rains over the western and Central
Interior. Rain, possibly heavy at times develops over the Central
Interior Saturday morning and persists into Sunday. Another 0.50
to one inch expected through Sunday afternoon. Some areas could
see more than one inch. Less amounts over the Yukon Flats. In
terms of wind, Southerly flow strengthens in the AK Range passes
today into Saturday, with gusts of 35 to 45 mph expected,
potentially hitting 50 mph in the eastern Alaska Range. Winds
diminishing this evening. Winds diminishing over much of the
Interior on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect continued rises on rivers draining the Brooks Range from
recent heavy rain, including, but not limited to, the Wulik,
Kobuk, Noatak, and Koyukuk Rivers and smaller creeks and streams.

In the Interior, rain is going to be moving through each day
through the weekend as well with the highest rainfall amounts
upwards of 1.00-2.00". The highest amounts should be expected in
the higher terrain. This may also lead to rises in some rivers and
streams.


&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$