091
FXUS63 KABR 062328 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
628 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few afternoon and evening thunderstorms could become strong to
  potentially severe with winds around 60 mph and hail around 1 inch
  in diameter. Areas from south central South Dakota to northeast
  South Dakota and west central Minnesota remain in a Marginal Risk
  (level 1 of 5) for severe storms.

- Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances (15-25%) remain in the
  forecast on both Monday and Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon
  and evening hours across northeastern SD into west central MN.

- Expect a gradual warming trend through the work week. By the end
  of the week we should be seeing temperatures 5 to 10 degrees
  above average (highs in the upper 80s-90s).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

A weak trough continues to work from west to east across the region.
Daytime heating has helped the atmosphere become sufficiently
unstable (CAPE ~2000 J/KG), enough to maintain a few stronger pulse
storms this afternoon. While no areas are subject to widespread
severe weather, effective bulk shear remains most favorable (25
kts+) along and south of US Highway 212. This area is in a marginal
risk (1 of 5) for severe storms through this evening. The system
should exit to the east tonight. With plenty of low level moisture
and light winds, may also see some patchy fog development during the
overnight hours.

The region should mainly be on the back side of the upper level
trough Sunday. This returns us to ideal conditions (instability,
steep low level lapse rates) for daytime heating showers and
thunderstorms. The severe threat remains low on Sunday.

Ensemble temperatures spread remains very tight, generally less than
5 degrees, for the near term. This continues the high confidence in
the temperatures forecast, which maintains slightly below normal
temps with lows in the mid to upper 50s or near 60 degrees and
Sunday high temps in the upper 70s to near 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Not much change as Clusters continue to agree on the +PNA pattern in
place for Monday and Tuesday. The ridge finally starts to push more
eastward Wednesday with the axis over central Canada through the
Rockies. For the end of the week/weekend we really see this ridge
break down and become quite broad, with the entire CONUS underneath
it.

A high pressure system will be centered over the Rockies for Monday,
however, over eastern/northeastern SD into western MN, better
moisture/lift are noted behind the low and along the shortwave and
with cooler air aloft, per northwest flow. This in combination with
daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60 by the
afternoon could lead to the instability needed for isolated showers
and thunderstorms. Ensembles hint at this light precipitation
chances with Cape values up to 1000J/kg or so. So pops of 15-25% are
in the grids with any storms expected to dissipate by sunset. Copy
and past this setup for Tuesday afternoon and evening over the same
area with pops around 15%. High pressure will be over the area for
Wednesday but it`s a 50/50 shot between the Clusters on the
possibility of elevated diurnal shower and thunderstorms chances
over the eastern CWA. Not enough confidence to add anything in yet
to the grids. By the end of the week a neg tilted surface trough
sets up over the western Dakotas into the Northern Rockies but as
mentioned, the ridge overhead will most likely keep any precip
chances on the low side if any. Severe chances look low as wind
shear will remain weak through the week.

A gradual warmup in temperatures through the week as the ridge pushes
further east with 700mb temps around 13-15C (90% above climo per
NAEFS)and 850mb temps between 23-28 degrees by next weekend,
according to the mean ensemble. Highs will overall be in the 80s
through Wednesday. Temps will warm into the upper 80s to the mid 90s
by the end of the week, mainly around and west of the James River.
Temps will run about 5-10 degrees above average by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

An area of showers and thunderstorms will track eastward across
far northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota through
the evening hours. Periods of MVFR vsbys will be possible with the
thunderstorms. May see some MVFR cigs develop across that same
area late tonight into early Sunday morning. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail tonight and through the day Sunday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Serr
LONG TERM...MMM
AVIATION...Parkin