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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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120 FXUS63 KABR 061133 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 633 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms will track east from central SD to eastern SD by mid morning, with more afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across the area. A few of these storms could become strong to potentially severe with winds around 60 mph and hail around 1" in diameter this afternoon and evening from south central to far northeastern SD and west central MN. - Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast on both Sunday and Monday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. However, a pattern change seems likely thereafter. - Expect a gradual warming trend through the work week. By the end of the week we should be seeing temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average (highs in the upper 80s-90s). && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The early morning surface weather map showed low pressure over north central CO and high pressure over WY and western SD. At 500mb we have a broad trough across much of the U.S., excluding the southeast and southwestern states where very hot conditions have set up. A shortwave in the larger trough over far eastern MT and and northwestern SD is helping to bring the shower and thunderstorm activity to central SD this morning. Some of these have produced winds to around 35 mph and show the potential for pea sized hail. The trough will continue to sink southeast to central SD by 18Z, at the same time that a weak surface trough sets up around the same location, while the stronger surface low shifts to far northeastern CO/western NE/western KS and eventually eastern NE by 00Z Sunday. While the risk for stronger storms will mainly stay across eastern NE this afternoon, there is a chance for a few stronger storms south of a line from Lyman through Grant and Big Stone Counties. This is where there is a Marginal Risk for severe weather this afternoon, into early this evening for our far eastern counties. CAPE values again top out around 1000 J/kg. However, the best shear and lifted indicies remain south of our counties. Still, the weak surface through may help keep a couple of storms going to near severe levels this afternoon. After some drying this evening, another chance of showers and thunderstorms (around 20% chance) will push into central SD overnight, confidence is low on their occurrence and our precipitation forecast lines up with this thinking. While thunderstorms will again be possible Sunday afternoon, their coverage and intensity is expected to be less than Saturday, as the broad surface trough will be across MN by that time. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Will continue to see off-on chances for mainly diabatically driven convection Monday and Tuesday afternoons with unstable conditions thanks to mid level temperatures that are still relatively cool for this time of year (700mb temperatures between +3 and +5C). Not much overall shear however, limiting any severe weather potential. This is under the presence of this persistent upper level trough, though it should also be noted that the surface pressure pattern is rather anemic both days. Did add on to the low POPs for Tuesday to get the mention of thunder in for the afternoon (NBM POPs only in the single digits-low teens) along with a slight uptick in cloud cover to better represent convection. The western CONUS heatdome breaks down and spills over into our region late in the week. We will begin to see some 850mb thermal anomalies at that point, and NBM shows this persistent steady trend in warming the high/low 25th/75th percentiles. NBM dewpoint ranges are not anything to outside the norm however, with a lower/higher range of low 60s to upper 60s respectively, though given ample moisture recently and rapid corn growth this time of year, would expect these numbers to be somewhat underdone. At the same time, with increased heights and warm air aloft for the latter half of the work week, the probabilities for moisture trend significantly lower. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG While conditions will mainly stay VFR there is fog to 1/4 briefly at ATY at the start of the TAF period. Otherwise, the main concern will be any thunderstorms that move over MBG prior to 15Z and more that develop this afternoon as a weak surface trough and 500mb shortwave help bring focus for thunderstorm development over eastern SD (mainly ABR to ATY) which could result in small hail and stronger winds. At this point, only VCTS have been included in the forecast for this afternoon due to the lower confidence on timing and coverage area. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...Connelly AVIATION...KF