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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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199 FXUS63 KABR 061918 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 218 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few afternoon and evening thunderstorms could become strong to potentially severe with winds around 60 mph and hail around 1" in diameter. Areas from south central South Dakota to northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota remain in a marginal (1 of 5) risk for severe storms. - Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances (15-25%) remain in the forecast on both Monday and Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours across northeastern SD into west central MN. - Expect a gradual warming trend through the work week. By the end of the week we should be seeing temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average (highs in the upper 80s-90s). && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 A weak trough continues to work from west to east across the region. Daytime heating has helped the atmosphere become sufficiently unstable (CAPE ~2000 J/KG), enough to maintain a few stronger pulse storms this afternoon. While no areas are subject to widespread severe weather, effective bulk shear remains most favorable (25 kts+) along and south of US Highway 212. This area is in a marginal risk (1 of 5) for severe storms through this evening. The system should exit to the east tonight. With plenty of low level moisture and light winds, may also see some patchy fog development during the overnight hours. The region should mainly be on the back side of the upper level trough Sunday. This returns us to ideal conditions (instability, steep low level lapse rates) for daytime heating showers and thunderstorms. The severe threat remains low on Sunday. Ensemble temperatures spread remains very tight, generally less than 5 degrees, for the near term. This continues the high confidence in the temperatures forecast, which maintains slightly below normal temps with lows in the mid to upper 50s or near 60 degrees and Sunday high temps in the upper 70s to near 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Not much change as Clusters continue to agree on the +PNA pattern in place for Monday and Tuesday. The ridge finally starts to push more eastward Wednesday with the axis over central Canada through the Rockies. For the end of the week/weekend we really see this ridge break down and become quite broad, with the entire CONUS underneath it. A high pressure system will be centered over the Rockies for Monday, however, over eastern/northeastern SD into western MN, better moisture/lift are noted behind the low and along the shortwave and with cooler air aloft, per northwest flow. This in combination with daytime heating and dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60 by the afternoon could lead to the instability needed for isolated showers and thunderstorms. Ensembles hint at this light precipitation chances with Cape values up to 1000J/kg or so. So pops of 15-25% are in the grids with any storms expected to dissipate by sunset. Copy and past this setup for Tuesday afternoon and evening over the same area with pops around 15%. High pressure will be over the area for Wednesday but it`s a 50/50 shot between the Clusters on the possibility of elevated diurnal shower and thunderstorms chances over the eastern CWA. Not enough confidence to add anything in yet to the grids. By the end of the week a neg tilted surface trough sets up over the western Dakotas into the Northern Rockies but as mentioned, the ridge overhead will most likely keep any precip chances on the low side if any. Severe chances look low as wind shear will remain weak through the week. A gradual warmup in temperatures through the week as the ridge pushes further east with 700mb temps around 13-15C (90% above climo per NAEFS)and 850mb temps between 23-28 degrees by next weekend, according to the mean ensemble. Highs will overall be in the 80s through Wednesday. Temps will warm into the upper 80s to the mid 90s by the end of the week, mainly around and west of the James River. Temps will run about 5-10 degrees above average by next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Isolated showers and thunderstorms will increase in areal coverage by 20Z, especially over parts of northeast South Dakota. The strongest storms may produce large hail, gusty winds and brief heavy rain, as well as VFR CIGS/VSBYS. Due to the scattered convective nature of storms will amend TAFs as necessary to capture this impact. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Serr LONG TERM...MMM AVIATION...Serr