032
FXUS65 KABQ 032312 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
512 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

A short-lived drying trend is resulting in a downtick in storm
coverage today, with very little to no thunderstorm activity
expected on Independence Day. A backdoor front will move southwest
to the central mountain chain Thursday night and bring moisture
back to fuel rounds of storms going into the weekend. The front
will result in a gusty east canyon wind into the Rio Grande Valley
Thursday night. Burn scar flooding is possible through the
weekend due to the uptick in moisture and associated storms. A
stronger backdoor front will bring moisture west to at least the
Continental Divide late Sunday and set the stage for an active
early to mid week period with daily rounds of storms and a threat
for burn scar flooding. Far western NM will remain mostly dry and
hot through the forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

The latest water vapor satellite imagery shows a very dry airmass
overtaking much of western and northern NM as the Monsoon moisture
plume lays over to the east. A notable downtick in storms so far
today associated with the dry air moving in. At least some minor
threat for burn scar flooding will persist into the early evening
hours, but this is the lowest threat day in many days. Dry air
will overtake the remainder of the forecast area tomorrow, except
for the far eastern areas near the TX border and the far southern
mountains where isolated storms are still possible. So, impacts
to the Sacramento Complex can not be totally ruled-out for
Independence Day, but very low probabilities of burn scar
flooding. A backdoor front will progress west from the plains into
the highlands late Thursday afternoon and then continue west
Thursday night into the RGV, creating east canyon winds with
gusts to between 35-45mph. The front will replenish moisture
along/east of the central mountain chain and the NAM is modeling
sufficient moisture advection and easterly upslope flow for
forcing to produce a round of nocturnal convection that may bring
flooding rains to the HPCC burn scar and Las Vegas area. Notably,
the NAM is an outlier among the 12Z model solutions, but will be
monitored for run-to-run consistency given the potential for flash
flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Western NM will be dry and relatively hot from Friday through
Sunday under the influence of the expanding upper high along the
west coast which will be moving toward the Desert SW. Different
story from the central mountain chain eastward thanks to moisture
from the backdoor front that moved in late Thursday. Daily rounds
of daytime heating triggered convection are likely with the
potential for flooding on the HPCC and Sacrament Complex burn
scars. The NAM in particular is aggressive with the development
Friday afternoon and bullish with the qpf near/over the Sacramento
Complex which fits with moist easterly upslope flow and distance
form the upper high circulation. Severe storms are also possible
from the central mountain chain eastward from Friday through
Sunday where the combination of bulk shear (0-6km) of 30-35kts and
instability will exist. The best potential for severe storms will
be Saturday due to warmer temperatures aiding greater surface-
based instability. A stronger backdoor front is forecast to race
southwest to at least the Continental Divide Sunday night,
resulting in strong east canyon/gap winds into the RGV and Upper
Tularosa Valley. The latest GFS MOS is showing 42kts at KABQ
Sunday night. That is likely a touch high, but we`ll likely
require a Wind Advisory for this one. Moisture coming in behind
the backdoor from will set the stage for a very active early to
mid week period with daily rounds of strong storms and a renewed
threat for burn scar flooding. The upper high is forecast to
expand across most of the Intermountain West from early to mid
week and be centered over NV, bringing northern flow aloft over
our area, which would favor southward storm motion from the
mountain into the Santa Fe and Albuquerque Metros late day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 503 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Isolated SHRA/TS moving east/southeast at 23Z will taper off thru
sunset. The strongest storm cells near KSAF may make it to KLVS
however confidence is low they will survive the trip across the
Sangre de Cristo Mts. A few storm cells around KCAO will also
exit into TX by sunset. Clearing skies will develop overnight
with light winds after midnight. Independence Day will be dry
with breezy northwest winds along and west of the RGV. Terminals
like KFMN, KGUP, KABQ, and KAEG may see gusts up to 25 kt by 21Z.
Any SHRA/TS that do form will be over far southeast NM after 2pm.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 325 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

A drying and warming trend continues through Independence Day with
a downtick in wetting storms today, which will trend down further
tomorrow. A backdoor front will move west to the central mountain
chain late tomorrow and recharge moisture for daily rounds of
wetting storms from Friday through the weekend with the potential
for burn scar flooding. However, western NM will remain dry and
relatively hot under the expanding influence of an upper high
along the west coast creeping slowly eastward. Increasing
northwest flow aloft will mix down to the surface Sunday across
northwest NM and result in a few hours of critical fire weather
conditions across/near the northwest plateau. However, Farmington
has had near 2 inches of rain over the past two weeks and many
areas in northwest NM have had plenty of wetting rain, so fuels
will likely not be receptive to fire growth. A stronger backdoor
front will bring moisture west across the area Sunday night and
set the stage for a more active period from early to mid next week
with rounds of wetting storms and the potential for burn scar
flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  59  93  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  48  88  44  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  53  87  52  85 /   0   0   0   5
Gallup..........................  54  92  47  91 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  55  88  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  56  90  48  89 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  57  89  53  89 /   0   0   0   5
Magdalena.......................  61  91  61  88 /   5   0   0  10
Datil...........................  56  88  56  87 /   0   0   0  10
Reserve.........................  55  94  52  94 /  10   0   0  10
Glenwood........................  66  99  66  99 /  20  10   5  20
Chama...........................  48  83  44  81 /   0   0   0   5
Los Alamos......................  60  89  60  82 /   5   0   5  10
Pecos...........................  57  88  55  79 /  10   5  10  20
Cerro/Questa....................  46  84  44  80 /   5   5  10  20
Red River.......................  46  76  43  71 /  10   5  20  30
Angel Fire......................  40  80  40  74 /  10  10  20  30
Taos............................  49  89  50  83 /   0   0  10  10
Mora............................  53  86  49  76 /  10  10  30  30
Espanola........................  58  95  58  88 /   5   0   5  10
Santa Fe........................  59  89  59  82 /  10   0  10  20
Santa Fe Airport................  58  93  59  85 /  10   0   5  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  64  94  65  89 /  10   0   5  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  63  95  64  90 /  10   0   5  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  63  97  63  92 /   5   0   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  63  96  64  91 /  10   0   5   5
Belen...........................  61  98  60  93 /   0   0   5   5
Bernalillo......................  63  97  64  91 /  10   0   5  10
Bosque Farms....................  60  97  60  92 /   5   0   5  10
Corrales........................  63  97  62  92 /  10   0   5  10
Los Lunas.......................  60  98  60  92 /   0   0   5   5
Placitas........................  62  93  64  88 /  10   0   5  10
Rio Rancho......................  63  96  64  91 /  10   0   5  10
Socorro.........................  65  99  66  95 /  10   0   0  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  59  89  58  83 /  10   0  10  20
Tijeras.........................  60  92  60  86 /  10   0  10  20
Edgewood........................  57  92  58  84 /  20   0  10  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  93  55  85 /  20   0  10  20
Clines Corners..................  56  89  54  78 /  20   0  20  20
Mountainair.....................  58  91  57  84 /  10   0  10  20
Gran Quivira....................  58  92  56  84 /  20   0  10  20
Carrizozo.......................  66  94  65  87 /  20   5  10  30
Ruidoso.........................  63  86  57  76 /  30  20  20  60
Capulin.........................  56  79  53  76 /  30  10  30  30
Raton...........................  56  87  55  80 /  20  10  30  20
Springer........................  58  90  56  81 /  20  10  40  20
Las Vegas.......................  58  87  52  75 /  20  10  50  20
Clayton.........................  62  84  57  80 /  30   5  30  20
Roy.............................  62  87  57  77 /  20  10  50  20
Conchas.........................  65  95  61  86 /  20  10  40  20
Santa Rosa......................  65  95  61  83 /  20  10  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  66  95  61  85 /  20   5  40  20
Clovis..........................  72  96  64  83 /  20  10  30  40
Portales........................  73  97  64  85 /  20  10  30  30
Fort Sumner.....................  68  98  65  86 /  20  10  30  20
Roswell.........................  75 103  73  91 /  20  10  20  20
Picacho.........................  69  96  64  83 /  20  10  10  30
Elk.............................  64  92  60  80 /  20  20  20  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...42