994
FXUS65 KABQ 071757
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1157 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 210 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

A dry and hot Sunday is expected for most. The one exception will be
across northeast areas where storms look to develop late in the day
behind a backdoor cold front. The backdoor front surges through the
gaps of the central mountain chain around midnight Monday bringing a
strong east canyon wind to the Albuquerque Metro along with showers
and storms across eastern areas early Monday morning. Much cooler on
Monday, especially across eastern areas behind the backdoor front.
Diurnal storms will favor the central mountain chain Monday, and
along and east of the central mountain chain through mid week.
Diurnal showers and storms shift west to central and western areas
as the monsoon high moves over the central Rockies.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 210 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Finally, a quiet night across the Land of Enchantment, but this
reprieve may be short-lived.  Daytime hours today will remain quiet,
warm, dry and breezy with northwest flow aloft.  Exceptionally low
humidity values are expected for up to 10 hours across much of
central and western NM today. Additionally, temperatures are
expected to top 105 degrees around the Roswell area, and a Heat
Advisory remains in effect.

A backdoor front that is currently across southeast CO will push
into northeast NM this morning, though some breezy conditions will
occur behind it, the main show will be late this afternoon through
the overnight period. The front will continue to press southward
across the plains this evening. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop across northeast NM behind it. Ample instability
and 30-40kt of 0-6km bulk shear will allow for some storms to become
severe. Storms will continue to shift southward across the plains
overnight, but the severe threat should end by midnight. Thereafter,
precipitation should become showery with a few embedded
thunderstorms.  With PWATs also rising behind the front, some heavy
rainfall is also possible, but fortunately, it looks like this will
largely stay east of the HPCC burn scar.  The front will push
westward through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain around the
midnight hour, perhaps slightly before. Model guidance has backed
off on peak wind speeds in the ABQ metro area, so have kept the High
Wind Watch intact and will let the day shift take another look and
decide between a High Wind Warning and a high-end Wind Advisory.
Regardless, it will be quite windy given both the strong pressure
and density gradients. The strongest winds are expected below
Tijeras Canyon but windy conditions are expected at all gaps,
including Glorieta Pass, Abo Pass and near Carrizozo.

As the front continues to march westward Monday morning, moisture
will improve across the area. Showers and a few thunderstorms will
likely continue across east central and southeast NM through Monday,
keeping temperatures quite cool across all of eastern NM. This will
put into question how unstable it will become through the afternoon.
Models indicate perhaps the strongest storms in the afternoon will
be across the northern mountains, which will track southward,
perhaps reaching the ABQ Metro. But confidence on storm coverage and
intensity elsewhere is low as it may be too stable.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 210 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Temperatures moderate and heat back up areawide Tuesday as the
backdoor front washes out. Temperatures will be near average across
western and central NM and around 5 to 10 degrees below average
across. PWATs will be below 0.5 inches across northwest and far west
central NM, around 0.5 to 0.75 inches across central NM and near an
inch across the eastern plains. Showers and storms will develop over
the central mountain chain and Gila Mountains midday moving
southeast into the lower elevations come the late afternoon and
evening hours due to the upper level northwest flow in between a
strong 596 dam high over the Great Basin and the remnants of Beryl
over the central U.S. Burn scar flash flooding will be elevated for
the HPCC burn scar and the burn scars around Ruidoso. A few storms
could become strong to severe across the northeast plains due to the
directional shear from the upper level NW flow. More of the same is
expected Wednesday with slightly hotter temperatures. There could be
an uptick in showers and storm coverage along and east of the
central mountain chain due to a weak shortwave diving southeast
across the Great Plains on the backside of Beryl`s remnant
circulation over the Great Lakes.

Subtle changes are expected beginning Thursday as a weak upper level
shortwave moving across the Pacific NW and northern Rockies shifts
the upper high over the Great Basin east over the central Rockies
This allows upper level flow to veer to more of a north and
northeast direction Thursday and Friday and east direction come the
weekend. This change in upper level flow will allow higher PWATS of
around 0.75 inches to move into central and western NM increasing
diurnal shower and storm chances for that part of the state. Drier
midlevel air moves over eastern NM helping to lower storm chances
there. Thus, the chances for burn scar flash flooding lowers for the
HPCC burn scar and burn scars in and around Ruidoso. However, it
only takes one slow moving storm to cause problems!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Drier and hotter air will feed into much of northern and central
New Mexico as breezy to windy conditions develop this afternoon.
Gusts of 20 to 35 kt will possible over many locations. Hot
temperatures will lead to high density altitude readings which
will produce poor aircraft performance for many. In the
northeastern quadrant of New Mexico, it`s a different story, as a
moist cold front will be backing into the area. Most of the low
clouds associated with this initial arrival are lifting above MVFR
levels (3000 ft AGL), but widespread low clouds (MVFR to IFR, or
500ft to 1000ft ceilings) will return over much of the eastern
half of the state tonight. In addition, showers and thunderstorms
will develop late this afternoon on the east slopes of the Sangre
de Cristos, gradually moving into portions of east central and
northeastern New Mexico tonight. The previously mentioned front
will accelerate southwestward tonight, spilling through gaps and
canyons within the central mountain chain and heading toward the
Continental Divide. As this happens, gusty winds of 40 to 50 kt
will be possible near KABQ between 08/0500 and 08/1400UTC,
necessitating an Airport Weather Warning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon and
early evening across the Northwest Plateau where 5 to 10 hours of
single digit RH, gusty northwest winds and high Haines indices are
expected. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag
Warning. Elevated to near-critical conditions are expected elsewhere
across central and western NM.  Tonight, a backdoor cold front will
race south and west across the plains and through the gaps of the
central mountain chain. Strong gap winds are expected in the Rio
Grande Valley tonight. The front will replenish moisture across the
area, setting the stage for showers and thunderstorms throughout the
work week. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the most active days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  95  56  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  87  45  83  46 /   0   0  30  20
Cuba............................  89  52  81  51 /   0   0  20  30
Gallup..........................  94  45  89  51 /   0   0   0   5
El Morro........................  88  50  81  54 /   0   0   5  20
Grants..........................  93  50  83  52 /   0   0  10  20
Quemado.........................  90  54  85  55 /   0   0  10  20
Magdalena.......................  92  59  80  58 /   0   0  10  30
Datil...........................  89  55  80  54 /   0   0  10  20
Reserve.........................  95  54  92  52 /   0   0  10  20
Glenwood........................  98  64  98  65 /   5   5  10  20
Chama...........................  81  44  75  44 /   5   5  50  40
Los Alamos......................  86  57  74  56 /   0  10  50  30
Pecos...........................  88  54  72  51 /   0  20  60  30
Cerro/Questa....................  82  42  73  43 /   5  30  50  40
Red River.......................  72  42  62  42 /  20  40  60  40
Angel Fire......................  77  41  66  38 /  20  40  70  30
Taos............................  87  50  77  46 /   5  20  50  40
Mora............................  83  49  68  47 /  10  40  70  30
Espanola........................  93  56  82  54 /   0  20  30  30
Santa Fe........................  89  55  76  54 /   0  20  60  40
Santa Fe Airport................  92  56  79  55 /   0  20  40  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  95  64  80  61 /   0  10  30  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  97  66  82  61 /   0   5  20  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  98  64  84  61 /   0   5  10  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  97  64  83  60 /   0   5  20  20
Belen...........................  99  62  86  58 /   0   0  10  20
Bernalillo......................  96  64  83  60 /   0   5  20  20
Bosque Farms....................  98  61  85  57 /   0   5  10  20
Corrales........................  97  63  83  58 /   0   5  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  99  61  85  57 /   0   5  10  20
Placitas........................  94  62  79  60 /   0   5  30  20
Rio Rancho......................  96  63  83  60 /   0   5  20  20
Socorro......................... 101  67  89  62 /   0   0  10  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  89  56  74  54 /   0  10  40  20
Tijeras.........................  91  58  76  56 /   0  10  30  20
Edgewood........................  90  57  74  55 /   0  10  40  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  92  57  75  52 /   0  10  30  20
Clines Corners..................  88  53  70  51 /   0  20  20  20
Mountainair.....................  91  56  75  54 /   0  10  20  20
Gran Quivira....................  91  56  77  54 /   0  10  20  20
Carrizozo.......................  96  62  80  60 /   0   5  20  30
Ruidoso.........................  89  56  69  53 /   0   5  40  30
Capulin.........................  80  50  70  50 /  20  60  30  10
Raton...........................  86  53  75  51 /  30  60  30  20
Springer........................  90  55  76  52 /  20  50  40  20
Las Vegas.......................  85  53  69  51 /  10  40  50  30
Clayton.........................  84  56  76  56 /  10  50  20  10
Roy.............................  87  56  73  56 /  20  50  20  20
Conchas.........................  95  62  78  59 /   5  50  20  30
Santa Rosa......................  94  60  74  58 /   0  30  30  30
Tucumcari.......................  94  60  77  58 /   0  60  30  20
Clovis..........................  98  62  75  59 /   0  30  60  40
Portales........................  99  62  75  59 /   0  30  60  30
Fort Sumner.....................  98  64  75  60 /   0  20  40  30
Roswell......................... 106  68  77  66 /   0   5  50  30
Picacho.........................  97  62  75  59 /   0   5  50  30
Elk.............................  94  58  74  56 /   0   5  50  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101.

High Wind Watch from 11 PM MDT this evening through Monday
morning for NMZ219.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...52