718
FXUS65 KABQ 072144 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
344 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

A moist backdoor cold front will trigger strong to severe
thunderstorms over northeast and east central areas tonight. The
front will push through gaps in the central mountain chain with a
gusty east wind below canyons opening into the central valley
commencing around midnight tonight, then continuing through
Monday. The strongest gusts may reach up to 55 mph below Tijeras
Canyon in Albuquerque. Much cooler temperatures area forecast
across northern, central, and eastern areas Monday. Greater
thunderstorm coverage is forecast mainly east of the continental
divide Monday through Wednesday, then from the east slopes of the
central mountain chain westward Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

High pressure aloft remains over CA while an upper level trough
continues to carve out over the northern Great Plains this
afternoon. This has kept northwesterly flow aloft over NM with very
dry air having invaded a large majority of the forecast area as seen
by plummeting dewpoints in the teens, 20s and 30s and falling
PWATs. The exception is in northeastern and east central NM where a
moist backdoor front associated with the northern Great Plains
trough has infiltrated. The front is bumping up against the Sangre
de Cristos and convective initiation is getting underway amid the
moist upslope flow. Lots of directional wind shear is in place with
1000-1500 J/Kg of MLCAPE per the latest RAP analysis, so strong to
perhaps severe cells will likely carry on into at least the evening,
if not the early morning hours.

The CAMs keep activity focused over the northeastern quadrant of the
state, not really overtaking much of the TX/OK panhandle until after
midnight. Given recent high resolution and CAMs often delayed
representation of CI, this could be too late of a display of storms
with cells potentially expanding farther south of I-40 by the
midnight to early morning hours, so POPs were expanded a bit into
east central zones. Synoptic high pressure would already be building
over eastern NM and west TX, and how the convection fares could
potentially intensify this if widespread convection breaks out over
west TX a few hours earlier (evening) than modeled. This would
hasten and strengthen the gap/canyon wind, but models and MOS
guidance are not on board with this scenario. This makes it tricky
with the High Wind Watch for the ABQ metro, but for now have opted
to just convert it to a Wind Advisory.

As we get closer to dawn and into the late morning eastern zones
should begin to stabilize more, transitioning any precip from a
convective mode to more of a stratiform one. This could yield some
light rain or even drizzle in some east central to southeastern
zones into late Monday morning with the stable conditions limiting,
but likely not fully eliminating thunder opportunities even into the
afternoon. This will put the focus for convective initiation over
the northern mountains early Monday afternoon, and while CAMs are
not overly enthused, the Continental Divide could be another
initiation point as moist easterly upslope flow would be favorable
on the east faces. With the northern plains trough moving farther
east and the upper high setting up over southern CA, the flow aloft
would remain out of the north northeast with lots of directional
shear to make opportunities for severe storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

A moist southeasterly return flow at the surface will enable
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop both
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons with the greatest coverage of
cells along the central mountain chain and over the southwest
mountains. With a mid-level high pressure system centered over the
Great Basin, storms will generally move from north to south over
the forecast area both days. Perturbations in the northerly flow
aloft will ride over an axis of higher instability and favorable
bulk shear for at least a few strong-to-severe thunderstorms east
of the central mountain chain both days. Temperatures will trend
warmer both days while remaining a few to several degrees below
1991-2020 averages across the east.

Surface winds are currently projected to veer more out of the
south on Thursday and Friday causing moisture to trend lower over
eastern areas and higher over western areas each day. This will
result in a downtick in thunderstorm coverage from the central
mountain chain eastward, and shift the focus for convection more
over western areas. High temperatures will mostly continue
warming in the east as well, with readings roughly around 30-year
averages areawide by Friday. The upper high is forecast to migrate
westward over UT, shifting the storm motion from northwest to
southeast Thursday and moreso Friday.

The upper high is forecast to recenter over CO by Saturday causing
NM storms to move a bit more toward the west. However, there will
could be a downtick in storm coverage and rainfall intensity on
Saturday as drier air and an area of subsidence move over
southeast and central parts of the forecast area ahead of an
easterly wave tracking northwestward over northern Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Drier and hotter air will feed into much of northern and central
New Mexico as breezy to windy conditions develop this afternoon.
Gusts of 20 to 35 kt will possible over many locations. Hot
temperatures will lead to high density altitude readings which
will produce poor aircraft performance for many. In the
northeastern quadrant of New Mexico, it`s a different story, as a
moist cold front will be backing into the area. Most of the low
clouds associated with this initial arrival are lifting above MVFR
levels (3000 ft AGL), but widespread low clouds (MVFR to IFR, or
500ft to 1000ft ceilings) will return over much of the eastern
half of the state tonight. In addition, showers and thunderstorms
will develop late this afternoon on the east slopes of the Sangre
de Cristos, gradually moving into portions of east central and
northeastern New Mexico tonight. The previously mentioned front
will accelerate southwestward tonight, spilling through gaps and
canyons within the central mountain chain and heading toward the
Continental Divide. As this happens, gusty winds of 40 to 50 kt
will be possible near KABQ between 08/0500 and 08/1400UTC,
necessitating an Airport Weather Warning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are starting to get underway over
northwestern NM this afternoon as unseasonably strong west northwest
winds continue to draw hotter and drier air into the state. Much of
the remaining areas of western and central NM are also seeing dry
and hot conditions, but the winds are not quite as strong. In
northeastern and east central NM, a moist backdoor cold front is
currently invading from the northeast, bringing gusty and shifting
winds, but the arrival of higher humidity is eliminating concerns
for critical fire weather behind it. Storms will continue building
and developing over northeastern and some east central portions of
NM this evening and perhaps even after midnight. While this is
occurring the front will accelerate westward into the Rio Grande
valley and toward the Continental Divide. This could produce strong
canyon winds with gusts of 35 to 55 mph immediately downwind of
vulnerable gaps and canyons tonight. The front will increase
moisture and lead to a more active shower and thunderstorm pattern
into Monday and the rest of the week (outside of the far
northwestern and west central zones). This wetter and generally more
tranquil pattern (from a wind standpoint) will keep fire weather
concerns at bay while offering scattered footprints of soaking
rainfall.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  57  91  60  92 /   0   5   5   0
Dulce...........................  44  83  46  87 /   0  40  30  30
Cuba............................  51  81  50  85 /   0  40  30  30
Gallup..........................  49  88  51  90 /   0   0   5  10
El Morro........................  46  83  50  85 /   0  20  20  30
Grants..........................  52  84  52  87 /   0  20  20  30
Quemado.........................  52  87  53  88 /   0   5  20  50
Magdalena.......................  58  81  57  85 /   0  20  20  50
Datil...........................  54  82  53  84 /   0  20  20  60
Reserve.........................  53  93  51  92 /   0  10  20  60
Glenwood........................  65  98  62  95 /   5  20  20  70
Chama...........................  44  75  44  79 /  10  70  40  50
Los Alamos......................  57  74  55  79 /  10  70  30  50
Pecos...........................  54  72  51  80 /  30  60  30  70
Cerro/Questa....................  39  73  42  78 /  30  80  40  70
Red River.......................  42  63  42  70 /  40  80  40  80
Angel Fire......................  38  66  38  72 /  40  80  30  70
Taos............................  49  76  47  81 /  30  70  30  50
Mora............................  49  67  46  76 /  40  70  40  70
Espanola........................  55  82  54  87 /  10  60  30  30
Santa Fe........................  58  77  55  81 /  20  60  40  60
Santa Fe Airport................  56  80  53  84 /  10  50  30  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  63  80  61  89 /  10  30  20  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  65  83  63  90 /   0  20  20  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  59  85  55  93 /   0  20  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  64  84  61  91 /   0  20  20  20
Belen...........................  60  86  58  92 /   0  20  20  30
Bernalillo......................  63  84  59  92 /   0  30  20  30
Bosque Farms....................  58  85  54  92 /   0  20  20  20
Corrales........................  63  84  58  93 /   0  30  20  30
Los Lunas.......................  60  85  56  92 /   0  20  20  20
Placitas........................  61  80  59  87 /   5  30  20  40
Rio Rancho......................  64  83  60  91 /   0  30  20  20
Socorro.........................  65  89  63  93 /   0  20  20  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  56  73  54  83 /  10  30  20  40
Tijeras.........................  58  75  56  85 /  10  30  20  40
Edgewood........................  55  73  54  85 /  10  30  20  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  74  51  85 /  10  30  20  40
Clines Corners..................  52  69  51  80 /  20  40  20  50
Mountainair.....................  55  74  53  84 /  20  30  20  50
Gran Quivira....................  55  76  53  84 /   5  30  20  60
Carrizozo.......................  62  80  60  87 /   0  40  20  60
Ruidoso.........................  53  71  51  78 /   5  60  40  70
Capulin.........................  49  69  48  76 /  70  50  10  40
Raton...........................  52  74  51  80 /  70  60  20  40
Springer........................  56  75  52  82 /  70  60  20  50
Las Vegas.......................  53  68  50  76 /  50  60  30  60
Clayton.........................  57  75  56  83 /  70  40  10  20
Roy.............................  57  72  55  80 /  60  50  20  40
Conchas.........................  61  76  59  87 /  60  50  30  20
Santa Rosa......................  60  73  57  83 /  30  50  30  30
Tucumcari.......................  60  76  57  86 /  50  40  30  10
Clovis..........................  62  76  59  86 /  30  70  50  10
Portales........................  62  76  59  88 /  30  70  50  10
Fort Sumner.....................  63  75  60  87 /  20  50  30  10
Roswell.........................  70  81  65  91 /  10  60  40  20
Picacho.........................  62  76  59  85 /   5  60  40  50
Elk.............................  57  75  56  83 /   0  60  40  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101.

Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Monday for
NMZ219.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...52