820
FXUS65 KABQ 080846
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
246 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will persist across eastern NM through
the morning hours. Some storms may be severe with large hail and
damaging wind gusts. Storms should weaken shortly after daybreak,
but low clouds and areas of fog will be possible. Additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the
northern mountains before sliding southward. Daily rounds of
showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the week.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible, including over recent burn
scars. A few severe storms are possible as well, mainly east of
the Central Mountain Chain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

A backdoor front on the backside of an upper level trough over the
Upper Midwest has made it`s was through all of eastern NM as well as
through the gaps of the central mountain chain overnight. East winds
at the Sunport have gusted as high as 50 mph as of 1 AM MDT. Upslope
flow behind the backdoor front and elevated instability has also
resulted in the maintenance and further development of showers
and storms on the east slopes of the central mountain chain along
with low clouds across northeast NM. Low clouds will continue to
expand south and west through the rest of eastern NM to the east
slopes of the central mountain chain come daybreak. Convection will
exit into West Texas with upslope flow resulting in some light
stratiform showers along the east slopes of the central mountain
chain. Some patchy fog could also be possible through the late
morning across the central highlands including Clines Corners.
Meanwhile, the east canyon wind in Albuquerque gradually tapers off
during the morning commute, as the backdoor front and higher surface
moisture makes it all the way to the Continental Divide. Low
clouds across eastern NM gradually lift around midday, but
persist into the afternoon hours. This will result in a much cooler
day across eastern NM with temperatures as much as 25 degrees lower
than yesterday. A strong temperature gradient will exist on the
western edge of the low cloud deck along the central mountain chain.
This temperature gradient along with the higher moisture behind the
backdoor front will result in the development of showers and storms
across the north central mountains come the afternoon. Storms will
drift to the south due to upper level northerly flow on the eastern
flank of the high over California. These storms look to impact Santa
Fe and Taos during the evening hours. The ABQ Metro could be
impacted from as well but the east wind could prevent storms
coming off the Jemez Mountains from surviving. Outflows from the
storms over Sangre de Cristo Mountains along with a surface high
over eastern NM could increase the east wind in the ABQ Metro
slightly, but remain below Wind Advisory criteria during the evening
hours before tapering off completely around midnight. Clouds across
central and eastern NM will clear out from north to south as drier
midlevel air filters in from the north.

On Tuesday, the strong 597 dam upper high shifts a little east and
moves over Las Vegas, NV with northwest flow over NM. Clearer skies
during the first half of the day will result in better daytime
heating and higher instability across eastern NM with temperatures
10 to 15 degrees warmer than Monday. Storms will develop across the
central mountain chain midday drifting southeast to lower elevations
come the late afternoon to evening hours. The higher instability
will result in heavier rainfall rates. With CAMs showing a good
coverage of slow moving storms over Ruidoso and the burn scars
surrounding the village, have gone ahead and issued a Flash Flood
Watch for the Sacramento Mountains Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Burn scar flash flooding will also be possible for the HPCC burn
scar, but confidence was not high enough to include them in a Flash
Flood Watch yet. Will let subsequent shifts reassess and make the
call.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Storms will continue to roll off the high terrain Tuesday night
across the high plains. Some of these storms may be strong or
severe as they shift south-southeastward through the evening.

On Wednesday, the upper high will remain over Las Vegas, NV and
perturbations in northern flow will persist over NM. Instability
looks as good or higher than on Tuesday, thus storms are expected
to erupt during the afternoon. With PWATs near 1 inch near and
east of the Central Mountain Chain and relatively steep mid level
lapse rates, there is a good possibility of high rainfall rates/
heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding, with the greatest
concerns over the HPCC and Sacramento Mountain burn scars. It`s
likely that another Flood Watch will be needed. Without an influx
of moisture, there may not be as many storms on Thursday, but
scattered storms will still have plenty of instability to work
with. Storms will again favor the high terrain and a few storms
may be severe east of the Central Mountain Chain. The upper high
will shift eastward toward the Four Corners on Friday and over
Colorado over the weekend. With H5 height rises, this should
suppress storm coverage a little more. Nonetheless, isolated to
scattered storms will remain possible with recycled moisture.
Storms will tend to favor areas along and west of the Central
Mountain Chain as storms will tend to move toward the west around
the base of the upper high.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

MVFR and IFR ceilings have developed across far northeast NM,
including KCAO behind a backdoor cold front, and these ceilings
will continue to expands south and west across most of eastern NM
heading towards daybreak. Showers and storms will move across far
northeast and east central NM overnight before exiting into the
Texas panhandle before sunrise with light rain across the east
slopes of the central mountain chain including KLVS. The backdoor
front will continue moving towards the AZ border with gusty east
canyon winds peaking at around 45 kts overnight at KABQ. East
canyon winds will taper off below 35 kts around 15Z. IFR to MVFR
conditions will slowly break up across eastern NM Monday with the
east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains including KLVS
taking the longest. Afternoon showers and storms with brief MVFR
ceilings and visibilities will favor the north central mountains
with activity drifting south and possibly impacting KSAF during
the mid evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024

With higher moisture pushing in from the east behind a backdoor cold
front and lighter surface winds, critical fire weather conditions
are not expected through the forecast period. Wetting showers and
storms will favor areas along and east of the central mountain chain
through Wednesday, shifting to central and western areas beginning
Thursday and heading into the weekend as the upper high over the
western US drifts east to over the Colorado and Utah border. Storms
will be capable of producing locally gusty winds and heavy rainfall
with area burn scars at risk for flash flooding and debris flows.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  91  61  93  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  85  46  86  46 /  30  20  30  20
Cuba............................  81  50  85  53 /  20  30  20  30
Gallup..........................  89  51  91  51 /   0   0   5   5
El Morro........................  84  54  86  55 /   5  10  30  30
Grants..........................  86  52  88  52 /   5  20  20  20
Quemado.........................  87  55  89  56 /   0  10  40  40
Magdalena.......................  82  59  85  60 /  10  20  50  40
Datil...........................  82  55  85  56 /  10  20  50  40
Reserve.........................  94  52  93  53 /   5   5  60  40
Glenwood........................ 100  65  95  64 /   5  10  70  50
Chama...........................  77  45  79  46 /  50  40  50  30
Los Alamos......................  76  56  80  58 /  70  40  60  40
Pecos...........................  71  51  81  54 /  60  30  70  40
Cerro/Questa....................  74  42  77  43 /  60  40  80  40
Red River.......................  64  42  69  43 /  70  50  80  30
Angel Fire......................  66  38  72  39 /  80  50  80  30
Taos............................  79  46  81  48 /  70  40  60  40
Mora............................  66  47  76  49 /  70  30  70  40
Espanola........................  84  55  85  57 /  60  50  40  40
Santa Fe........................  76  55  82  57 /  60  40  60  50
Santa Fe Airport................  79  55  84  57 /  50  20  40  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  82  61  88  64 /  20  20  30  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  84  61  90  65 /  10  20  20  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  87  60  92  63 /  10  20  20  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  85  61  90  64 /  10  20  20  30
Belen...........................  87  58  92  61 /   5  20  20  30
Bernalillo......................  86  59  91  62 /  20  20  20  30
Bosque Farms....................  86  57  91  60 /   5  20  20  30
Corrales........................  86  58  91  62 /  20  20  20  30
Los Lunas.......................  86  57  92  61 /   5  20  20  30
Placitas........................  81  60  87  62 /  20  20  30  30
Rio Rancho......................  85  60  90  63 /  20  20  20  30
Socorro.........................  90  62  93  65 /   5  10  40  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  74  56  82  57 /  20  20  40  30
Tijeras.........................  77  57  85  59 /  20  20  40  40
Edgewood........................  73  55  85  56 /  20  20  40  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  73  50  86  53 /  20  20  30  40
Clines Corners..................  67  50  80  53 /  30  40  40  40
Mountainair.....................  74  53  84  55 /  30  20  40  40
Gran Quivira....................  75  53  85  55 /  20  20  50  40
Carrizozo.......................  83  59  86  62 /  30  20  50  40
Ruidoso.........................  70  53  77  55 /  50  20  60  40
Capulin.........................  69  50  78  52 /  60  10  40  10
Raton...........................  72  51  81  52 /  60  20  40  20
Springer........................  74  51  82  54 /  60  20  60  20
Las Vegas.......................  65  51  77  52 /  60  30  60  40
Clayton.........................  73  56  84  59 /  40   5  10  10
Roy.............................  71  55  80  57 /  50  30  40  30
Conchas.........................  74  60  88  62 /  50  20  20  40
Santa Rosa......................  70  58  86  60 /  50  30  30  40
Tucumcari.......................  75  59  88  61 /  60  20   5  30
Clovis..........................  73  60  86  63 /  60  30   5  20
Portales........................  74  60  87  62 /  60  20   5  20
Fort Sumner.....................  74  61  88  63 /  40  20  10  30
Roswell.........................  79  66  91  68 /  50  30  10  30
Picacho.........................  71  59  85  61 /  50  30  40  40
Elk.............................  73  56  81  58 /  60  30  50  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for NMZ219.

Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for
NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...71