123
FXUS65 KABQ 061746 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1146 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 304 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Thunderstorms today will favor the eastern and southern portion
of the forecast area. Rich moisture will be capable of localized
heavy rainfall, enhancing the risk of burn scar flash flooding. A
storm or two may become strong to severe. Active weather continues
on Sunday as much drier air and gusty winds bring critical fire
weather conditions to northwest New Mexico. A backdoor front will
bring the potential of strong east winds to Albuquerque Sunday
night. Rich moisture will return Monday, bringing the potential
for multiple rounds of afternoon thunderstorms and subsequent burn
scar flash flooding through the end of the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Storms across northeast and east central NM continue to regenerate
early this morning with abundant moisture in place and a weak upper
level disturbance grazing NE NM. These storms should continue
through the morning hours and may occasionally become strong or
briefly severe with hail and gusty winds given 500 J/Kg MLCAPE and
around 25kt of effective bulk shear.  Meanwhile, the east canyon
wind that pushed through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain
earlier tonight has waned, but did push low level moisture westward
through the Rio Grande Valley. Dry northwest flow will again mix out
this moisture in the RGV and likely points further east than
yesterday, setting up a dryline across portions of eastern NM. If
storms can develop on the dryline this afternoon, they should become
severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will again form over or near
the South Central Mountains in the vicinity of the burn scars. Most
CAMs suggest the heaviest precipitation will be east of the burn
scars, but given continue southeasterly upslope through at least mid
afternoon and uncertainty that the moisture will mix out thereafter,
went ahead with a Flood Watch for the area. That said, there is
considerably less certainty today as compared to yesterday that
flooding will occur.

All storms should diminish this evening and overnight convection is
not anticipated.

Stronger dry northwest flow on Sunday will allow moisture across
much of the area on Sunday, limiting convection significantly. Flood
watches will not be needed. Rather, dry and breezy to windy
conditions will return to central and western NM, while really hot
temperatures return elsewhere. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed
for the Roswell area as temperatures soar above 105 degrees. A
backdoor cold front will begin to push into NE NM during the
afternoon. If storms do form, this would be the favored area. Gusty
northeasterly winds are expected behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 304 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The backdoor front that raced down the eastern plains will surge
westward Sunday evening, pushing through the canyon gaps.
Incredible dry air will be in residence west of the central mts,
creating an impressive density gradient between the RGV and the
east central highlands of the central mts. This will set the
stage for strong canyon winds across the central valleys,
including ABQ, Sunday night into Monday morning where gusts could
reach 45 to 50 kts below Tijeras Canyon. Moisture will be
recharged behind the front across the eastern plains,
reinvigorating thunderstorm chances. High temperatures on Monday
will be markedly cooler, with most locales seeing reductions of
10F to 20F compared to Sunday`s readings. Moisture will be further
enhanced into Tuesday, bringing PWATs above normal most areas.
This will create the potential for an increased burn scar flash
flooding threat on Tuesday. The upper high will meander towards
the Four Corners on Wednesday, allowing moisture to be drawn up
its eastern periphery, continuing the daily rounds of showers and
thunderstorms along the central mts and eastward through the end
of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Dry conditions will prevent showers and thunderstorms from
developing over much of western and central New Mexico today, the
exception being in the Gila in southwestern areas of the state and
portions of the lower Rio Grande valley. Isolated to scattered
storms will be possible over the eastern highlands and plains of
New Mexico through the early evening with a few cells potentially
turning strong to severe with heavy downpours, hail, and gusty
downburst winds. Storms are expected to largely die off and vanish
after dark. Hot temperatures will be observed in many locations
with high density altitude readings that will suggest poor
aircraft performance for many. Stronger winds and fewer storms are
forecast for Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected today
across much of western NM as dry and breezy conditions develop.
Storms remain possible across eastern areas. On Sunday, stronger
northwest winds are expected, allowing much of the moisture across
the area to mix out. Critical fire weather conditions are expected
across the Northwest Plateau and a Fire Weather Watch is now in
effect. The recent stretch of single digit RH the last few days will
have allowed the fine fuels to dry out and more than 6 hours of
single digit RH is expected again today and Sunday. A backdoor cold
front will surge south and west Sunday afternoon and Sunday night,
which will bring a strong gap wind to the Rio Grande Valley and
replenish moisture across all areas. Thus, an active shower and
thunderstorm period is on tap for much of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  94  53  96  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  86  45  87  45 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  88  50  89  52 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  92  44  95  50 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  87  51  88  54 /   0   0   0   5
Grants..........................  90  44  93  52 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  88  51  91  55 /   0   0   5   5
Magdalena.......................  88  59  93  59 /  30   5   5   5
Datil...........................  87  53  89  55 /   5   0   5   5
Reserve.........................  93  52  96  55 /  10   0  10   5
Glenwood........................  96  62  99  66 /  20   5  10  10
Chama...........................  80  44  82  45 /   0   0   5   5
Los Alamos......................  83  61  86  57 /  10   0   5   5
Pecos...........................  84  54  88  53 /  20   0  10  20
Cerro/Questa....................  80  46  82  43 /  10   0  20  30
Red River.......................  72  41  72  43 /  10   5  30  30
Angel Fire......................  76  34  77  41 /  10   5  20  30
Taos............................  85  44  87  50 /   5   0  10  20
Mora............................  81  49  83  49 /  10   0  20  20
Espanola........................  90  56  93  56 /   5   0   0  10
Santa Fe........................  85  55  88  57 /  10   0   5  20
Santa Fe Airport................  88  52  92  57 /  10   0   0  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  91  63  94  63 /  10   0   0   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  94  64  97  64 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  96  60  99  63 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  94  62  97  63 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  96  60  99  61 /   5   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  94  61  97  63 /   5   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  95  58  98  60 /   5   0   0   0
Corrales........................  95  60  98  62 /   5   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  96  59  99  61 /   5   0   0   0
Placitas........................  90  61  93  62 /  10   0   0   5
Rio Rancho......................  94  63  96  63 /   5   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  97  66 102  65 /  20  10   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  85  59  88  57 /  10   0   0   5
Tijeras.........................  88  60  91  59 /  10   0   0   5
Edgewood........................  87  58  91  57 /  10   0   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  89  51  92  54 /  20   0   0  10
Clines Corners..................  83  55  88  53 /  20   0   5  10
Mountainair.....................  88  58  91  56 /  20   0   0   5
Gran Quivira....................  88  57  91  56 /  20   5   5  10
Carrizozo.......................  89  66  96  63 /  40  10   0   5
Ruidoso.........................  81  60  88  56 /  60  10  10  10
Capulin.........................  83  53  80  51 /  20  20  30  40
Raton...........................  86  53  84  53 /  20  10  20  40
Springer........................  88  53  89  55 /  20  10  20  30
Las Vegas.......................  82  53  85  53 /  20   0  10  20
Clayton.........................  87  60  82  57 /  20  20  10  30
Roy.............................  84  58  85  57 /  20  10  10  30
Conchas.........................  91  63  94  61 /  20   5   5  30
Santa Rosa......................  88  63  93  60 /  20   5   5  20
Tucumcari.......................  90  65  93  61 /  20  10   0  30
Clovis..........................  89  65  96  63 /  30  20   5  20
Portales........................  90  64  98  63 /  30  20   0  20
Fort Sumner.....................  89  65  98  64 /  30  10   0  20
Roswell.........................  95  68 106  69 /  20  10   0  10
Picacho.........................  87  65  97  61 /  70  10   0  10
Elk.............................  85  62  94  58 /  70  10   5  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for NMZ101.

Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...52