Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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676 FXUS65 KABQ 070811 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 211 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 210 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 A dry and hot Sunday is expected for most. The one exception will be across northeast areas where storms look to develop late in the day behind a backdoor cold front. The backdoor front surges through the gaps of the central mountain chain around midnight Monday bringing a strong east canyon wind to the Albuquerque Metro along with showers and storms across eastern areas early Monday morning. Much cooler on Monday, especially across eastern areas behind the backdoor front. Diurnal storms will favor the central mountain chain Monday, and along and east of the central mountain chain through mid week. Diurnal showers and storms shift west to central and western areas as the monsoon high moves over the central Rockies. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 210 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Finally, a quiet night across the Land of Enchantment, but this reprieve may be short-lived. Daytime hours today will remain quiet, warm, dry and breezy with northwest flow aloft. Exceptionally low humidity values are expected for up to 10 hours across much of central and western NM today. Additionally, temperatures are expected to top 105 degrees around the Roswell area, and a Heat Advisory remains in effect. A backdoor front that is currently across southeast CO will push into northeast NM this morning, though some breezy conditions will occur behind it, the main show will be late this afternoon through the overnight period. The front will continue to press southward across the plains this evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeast NM behind it. Ample instability and 30-40kt of 0-6km bulk shear will allow for some storms to become severe. Storms will continue to shift southward across the plains overnight, but the severe threat should end by midnight. Thereafter, precipitation should become showery with a few embedded thunderstorms. With PWATs also rising behind the front, some heavy rainfall is also possible, but fortunately, it looks like this will largely stay east of the HPCC burn scar. The front will push westward through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain around the midnight hour, perhaps slightly before. Model guidance has backed off on peak wind speeds in the ABQ metro area, so have kept the High Wind Watch intact and will let the day shift take another look and decide between a High Wind Warning and a high-end Wind Advisory. Regardless, it will be quite windy given both the strong pressure and density gradients. The strongest winds are expected below Tijeras Canyon but windy conditions are expected at all gaps, including Glorieta Pass, Abo Pass and near Carrizozo. As the front continues to march westward Monday morning, moisture will improve across the area. Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely continue across east central and southeast NM through Monday, keeping temperatures quite cool across all of eastern NM. This will put into question how unstable it will become through the afternoon. Models indicate perhaps the strongest storms in the afternoon will be across the northern mountains, which will track southward, perhaps reaching the ABQ Metro. But confidence on storm coverage and intensity elsewhere is low as it may be too stable. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 210 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Temperatures moderate and heat back up areawide Tuesday as the backdoor front washes out. Temperatures will be near average across western and central NM and around 5 to 10 degrees below average across. PWATs will be below 0.5 inches across northwest and far west central NM, around 0.5 to 0.75 inches across central NM and near an inch across the eastern plains. Showers and storms will develop over the central mountain chain and Gila Mountains midday moving southeast into the lower elevations come the late afternoon and evening hours due to the upper level northwest flow in between a strong 596 dam high over the Great Basin and the remnants of Beryl over the central U.S. Burn scar flash flooding will be elevated for the HPCC burn scar and the burn scars around Ruidoso. A few storms could become strong to severe across the northeast plains due to the directional shear from the upper level NW flow. More of the same is expected Wednesday with slightly hotter temperatures. There could be an uptick in showers and storm coverage along and east of the central mountain chain due to a weak shortwave diving southeast across the Great Plains on the backside of Beryl`s remnant circulation over the Great Lakes. Subtle changes are expected beginning Thursday as a weak upper level shortwave moving across the Pacific NW and northern Rockies shifts the upper high over the Great Basin east over the central Rockies This allows upper level flow to veer to more of a north and northeast direction Thursday and Friday and east direction come the weekend. This change in upper level flow will allow higher PWATS of around 0.75 inches to move into central and western NM increasing diurnal shower and storm chances for that part of the state. Drier midlevel air moves over eastern NM helping to lower storm chances there. Thus, the chances for burn scar flash flooding lowers for the HPCC burn scar and burn scars in and around Ruidoso. However, it only takes one slow moving storm to cause problems! && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1119 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Much quieter tonight as dry air has overtaken much of the area. A strong backdoor cold front will move into northeast NM Sunday morning. Strong north to northeast winds are expected behind it with gusts near 30kt possible. This front will race south and westward Sunday night with showers and thunderstorms possible behind it across northeast NM during the evening and overnight. Some storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds during the evening. The front will push through the gaps of the central mountain chain near or just before 06Z Mon. Gusts up to 50kt will be possible at KABQ shortly after 06Z while gusts up to 35kt will be possible at KSAF. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 210 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon and early evening across the Northwest Plateau where 5 to 10 hours of single digit RH, gusty northwest winds and high Haines indices are expected. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. Elevated to near-critical conditions are expected elsewhere across central and western NM. Tonight, a backdoor cold front will race south and west across the plains and through the gaps of the central mountain chain. Strong gap winds are expected in the Rio Grande Valley tonight. The front will replenish moisture across the area, setting the stage for showers and thunderstorms throughout the work week. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the most active days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 95 56 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 87 45 83 46 / 0 0 30 20 Cuba............................ 89 52 81 51 / 0 0 20 30 Gallup.......................... 94 45 89 51 / 0 0 0 5 El Morro........................ 88 50 81 54 / 0 0 5 20 Grants.......................... 93 50 83 52 / 0 0 10 20 Quemado......................... 90 54 85 55 / 0 0 10 20 Magdalena....................... 92 59 80 58 / 0 0 10 30 Datil........................... 89 55 80 54 / 0 0 10 20 Reserve......................... 95 54 92 52 / 0 0 10 20 Glenwood........................ 98 64 98 65 / 5 5 10 20 Chama........................... 81 44 75 44 / 5 5 50 40 Los Alamos...................... 86 57 74 56 / 0 10 50 30 Pecos........................... 88 54 72 51 / 0 20 60 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 82 42 73 43 / 5 30 50 40 Red River....................... 72 42 62 42 / 20 40 60 40 Angel Fire...................... 77 41 66 38 / 20 40 70 30 Taos............................ 87 50 77 46 / 5 20 50 40 Mora............................ 83 49 68 47 / 10 40 70 30 Espanola........................ 93 56 82 54 / 0 20 30 30 Santa Fe........................ 89 55 76 54 / 0 20 60 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 92 56 79 55 / 0 20 40 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 95 64 80 61 / 0 10 30 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 97 66 82 61 / 0 5 20 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 98 64 84 61 / 0 5 10 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 97 64 83 60 / 0 5 20 20 Belen........................... 99 62 86 58 / 0 0 10 20 Bernalillo...................... 96 64 83 60 / 0 5 20 20 Bosque Farms.................... 98 61 85 57 / 0 5 10 20 Corrales........................ 97 63 83 58 / 0 5 20 20 Los Lunas....................... 99 61 85 57 / 0 5 10 20 Placitas........................ 94 62 79 60 / 0 5 30 20 Rio Rancho...................... 96 63 83 60 / 0 5 20 20 Socorro......................... 101 67 89 62 / 0 0 10 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 89 56 74 54 / 0 10 40 20 Tijeras......................... 91 58 76 56 / 0 10 30 20 Edgewood........................ 90 57 74 55 / 0 10 40 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 92 57 75 52 / 0 10 30 20 Clines Corners.................. 88 53 70 51 / 0 20 20 20 Mountainair..................... 91 56 75 54 / 0 10 20 20 Gran Quivira.................... 91 56 77 54 / 0 10 20 20 Carrizozo....................... 96 62 80 60 / 0 5 20 30 Ruidoso......................... 89 56 69 53 / 0 5 40 30 Capulin......................... 80 50 70 50 / 20 60 30 10 Raton........................... 86 53 75 51 / 30 60 30 20 Springer........................ 90 55 76 52 / 20 50 40 20 Las Vegas....................... 85 53 69 51 / 10 40 50 30 Clayton......................... 84 56 76 56 / 10 50 20 10 Roy............................. 87 56 73 56 / 20 50 20 20 Conchas......................... 95 62 78 59 / 5 50 20 30 Santa Rosa...................... 94 60 74 58 / 0 30 30 30 Tucumcari....................... 94 60 77 58 / 0 60 30 20 Clovis.......................... 98 62 75 59 / 0 30 60 40 Portales........................ 99 62 75 59 / 0 30 60 30 Fort Sumner..................... 98 64 75 60 / 0 20 40 30 Roswell......................... 106 68 77 66 / 0 5 50 30 Picacho......................... 97 62 75 59 / 0 5 50 30 Elk............................. 94 58 74 56 / 0 5 50 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101. High Wind Watch from this evening through Monday morning for NMZ219. Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...34