Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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236 FXUS65 KABQ 011721 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1121 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1238 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 More heavy rainfall remains to track to develop once again over the northwest two thirds of the state today. Shower and thunderstorms will be capable of producing torrential rainfall with localized flash flooding likely for all areas except the east central and southeast plains. Drier air is forecast to move into far northern NM Tuesday, focusing the heavy rainfall potential to central areas over the southwest and west central mountains east into the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley. On Wednesday, dry air moves into the northwest quarter, resulting in a band of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms that stretch from southwest to northeast across the state. This same dry air from the northwest is forecast to continue to progress to the southeast on the 4th of July, resulting in a dry day areawide. Gulf moisture, however, returns behind a backdoor front moving into eastern NM Thursday night and Friday. Heavy rain potential returns to much of eastern NM and the Ruidoso area burn scars Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1238 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 A batch of showers with embedded storms in northern NM is all that remains from Sunday`s round of convection. Showers will likely linger across the northwest corner of the state through the morning, with low chances of rain elsewhere. Currently New Mexico is sandwiched in between a strong H5 ~588dm High over eastern TX and a trough over The Great Basin. The trough axis can be easily picked out on water vapor imagery over N Arizona since it separates the anomalously moist airmass over the desert southwest from a very dry spring-like airmass in NV and UT. The other feature to watch today is a subtle perturbation over northern Mexico that is caught in the southwest flow around the aformentioned High pressure. The trough axis approaching NM from the west will provide the necessary lift to get storms off the ground this afternoon and the shortwave will only expand the coverage of convection as it moves into southern AZ/NM this afternoon. Due to this combination of factors, a Flash Flood Watch was hoisted for much of central and northern NM, including all of the recent burn scars. Almost all hi-res models show a cell developing along the east slopes of the Sacramento mountains around noon today, just to the east of the complex of burn scars near Ruidoso. Steering flow will move these storms to the east off the mountains, but there is the potential for backbuilding storms into the burn areas. The threat for flash flooding in that area will be greatest in the early afternoon period, but storms later in the day cannot be ruled out either. Storms today will move relatively quickly (10-20 kts), but the potential for training storms and repeated rounds of convection will enhance the risk of flash flooding for areas outside of burn scars as well, including along the Rio Grande Valley. Model guidance suggests the potential for another daily record PWAT at ABQ this morning so rainfall will be efficient and storms will be able to generate rainfall rates of 1"/hour with relative ease. The aformentioned wave isn`t progged to move into the Rio Grande Valley until the evening so the most likely time for flooding in Albuquerque and Santa Fe won`t be until the mid to late evening hours. The NBM suggests precipitation will wind down quickly after Midnight, but the embedded wave and forcing from the upper-level trough will likely help at least showers persist well into the overnight hours, particularly in northern and eastern areas. However, precipitation will become more stratiform in nature so the flash flood risk will drop off quickly in the early morning hours. Drier air enters from the north Tuesday, dropping precipitation chances in the northern mtns near the CO border and across the northwest. Deep moisture will still be entrenched over the southern portion of the forecast area, helping fuel another round of widespread showers and storms. Storms will move relatively quickly once again, but will impact many of the same areas that see heavy rainfall today. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1238 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Dry westerly flow aloft makes a return to northern NM Tuesday night and Wednesday. Despite the dry air, plenty of low level moisture remains over central and eastern portions of the state for another active day of afternoon thunderstorms in an area from the lower Gila northeast to the Sangre de Cristo mountains, northeast highlands including the HPCC scar as well as the Ruidoso area burn scars. Storm motions will be to the east around 20 mph west of the central mountain chain and northeast 10-20 mph east. PWAT values remain above 1" southeast of a Catron to Union county line Wednesday afternoon so the heavy rain potential from training storms continues. Dry air is forecast to overtake the forecast area on the 4th of July. Enough residual low level moisture is possible for a brief shower or storms over the Sacramento mountains Thursday afternoon, favoring locations mainly south of Lincoln county. The dry air is rather short lived, however, with a backdoor cold front on track to push south into eastern NM Thursday night and Friday. Global models indicate a line of convection may develop behind the front in far eastern NM late Thursday night or Friday morning. Uncertainty in precipitation chances for eastern NM Thursday night into Friday morning remain on the higher end until Friday afternoon when daytime heating and stronger (~35 kt) bulk shear enter the equation. GFS continues to indicate that the heavy rain potential continues for the eastern half of NM Saturday. ECMWF forecast, however, keeps most of the stronger convection near the TX line with weaker showers and storms farther west toward the central mountain chain including the Ruidoso area. While all of this is occurring, descending motion from the increased convection in the eastern Pacific is combining with the longwave Asian-Pacific jet wave pattern to result in a stronger than average monsoon high over CA and NV Friday and Saturday. As this stronger than average monsoon high strengthens over NV early next week to near 600 dm @ 500 mb, a "reverse monsoon" pattern develops with backdoor fronts bringing in rich Gulf moisture to the state from the east and northeast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1021 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for in/near scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon and overnight. MVFR conditions are likely with storms, but short- lived IFR conditions are possible. Torrential downpours, gusts to 40-50mph, small hail and frequent lightning are all possible with storms today through the evening hours. Highest impact probabilities among our TAF sites are at KAEG/KABQ and KSAF late this afternoon through the evening hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1238 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for at least the next 7 days. Widespread to numerous showers and storms with wetting rainfall are expected each afternoon and evening through Wednesday with the heaviest precipitation expected in the high terrain of western NM. Some locations may see in excess of 3" of rainfall between now and Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall will create instances of flash flooding, particularly over recent burn scars and areas with saturated soils. Drier air enters from the north tomorrow, dropping precipitation chances and afternoon minimum humidity values. Thursday looks like the driest day of the week with only isolated storms in the south and afternoon humidity below 20% areawide. Precipitation chances trend up again late week as a backdoor front ushers in more moisture and gusty east winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 82 62 89 61 / 60 30 5 0 Dulce........................... 76 52 84 47 / 80 40 5 0 Cuba............................ 79 56 82 55 / 90 50 30 5 Gallup.......................... 80 56 86 54 / 70 40 20 5 El Morro........................ 76 57 80 56 / 80 40 50 20 Grants.......................... 80 56 83 55 / 80 50 60 10 Quemado......................... 80 58 81 57 / 80 60 70 20 Magdalena....................... 83 63 82 62 / 80 60 80 30 Datil........................... 81 59 79 59 / 80 50 90 30 Reserve......................... 86 58 87 56 / 70 50 80 30 Glenwood........................ 90 67 93 65 / 60 50 70 30 Chama........................... 72 49 78 47 / 80 50 20 5 Los Alamos...................... 78 60 78 61 / 90 70 40 10 Pecos........................... 81 57 83 58 / 70 60 40 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 75 49 79 46 / 80 60 30 10 Red River....................... 67 48 70 46 / 80 50 30 10 Angel Fire...................... 73 46 75 42 / 60 60 30 10 Taos............................ 80 54 83 52 / 70 60 20 10 Mora............................ 79 54 80 52 / 60 60 40 10 Espanola........................ 85 60 86 59 / 80 70 20 5 Santa Fe........................ 81 59 81 60 / 70 60 30 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 84 60 85 59 / 70 60 30 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 86 66 86 66 / 80 60 50 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 88 66 87 67 / 70 50 40 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 90 66 89 64 / 70 50 30 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 89 66 88 65 / 70 50 40 10 Belen........................... 91 64 89 63 / 70 50 50 20 Bernalillo...................... 88 65 88 65 / 70 50 30 10 Bosque Farms.................... 90 62 88 61 / 70 50 40 20 Corrales........................ 89 64 88 66 / 70 50 30 10 Los Lunas....................... 90 63 88 63 / 70 50 40 20 Placitas........................ 85 65 85 64 / 70 50 30 10 Rio Rancho...................... 88 66 87 66 / 70 50 30 10 Socorro......................... 94 68 91 68 / 70 60 60 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 81 61 81 62 / 80 50 40 10 Tijeras......................... 84 62 83 59 / 80 50 40 20 Edgewood........................ 84 61 84 57 / 70 40 40 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 86 58 86 56 / 70 50 40 20 Clines Corners.................. 81 57 81 58 / 70 50 40 20 Mountainair..................... 85 60 84 59 / 70 60 50 30 Gran Quivira.................... 87 60 86 60 / 60 60 70 30 Carrizozo....................... 89 67 91 67 / 40 50 60 40 Ruidoso......................... 82 60 84 62 / 50 30 70 40 Capulin......................... 83 58 83 56 / 50 40 40 30 Raton........................... 87 57 88 57 / 50 40 20 20 Springer........................ 89 60 90 58 / 50 50 20 10 Las Vegas....................... 81 58 82 57 / 50 50 40 20 Clayton......................... 92 66 91 64 / 20 30 20 30 Roy............................. 86 63 88 61 / 30 50 30 20 Conchas......................... 93 69 95 67 / 30 40 20 30 Santa Rosa...................... 89 66 90 65 / 40 50 30 30 Tucumcari....................... 96 69 96 68 / 20 30 10 30 Clovis.......................... 96 70 97 70 / 5 20 10 40 Portales........................ 96 70 98 70 / 5 10 5 30 Fort Sumner..................... 94 70 95 69 / 20 30 20 30 Roswell......................... 99 74 102 75 / 20 20 20 20 Picacho......................... 90 65 92 67 / 50 30 50 30 Elk............................. 88 63 90 63 / 40 20 50 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ203-204-207-210>226-229- 241. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...11