Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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138 FXUS65 KABQ 012329 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 529 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1251 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 An active 2024 North American Monsoon continues with rounds of storms through Wednesday and the potential for flash flooding, especially on and near area burn scars. Independence Day will be the hottest and driest of the forecast period, with isolated storms possible across southern portions of the area. A backdoor front will recharge moisture Friday and lead to an uptick in storm coverage going into the weekend, mainly along and east of the central mountain chain. Temperatures will rise late in the weekend and into early next week across western NM, under the influence of high pressure parked over the Desert Southwest. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1251 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 An anomalously high PWAT atmosphere persists over the area, with the 12Z KABQ upper air sounding showing 1.22" which is another calendar day record high. A round of daytime heating triggered convection is already underway and is forecast to expand in coverage and intensity going into the early evening hours. The CAMs have been consistency from this morning through mid day in showing convection initiating and staying east of the Sacramento burn scar complex and a round of storms impacting the Albuquerque and Santa Fe Metros between 4-8PM. The CAMs also show the HPCC burn scar being impacted by storms between 7-9PM this evening. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for much of central/western NM through 3AM, with no changes planned. The upper high will continue to back out of southern NM Tuesday, allowing the westerlies to penetrate further south into the state as an upper level trough/low ejects east out of the central Rockies. Greater west to east storm motion may lower the threat some for burn scar flooding Tuesday, but very little rain is needed to cause major problems now due to saturated grounds. A Flash Flood Watch for at least our problematic burn scars will need to be considered for Tuesday. Otherwise, Tuesday will be similar to today with another round of afternoon/evening storms forecast to impact the Albuquerque and Santa Fe Metros. Given the buoyant atmosphere, convection will be slower to diminish during the overnight hours compared to our normal loss of diurnal heating downturns. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1251 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Weak westerly flow will prevail Wednesday and drier air will infiltrate northwest NM from the Great Basin as an upper high builds east from CA across the Desert SW. Wednesday will still be active, but not as active as today and Tuesday due to a downtrend in PWATs. In terms of burn scar flood threat on Wednesday, the Sacramento Complex will be the highest threat area due to slower storm motion and higher PWATs across southern portions of the area. The downtrend in PWATs will continue through Independence Day as northwest flow spreads east over the area with the upper high over CA strengthening and expanding. Independence Day will definitely be the hottest and driest day of the forecast cycle, but an isolated storms across southern portions of the area can not be ruled out. Just as quickly as the area dries out, a backdoor front will race southwest across the eastern plains to the central mountain chain late Thursday into early Friday. This will recharge moisture and set the stage for daily rounds of storms across eastern NM with northwest flow aloft through the weekend. Meanwhile, the upper high centroid will move inland and be over CA/NV, keeping western NM dry and bringing above normal temperatures going into early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Scattered to numerous thunderstorms continue to trek eastward across western and central NM with more isolated activity over the east-central plains. The thunderstorm activity through central NM mainly along and just north of I-40 from KGNT to KSAF will continue to progress eastward toward KLVS over the next hour to two hours. Hi-res CAMs show activity clearing out of the KABQ area, but will leave a TEMPO for thunderstorms there and at KAEG to 02Z due to a panoply of outflow boundaries still present that could collide and produce a rogue new cell. Convective activity will steadily taper off through the evening to about midnight or just after. Tuesday will see another round of scattered to numerous thunderstorms threatening locally heavy rain, cloud-to- ground lightning, small hail and gusty winds focusing along a line from the NE to SW corners of the forecast area. These cells will track east through the late day and evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1251 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through at least the next seven days as an active North American Monsoon continues, bringing daily rounds of wetting storms and good to excellent humidity recovery. An elevated threat for burn scar flooding will exist through Wednesday, then trend down Independence Day before a backdoor front recharges moisture on Friday and brings a renewed threat for burn scar flooding going into the weekend. Increasing northwest flow aloft will dry-out western portions of the area from Independence Day onward through the weekend, brining back hot, dry and unstable conditons by late in the weekend and into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 63 89 61 93 / 30 10 5 5 Dulce........................... 53 84 46 87 / 50 20 5 5 Cuba............................ 56 82 55 86 / 50 20 10 20 Gallup.......................... 56 86 53 90 / 40 30 10 10 El Morro........................ 57 81 56 85 / 50 50 30 20 Grants.......................... 57 83 54 89 / 50 50 20 20 Quemado......................... 59 82 58 87 / 60 70 30 30 Magdalena....................... 62 82 63 84 / 70 70 40 50 Datil........................... 58 80 59 84 / 60 70 30 50 Reserve......................... 58 87 57 88 / 50 60 30 40 Glenwood........................ 67 93 69 91 / 40 50 40 40 Chama........................... 50 79 48 81 / 50 20 10 20 Los Alamos...................... 60 80 61 84 / 70 50 10 30 Pecos........................... 57 82 58 84 / 50 50 20 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 50 80 46 81 / 60 30 10 30 Red River....................... 48 72 45 73 / 60 40 20 40 Angel Fire...................... 48 75 43 77 / 40 30 10 30 Taos............................ 55 84 52 86 / 70 20 10 20 Mora............................ 55 81 53 82 / 50 40 10 40 Espanola........................ 61 86 59 90 / 70 20 10 20 Santa Fe........................ 60 82 61 84 / 70 50 20 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 85 59 88 / 70 40 10 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 86 67 89 / 70 50 30 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 88 66 91 / 70 40 20 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 65 90 66 92 / 70 40 20 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 65 87 66 91 / 70 40 20 30 Belen........................... 64 90 63 93 / 70 50 30 30 Bernalillo...................... 65 89 66 92 / 70 40 20 30 Bosque Farms.................... 62 90 63 92 / 70 40 20 30 Corrales........................ 63 89 66 91 / 70 40 20 30 Los Lunas....................... 62 90 64 93 / 70 50 20 30 Placitas........................ 64 86 66 89 / 70 40 20 30 Rio Rancho...................... 65 88 66 91 / 70 40 20 30 Socorro......................... 68 90 69 92 / 70 60 30 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 81 62 84 / 70 60 20 30 Tijeras......................... 62 84 62 86 / 70 50 20 30 Edgewood........................ 60 85 59 86 / 60 50 20 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 58 86 56 87 / 60 50 20 40 Clines Corners.................. 57 82 57 84 / 50 60 30 40 Mountainair..................... 60 84 60 85 / 70 60 30 40 Gran Quivira.................... 60 85 60 86 / 60 60 40 60 Carrizozo....................... 67 89 67 88 / 50 50 40 60 Ruidoso......................... 60 81 61 80 / 30 70 50 70 Capulin......................... 59 83 56 83 / 30 40 30 50 Raton........................... 58 88 57 87 / 30 30 20 40 Springer........................ 61 89 58 89 / 30 30 20 30 Las Vegas....................... 58 83 56 83 / 40 50 20 40 Clayton......................... 66 91 63 88 / 30 30 30 30 Roy............................. 63 87 61 86 / 40 40 30 40 Conchas......................... 68 96 66 94 / 40 30 30 30 Santa Rosa...................... 66 91 65 91 / 50 40 30 30 Tucumcari....................... 69 98 67 95 / 30 30 40 30 Clovis.......................... 69 96 69 95 / 10 30 50 40 Portales........................ 70 98 70 96 / 10 30 40 30 Fort Sumner..................... 70 95 69 94 / 30 30 40 30 Roswell......................... 74 102 75 100 / 20 30 30 40 Picacho......................... 66 91 67 90 / 30 50 30 70 Elk............................. 62 88 63 87 / 30 70 40 70 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 3 AM MDT Tuesday for NMZ203-204-206>208- 210>226-229-241. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...24