Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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675 FXUS65 KABQ 040527 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1127 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 325 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 A short-lived drying trend is resulting in a downtick in storm coverage today, with very little to no thunderstorm activity expected on Independence Day. A backdoor front will move southwest to the central mountain chain Thursday night and bring moisture back to fuel rounds of storms going into the weekend. The front will result in a gusty east canyon wind into the Rio Grande Valley Thursday night. Burn scar flooding is possible through the weekend due to the uptick in moisture and associated storms. A stronger backdoor front will bring moisture west to at least the Continental Divide late Sunday and set the stage for an active early to mid week period with daily rounds of storms and a threat for burn scar flooding. Far western NM will remain mostly dry and hot through the forecast period. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 325 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 The latest water vapor satellite imagery shows a very dry airmass overtaking much of western and northern NM as the Monsoon moisture plume lays over to the east. A notable downtick in storms so far today associated with the dry air moving in. At least some minor threat for burn scar flooding will persist into the early evening hours, but this is the lowest threat day in many days. Dry air will overtake the remainder of the forecast area tomorrow, except for the far eastern areas near the TX border and the far southern mountains where isolated storms are still possible. So, impacts to the Sacramento Complex can not be totally ruled-out for Independence Day, but very low probabilities of burn scar flooding. A backdoor front will progress west from the plains into the highlands late Thursday afternoon and then continue west Thursday night into the RGV, creating east canyon winds with gusts to between 35-45mph. The front will replenish moisture along/east of the central mountain chain and the NAM is modeling sufficient moisture advection and easterly upslope flow for forcing to produce a round of nocturnal convection that may bring flooding rains to the HPCC burn scar and Las Vegas area. Notably, the NAM is an outlier among the 12Z model solutions, but will be monitored for run-to-run consistency given the potential for flash flooding. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 325 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Western NM will be dry and relatively hot from Friday through Sunday under the influence of the expanding upper high along the west coast which will be moving toward the Desert SW. Different story from the central mountain chain eastward thanks to moisture from the backdoor front that moved in late Thursday. Daily rounds of daytime heating triggered convection are likely with the potential for flooding on the HPCC and Sacrament Complex burn scars. The NAM in particular is aggressive with the development Friday afternoon and bullish with the qpf near/over the Sacramento Complex which fits with moist easterly upslope flow and distance form the upper high circulation. Severe storms are also possible from the central mountain chain eastward from Friday through Sunday where the combination of bulk shear (0-6km) of 30-35kts and instability will exist. The best potential for severe storms will be Saturday due to warmer temperatures aiding greater surface- based instability. A stronger backdoor front is forecast to race southwest to at least the Continental Divide Sunday night, resulting in strong east canyon/gap winds into the RGV and Upper Tularosa Valley. The latest GFS MOS is showing 42kts at KABQ Sunday night. That is likely a touch high, but we`ll likely require a Wind Advisory for this one. Moisture coming in behind the backdoor from will set the stage for a very active early to mid week period with daily rounds of strong storms and a renewed threat for burn scar flooding. The upper high is forecast to expand across most of the Intermountain West from early to mid week and be centered over NV, bringing northern flow aloft over our area, which would favor southward storm motion from the mountain into the Santa Fe and Albuquerque Metros late day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Quiet conditions are expected overnight across northern and central NM. Much drier air will filter into the area on Independence Day, resulting few -SHRA/-TSRA. Storms that do develop will generally be southeast of KROW. Rather, breezy northwest winds with gusts near 25kt will be possible along and west of the Rio Grande Valley. A backdoor cold front will also push into northeast NM overnight into Thursday morning. Breezy north wind will also be possible behind it. As it pushes southward during the day Thursday, winds will veer around to the east behind it but will remain breezy at times. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 325 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 A drying and warming trend continues through Independence Day with a downtick in wetting storms today, which will trend down further tomorrow. A backdoor front will move west to the central mountain chain late tomorrow and recharge moisture for daily rounds of wetting storms from Friday through the weekend with the potential for burn scar flooding. However, western NM will remain dry and relatively hot under the expanding influence of an upper high along the west coast creeping slowly eastward. Increasing northwest flow aloft will mix down to the surface Sunday across northwest NM and result in a few hours of critical fire weather conditions across/near the northwest plateau. However, Farmington has had near 2 inches of rain over the past two weeks and many areas in northwest NM have had plenty of wetting rain, so fuels will likely not be receptive to fire growth. A stronger backdoor front will bring moisture west across the area Sunday night and set the stage for a more active period from early to mid next week with rounds of wetting storms and the potential for burn scar flooding. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 59 93 54 92 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 48 88 44 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 53 87 52 85 / 0 0 0 5 Gallup.......................... 54 92 47 91 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 55 88 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 56 90 48 89 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 57 89 53 89 / 0 0 0 5 Magdalena....................... 61 91 61 88 / 5 0 0 10 Datil........................... 56 88 56 87 / 0 0 0 10 Reserve......................... 55 94 52 94 / 10 0 0 10 Glenwood........................ 66 99 66 99 / 20 10 5 20 Chama........................... 48 83 44 81 / 0 0 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 60 89 60 82 / 5 0 5 10 Pecos........................... 57 88 55 79 / 10 5 10 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 46 84 44 80 / 5 5 10 20 Red River....................... 46 76 43 71 / 10 5 20 30 Angel Fire...................... 40 80 40 74 / 10 10 20 30 Taos............................ 49 89 50 83 / 0 0 10 10 Mora............................ 53 86 49 76 / 10 10 30 30 Espanola........................ 58 95 58 88 / 5 0 5 10 Santa Fe........................ 59 89 59 82 / 10 0 10 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 58 93 59 85 / 10 0 5 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 64 94 65 89 / 10 0 5 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 63 95 64 90 / 10 0 5 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 63 97 63 92 / 5 0 5 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 63 96 64 91 / 10 0 5 5 Belen........................... 61 98 60 93 / 0 0 5 5 Bernalillo...................... 63 97 64 91 / 10 0 5 10 Bosque Farms.................... 60 97 60 92 / 5 0 5 10 Corrales........................ 63 97 62 92 / 10 0 5 10 Los Lunas....................... 60 98 60 92 / 0 0 5 5 Placitas........................ 62 93 64 88 / 10 0 5 10 Rio Rancho...................... 63 96 64 91 / 10 0 5 10 Socorro......................... 65 99 66 95 / 10 0 0 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 59 89 58 83 / 10 0 10 20 Tijeras......................... 60 92 60 86 / 10 0 10 20 Edgewood........................ 57 92 58 84 / 20 0 10 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 93 55 85 / 20 0 10 20 Clines Corners.................. 56 89 54 78 / 20 0 20 20 Mountainair..................... 58 91 57 84 / 10 0 10 20 Gran Quivira.................... 58 92 56 84 / 20 0 10 20 Carrizozo....................... 66 94 65 87 / 20 5 10 30 Ruidoso......................... 63 86 57 76 / 30 20 20 60 Capulin......................... 56 79 53 76 / 30 10 30 30 Raton........................... 56 87 55 80 / 20 10 30 20 Springer........................ 58 90 56 81 / 20 10 40 20 Las Vegas....................... 58 87 52 75 / 20 10 50 20 Clayton......................... 62 84 57 80 / 30 5 30 20 Roy............................. 62 87 57 77 / 20 10 50 20 Conchas......................... 65 95 61 86 / 20 10 40 20 Santa Rosa...................... 65 95 61 83 / 20 10 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 66 95 61 85 / 20 5 40 20 Clovis.......................... 72 96 64 83 / 20 10 30 40 Portales........................ 73 97 64 85 / 20 10 30 30 Fort Sumner..................... 68 98 65 86 / 20 10 30 20 Roswell......................... 75 103 73 91 / 20 10 20 20 Picacho......................... 69 96 64 83 / 20 10 10 30 Elk............................. 64 92 60 80 / 20 20 20 50 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...34