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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
227 FXUS65 KVEF 030738 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1238 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS...An intense and long-duration heatwave will begin today across the Mojave Desert and build northward into the southern Great Basin through early next week. Numerous high temperature records will be challenged or broken. Meanwhile, dry conditions will persist with no sign of monsoonal moisture through early next week. && .SHORT TERM...through Friday night. Midnight satellite loop showed clear skies areawide. Surface obs showed light winds with spotty gusts over 20 mph, hot temperatures, and low humidity. No meaningful change to forecast thinking. It has been hot, but it will get even hotter starting today, as a major heat wave of unusual intensity and duration gets underway thanks to strong Pacific high pressure. Excessive Heat Warnings go into effect later this morning for the lower elevations of Inyo County, northwest San Bernardino County, southern Nye County, and western and central Clark County. Beginning late Thursday morning, the Warnings expand to cover all areas below 4000 feet (and some higher elevations) in our CWA. At some point, Advisories or maybe even Warnings will be needed for most or all of our higher elevation areas, but that will be in the long term period. It must be emphasized that today through Friday will only be the beginning of this fierce heat wave. Please stay safe. .LONG TERM...Saturday through next Tuesday. High confidence in widespread major and extreme Heat Risk impacts over the weekend into early next week. Over the weekend, the higher elevations will begin to feel the impacts of the heatwave, with Lee and Kyle Canyons climbing well into the 80s and lower 90s. Additional heat products may be needed closer to the weekend for these areas, Lincoln County, and the Arizona Strip. By early next week, little has changed with a broad ridge of high pressure settling over the southern Great Basin. This will ensure our hot temperatures continue, and Monday and Tuesday are the days with the highest NBM probabilities for all time record highs around the Las Vegas Valley. To reiterate, a dangerous and long lasting heat spell will persist into the foreseeable future. Extreme Heat Risk is expected for much of our lower elevations including Las Vegas and safety precautions are not just suggested, but urged, as this magnitude of heat is deadly. Our best chance to break the intense heat would be for a monsoonal moisture intrusion to creep in from the south, through the forecast orientation of the high pressure center suggests that is unlikely until at least midweek next week. Thereafter, numerous ensemble members begin to at least hint at the possibility of some low grade monsoonal moisture returning to the area and temperatures easing from their near-record levels by mid-month. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Expect winds to follow typical diurnal trends today, with light southwesterly winds through the early- morning, light northeasterly winds in the morning, then breezy southwesterly winds after sunset. The initial southwesterly push will be accompanied by occasional gusts between 15 and 20 kts, but frequency will decrease through the evening. No operationally significant cloud cover through the TAF period. Temperatures will increase above 100 degrees between 16Z and 06Z. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona, and southeastern California...Expect winds to follow typical diurnal trends through the morning and afternoon today across the region. Around sunset, southwesterly winds will pick up in the Las Vegas and Colorado River Valleys with occasional gusts between 15 and 20 kts and westerly gusts will pick up at KDAG between 20 and 25 kts. Gust frequency will decrease through the evening. No operationally significant cloud cover through the TAF period. Temperatures will increase to 110-120F late-week into the weekend. && .CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of the daily record. The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast). MAX WED, JUL 3 THU, JUL 4 FRI, JUL 5 SAT, JUL 6 Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 116(1937)* 115(1985)* 116(2007)* 115(2007)* Bishop 107(1984)* 107(2007)* 108(2007)* 105(2021)* Needles 119(2013)* 121(2007) 121(1989)* 120(1922)* Daggett 115(2001)* 117(1991) 118(2007) 115(2007)* Kingman 111(1967) 110(2007)* 109(2007)* 108(2017)* Desert Rock 113(2013) 112(1985) 112(2007)* 111(2007)* Death Valley 127(2013) 128(2013) 126(2013)* 127(2007)* The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast). WARM MIN WED, JUL 3 THU, JUL 4 FRI, JUL 5 SAT, JUL 6 Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 92(2013) 91(2015) 89(2013)* 90(1957)* Bishop 71(2013) 67(2001) 67(1984) 67(1985) Needles 94(2013) 95(2013) 92(2013) 97(1903) Daggett 86(2013) 88(2001) 84(1984)* 83(2007)* Kingman 82(1906) 80(2013) 78(2021) 79(1981) Desert Rock 86(1996) 83(2015) 80(1981) 83(1992) Death Valley 102(2013) 100(1915) 110(1918) 99(2013) && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Morgan LONG TERM...Outler/Salmen AVIATION...Soulat CLIMATE...Soulat For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter