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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
012 FXUS65 KVEF 040830 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 130 AM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A rare and dangerous long duration heatwave will persist at least through the middle of next week as a strong ridge of high pressure sits over the region. Numerous long standing heat records are likely to be challenged or broken. Dry conditions will prevail through the period with no signs of monsoon moisture until Wednesday at the earliest. && .DISCUSSION...through Wednesday. At midnight, skies were clear areawide and temperatures were even hotter than previous nights, with Needles and Bullhead City still at 104 degrees. As expected, high temps yesterday went up about four degrees areawide from Tuesday, and very slight rises are expected each day through Saturday before the worst of the heat arrives Sunday and stays in place at least through Tuesday if not longer. Any lowering of temps beyond Tuesday will be meager and driven by a modest return of monsoonal moisture, so even if temperatures go down a few degrees, the increased humidity may offset it. With all this in mind, plus the long holiday weekend, plus HeatRisk reaching Major to Extreme in places like Lincoln County and northern Mohave County where we rarely see it, have expanded the Excessive Heat Warning to cover Lincoln and northern Mohave beginning Saturday, plus hoisted Heat Advisories for the Spring Mountains, Sheep Range, and White Mountains of Inyo County beginning Saturday. Ran the new headlines through Wednesday, and also extended the preexisting ones through Wednesday. Record watch: NBM probabilities for reaching 118F at KLAS have been fluctuating run to run as should be expected. The 01Z run gives a 56% probability for Sunday, 32% for Monday, 52% for Tuesday, and 35% for Wednesday. As noted by the previous shift, one wild card will be smoke from fires in California and Utah swirling in the anticyclonic flow over the West and bringing hazy skies. This could make a difference of one or two degrees, maybe even more in areas of thick haze. This could be enough to prevent a temperature record or two from falling, but it will not be enough to make this intense, long-duration heat wave less dangerous. Please stay safe. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light and variable winds will give way to breezy east-northeast winds through the entire day. 40 percent chance of sustained speeds exceeding 10 kts through the morning with occasional gusts to 15 kts. Chances will drop below 10 percent after 23Z. Variable wind directions expected around sunset, but will ultimately favor the northwest overnight. Expect a return of breezy northeast winds Friday morning. No operationally significant cloud cover expected through the TAF period. Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees between 16Z and 07Z. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona, and southeastern California...Breezy northeast winds between 8 and 10 kts expected in the Las Vegas Valley with speeds peaking in the mid- morning and waning through the afternoon. Light winds at KBIH will give way to gusty northwest winds to 20 kts around sunset with speeds decreasing through the evening. KDAG will experience breezy west winds through the morning before becoming light and variable in the afternoon. Gusty west winds return around sunset. Gusty north winds will prevail through the Colorado River Valley this afternoon with speeds to 20 kts. No operationally significant cloud cover through the TAF period. && .CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of the daily record. The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast). MAX THU, JUL 4 FRI, JUL 5 SAT, JUL 6 SUN, JUL 7 Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 115(1985)* 116(2007)* 115(2007)* 116(2017)* Bishop 107(2007)* 108(2007)* 105(2021)* 107(2021)* Needles 121(2007) 121(1989)* 120(1922)* 122(2017) Daggett 117(1991) 118(2007)* 115(2007)* 116(1989)* Kingman 110(2007)* 109(2007)* 108(2017)* 112(2017) Desert Rock 112(1985)* 112(2007)* 111(2007)* 111(2017)* Death Valley 128(2013) 126(2013)* 127(2007)* 129(2007)* The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast). WARM MIN THU, JUL 4 FRI, JUL 5 SAT, JUL 6 SUN, JUL 7 Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 91(2015) 89(2013)* 90(1957)* 93(2018)* Bishop 67(2001) 67(1984) 67(1985) 72(2014) Needles 95(2013) 92(2013) 97(1903) 95(1942) Daggett 88(2001) 84(1984)* 83(2007)* 80(2018) Kingman 80(2013) 78(2021) 79(1981) 80(1917) Desert Rock 83(2015) 80(1981) 83(1992) 82(1981) Death Valley 100(1915) 110(1918) 99(2013) 101(2021) && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Morgan AVIATION...Soulat CLIMATE...JS/JS For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter