Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
435 FXUS65 KVEF 030318 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 818 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Intense and long duration heatwave will commence tomorrow and build across the Mojave Desert and southern Great Basin through early next week. Numerous high temperature records are set to be challenged or broken. Meanwhile, dry conditions will persist with no sign of monsoonal moisture through early next week. && .UPDATE...Not much to report weather wise this evening. Temps at 8 pm remain hot across the lower elevations with more pleasant conditions being reported in the mountains. Skies are clear with locally gusty winds. The forecast has this well in hand so no updates are needed this evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION...101 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024... .DISCUSSION...through next Tuesday. Expanding high pressure ridge across the West will lead to a rare, long-duration intense heat wave across much of the region through at least early next week, and probably longer. Meteorologically, weak troughing persists across the Northern Rockies with a broad high pressure ridge lurking off the Pacific Coast. This offshore ridge will begin to shift eastward across the West Coast Wednesday and Thursday and then amplify and build more broadly by the weekend. This will spell a warming trend, with temperatures this afternoon topping out 4-6 degrees above normal before climbing to 8-12 degrees above normal by the weekend. With this magnitude of heat inbound, heat risk climbs into the high and extreme categories quickly, and the current Excessive Heat headlines look to be in good shape, starting tomorrow morning for our Western zones and the Las Vegas Valley, and expanding into the Colorado River Valley and Northwest Arizona by Thursday. As temperatures climb approaching the weekend, even the higher elevations will begin to feel the impacts of the heatwave, with Lee and Kyle Canyons climbing well into the 80s and lower 90s. Additional heat products may be needed closer to the weekend for these areas and Lincoln County. By early next week, little has changed with a broad ridge of high pressure settling over the southern Great Basin. This will ensure our hot temperatures continue, and Monday and Tuesday feature the days with the highest NBM probabilities for all time record highs around the Las Vegas Valley. To reiteratate, a dangerous and long lasting heat spell begins tomorrow and will persist into the foreseeable future. Extreme Heat Risk is expected for much of our lower elevations including Las Vegas and safety precautions are not just suggested, but urged, as this magnitude of heat is deadly. Our best chance to break the intense heat would be for a monsoonal moisture intrusion to creep in from the south, through the forecast orientation of the high pressure center suggests thats unlikely until at least midweek next week. Thereafter, numerous ensemble members begin to at least hint at the possibility of some low grade monsoonal moisture returning to the area and temperatures easing from their near-record levels by mid-month. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds with speeds of less than 10kts following typical diurnal trends are expected through the TAF period. VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the week under mainly clear skies. Temperatures will remain above 100F through 5Z this evening, and then be above 100F tomorrow between 17Z and 05Z. Temperatures will likely exceed 115F this weekend and early next week. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona, and southeastern California...Winds following typical diurnal trends can be expected across the region through Wednesday. Gusty winds to 20kts are possible at KDAG this evening and early tonight, and southerly winds with a few gusts to 18kts are possible at the Colorado River TAF sites. VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the week under mainly clear skies. Temperatures will continue to rise over the next several days, with readings increasing to 110F-120F by the weekend and early next week. && .CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of the daily record. The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast). MAX WED, JUL 3 THU, JUL 4 FRI, JUL 5 SAT, JUL 6 Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 116(1937)* 115(1985)* 116(2007)* 115(2007)* Bishop 107(1984)* 107(2007)* 108(2007)* 105(2021) Needles 119(2013) 121(2007) 121(1989)* 120(1922)* Daggett 115(2001) 117(1991) 118(2007)* 115(2007)* Kingman 111(1967) 110(2007)* 109(2007)* 108(2017)* Desert Rock 113(2013) 112(1985) 112(2007) 111(2007)* Death Valley 127(2013) 128(2013) 126(2013)* 127(2007)* The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast). WARM MIN WED, JUL 3 THU, JUL 4 FRI, JUL 5 SAT, JUL 6 Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 92(2013) 91(2015) 89(2013)* 90(1957)* Bishop 71(2013) 67(2001) 67(1984)* 67(1985)* Needles 94(2013) 95(2013) 92(2013) 97(1903) Daggett 86(2013) 88(2001) 84(1984)* 83(2007)* Kingman 82(1906) 80(2013) 78(2021) 79(1981) Desert Rock 86(1996) 83(2015) 80(1981) 83(1992) Death Valley 102(2013) 100(1915) 110(1918) 99(2013) && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ UPDATE...Salmen DISCUSSION...Outler AVIATION...Planz For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter